October 17, 2008

NCAA Title Threat Pitfalls

The first BCS rankings will be announced next week and it will be interesting to see how the formula grades the various one-loss teams as well as the remaining unbeaten teams. The debates will continue about whether it is better to lose to a quality team or be upset by a mediocre team will go on as will debating the importance of timing of various losses. The remaining teams in contention have a long road to go even though we have passed the midpoint of the season. Several teams will still stumble and sometimes the tough spots are not the obvious games. This article examines some potential tough spots for most of the BCS championship contenders.

Alabama – The Crimson Tide are off to a great start to the season and the schedule puts the Tide in the SEC driver’s seat. Alabama should be favored in every game until visiting LSU and if they are still undefeated they could even be favorites in Baton Rouge. The game that Alabama could get caught is the prior week at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves do not figure to be an upset threat but Alabama did lose to a Sun Belt team last season. Facing Arkansas State in between SEC games against Tennessee and LSU makes for a tough situation and to make matters worse Arkansas State will have a bye week before this game and will pour everything into the game. PLAY AGAINST ALABAMA: 11/1 vs. Arkansas State

Florida – The Gators are still alive in the national title hunt despite an early season loss and the big game with Georgia will be critical for both teams, serving as a possible elimination game in the national picture. The game comes in a good spot for Florida but the problem spot for the Gators could come against Vanderbilt the following week. Vanderbilt has proven to be a game underdog already this season with several early upsets. The Commodores have had success in this series and they have a bye week prior to the game. PLAY AGAINST FLORIDA: 11/8 at Vanderbilt

Georgia – The Bulldogs will face a brutal schedule in the coming weeks and a number of different games could lead to losses. The best ATS situation to go against Georgia may be against a solid Kentucky defense in a game that will be the third straight non-home game for the Bulldogs. Auburn will be next on the schedule and Kentucky will be ready after a narrow loss at Georgia last season. PLAY AGAINST GEORGIA: 11/8 at Kentucky

LSU – The Tigers were soundly defeated by Florida but the remaining schedule is more favorable for the Tigers with the toughest opponents coming at home. LSU hosts both Georgia and Alabama and although this team does not look like the same caliber squad that made a title run last year they are still a threat to get there. LSU could fall in one of the tough early season match-ups but the best ATS situation to go against LSU might be the end of the season game with Arkansas. The Razorbacks should be showing improvement and it could be a letdown spot on the road if LSU survives the earlier tough games. PLAY AGAINST LSU: 11/29 at Arkansas

Missouri – Last week’s loss was crushing for the Tigers but if they can make a quick rebound and knock off Texas this week the schedule will be very favorable down the stretch. The Tigers would then get another shot at the Big 12 championship game and winning that game looks like a solid path to the BCS title game given the strength of the conference this season. The problem spot for the Tigers likely comes the week after the Texas game win or lose. If Missouri beats Texas it will be a tough follow-up after beating the #1 team in the nation. If Missouri loses it could be tough to get this team back to a high level of intensity and focus after having all the season’s dreams collapse. Colorado does not have a great record through a tough schedule but the Buffaloes are a solid team that could put up points against Missouri’s vulnerable pass defense. PLAY AGAINST MISSOURI: 11/15 vs. Colorado

Ohio State – The Buckeyes are very much alive in the national title hunt although many loathe the thought of Ohio State making a third straight title game appearance. Losing at USC early in the season, even in a blowout, should not hurt the chances if the Buckeyes can run the table in the Big Ten. The next two weeks feature key games for the Buckeyes but the trap game will be at Illinois on November 15th. Even though this is a revenge game for Ohio State it will be tough to face a second straight road game late in the season. The annual Michigan game will close the season the following week and with the Illini sporting a .500 record at this point it will be hard to take them as seriously as they should. PLAY AGAINST OHIO STATE: 11/15 vs. at Illinois

Oklahoma – Despite losing to Texas, the Sooners might have an easier time getting to the Big 12 Championship game. Texas has three tough Big 12 road games remaining while Oklahoma has its toughest games at home before facing Oklahoma State on the road at the end of the year. The Sooners also miss Missouri on the schedule this season while Texas faces the Tigers this week. Assuming the Sooners recover quickly from last week’s dejection, the toughest game will be the final game against the state rival Cowboys. OU has struggled in Stillwater in recent history and the Sooners will face Texas Tech the week before. Oklahoma State is undefeated but given the schedule the next few weeks the Cowboys will likely have a loss or two and will not have the national presence that Texas Tech should have. PLAY AGAINST OKLAHOMA: 11/29 at Oklahoma State

Penn State – It should really not be much of a surprise that Penn State is undefeated at this point in the season. The surprise is that they are the lone undefeated team in the Big Ten and they have climbed into the top 3 of the national rankings. Penn State has dominant numbers this season but schedule has not been impressive. The best win came last week but the Lions were very fortunate with field position against Wisconsin and caught the Badgers in a tough emotional spot after back-to-back narrow losses. The obvious spot for a possible loss is in two weeks playing at Ohio State but this week’s game against Michigan could also be dangerous. The Wolverines are in bad shape as the ugly losses attest but the Wolverine defense is still very good and should limit Penn State, particularly on the ground. This is a tough sandwich game for Penn State and if the Michigan offense avoids turnovers this will be a close game. PLAY AGAINST PENN STATE: 10/18 vs. Michigan

Texas – The Longhorns face a brutal gauntlet of Big 12 games with Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech all in consecutive weeks. Texas was victorious in step one but sweeping those games will be very difficult. The toughest spot may be the lone home game, facing Oklahoma State as the spread would be inflated should Texas knock Missouri this week. Texas is a tough team to play at home but the game could fall in a good situation for the Cowboys, sandwiched in between games against Big 12 lightweights Baylor and Iowa State. PLAY AGAINST TEXAS: 10/25 vs. Oklahoma State

Texas Tech – The Red Raiders likely do not belong on this list as they have played a ridiculously weak schedule so far this season. Things will get tougher although overall the schedule is much more favorable then some of the other top teams in the conference. Tech has not been a strong road team and playing at Kansas could be a problematic situation in two weeks, facing a second straight road contest. It will be the third road game in four weeks for the Red Raiders and a home game against Texas is waiting the next week for a possible look-ahead spot. PLAY AGAINST TEXAS TECH: 10/25 at Kansas

USC – With Oregon and Arizona State out of the way in convincing fashion it appears to be smooth sailing for USC the rest of the season. That may not be the case however as USC has proven to occasionally struggle on the road in conference and it will be every opponent’s biggest game of the season. Arizona is an improved team in the Pac-10 and the Wildcats might have the best situation to face USC, catching the Trojans on the road for the second straight week. If Arizona loses against Cal there could be excellent value on the underdog. PLAY AGAINST USC: 10/25 at Arizona

We are omitting a few teams that do have legitimate chances to make the title game but this group includes the strongest threats. Every team will have an unexpected tough game at some point and we expect those situations listed to be good spots for the opponents, most of which will be solid underdogs.

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September 11, 2008

Momentum Building in Houston

As improbable as it seemed a month ago, the Houston Astros are going to be serious contenders in the National League Wild Card race. Houston has moved to 79-67 and sits just four games behind Milwaukee for the Wild Card lead. Given the way that the Brewers have been slumping and the schedule ahead for Houston, the Astros could find themselves in the postseason.

The Chicago Cubs will still control the fate of the division with a substantial lead but Houston opens up a three game home series with Chicago this weekend. Houston then plays six less than intimidating games for the final road trip, playing at Florida and at Pittsburgh. The final week of the season could provide the Astros the opportunity they need with six home games against Cincinnati and Atlanta.

It is unlikely that the Cubs could fall behind the Astros given the current eight and half game lead but Chicago is playing poorly and faces the toughest schedule ahead of any of the contenders. The Cubs go to Houston and then host Milwaukee and St. Louis for six games before closing on the road with four games against the Mets and three more with the Brewers. The Brewers will have a tough week ahead with the next ten games on the road. Milwaukee is in Philadelphia for four games then plays at Wrigley Field for three before three in Cincinnati. The final six are at home for Milwaukee with the Pirates and the Cubs. St. Louis also remains in the mix and the Cardinals have a manageable schedule although the Cubs and Diamondbacks are mixed in between a heavy dose of the Reds and Pirates.

New York and Philadelphia will be fighting for the NL East title but the Wild Card will be within reach for the team that does not win the division. The Phillies have a huge series with Milwaukee this weekend and then close with non-playoff contenders, playing Atlanta for six games and Florida and Washington for three each. The Mets play the Braves six times in the next ten games and also have a four-game series at Washington. The final seven games features the four-game set with the Cubs and three games with the Marlins.

The Cubs have by far the toughest remaining schedule though they have the biggest cushion to work with. Milwaukee also has a difficult road ahead and the opportunity will be there for the Astros, particularly if the games between the Cubs and Brewers end up one-sided with one team pulling away.

Houston is playing as well as any team in baseball, winning at a 74 percent clip with a 32-11 record since late July. The Astros could cause problems for the Cubs this weekend with a 9-6 record on the season and facing Cincinnati down the stretch could also be a positive as Houston is 10-2 against the Reds this year.

Offense has been the key with Houston scoring 5.3 runs per game. The team does not own an overwhelmingly batting average but they are among the NL leaders in stolen bases and the Astros also have committed the fewest errors in baseball. Houston’s pitching has been fairly average this season but the rotation has improved considerably with Roy Oswalt returning to form and the addition of Randy Wolf has been positive. The amazing thing is that the Astros have made much of this late season push with Carlos Lee on the DL. Despite the incredible stretch of winning there are some concerns as Houston must also now play with Ty Wiggington on the shelf for about a week and Wandy Rodriguez missing his next start.

As the Colorado Rockies proved last season momentum can be a dangerous thing and Houston as a very good chance to find a way into the playoffs given the schedule ahead. If you are a Cubs or Brewers fan, expect a tense couple of weeks ahead. Both teams appeared to be playoff locks a few weeks ago but Chicago is 2-8 in the last ten games and Milwaukee is just 3-7 in the last ten. Both teams will face tougher schedules ahead and they will play each other six times, meaning the Astros will gain ground on either or both of them if they stay hot. Get ready for some drama as both Milwaukee and Chicago have a history of miserably painful endings to seasons and Houston will be the team most likely to benefit if one of those teams collapses.

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September 3, 2008

Wild Card Advantage for Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Brewers have dropped the last two games to the New York Mets in a potential playoff preview as these teams would meet if the playoffs started today. Many Milwaukee fans are counting the games and cheering against the Chicago Cubs but the reality is that the Brewers are much better off staying in the Wild Card position then tracking down the Cubs to take the NL Central title. Milwaukee’s best chance to advance in a potential playoff series would be against the Mets or the Philadelphia Phillies rather than opening up against the Arizona Diamondbacks who the Cubs will likely face.

Even though Milwaukee is 5-1 against Arizona this season the Diamondbacks will be a dangerous team in the playoffs with the quality starting pitching they possess. Brandon Webb will be a Cy Young finalist this season with a 19-6 record and a 3.28 ERA and although Milwaukee got to Webb a bit earlier this season Arizona is 3-0 in the last three games he has pitched against Milwaukee. Most players on the Brewers have never faced Dan Haren and he has delivered an incredible season for Arizona with a 14-7 record and a 3.24 ERA. Arizona is 37-20 when those two pitchers start and they will be a dangerous 1-2 in the playoffs should the Diamondbacks hold on in the NL West.

The Brewers have had success against Arizona’s third starter veteran Randy Johnson, but Johnson has an excellent playoff resume. Part of the reason Milwaukee has hit Johnson so well is because he is left-handed and Milwaukee has owned lefties this season, hitting .275. The Brewers are 31-15 against left-handed starters this season, the best in baseball, despite dropping the last two games against the Mets. Left-handers started both of those games but did not deliver wins for New York as the games were decided in the bullpen. Earlier in the year the Brewers beat Johan Santana and Oliver Perez and the Brewers would have to like their chances against the Mets pitching.

If the Phillies are able to pass the Mets in the standings it would be a favorable match-up for Milwaukee as well. Milwaukee beat lefty Cole Hamels earlier this season and Philadelphia also features left-hander Jamie Moyer as a potential playoff starter. Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton could also start for the Phillies but neither is as threatening as the group of starters that Arizona features. The Phillies have a much better bullpen than Arizona or New York but given the importance of starting pitching in the playoffs a series with Philadelphia would be welcomed.

Viewing the Cubs as the consensus top team in the National League, the Diamondbacks would also be the best candidate to oust Chicago from Milwaukee’s path. The Cubs are 4-2 against Arizona this season but they have not faced Webb and they were able to win a close game despite not getting much production against Haren. The Cubs struggled against Randy Johnson as they were unable to score on him in seven innings a few weeks ago. More importantly there are ugly playoff memories from last season for the Cubs as Arizona swept Chicago in three games. The Cubs are likely to have the home field edge this season but Webb dominated Chicago last year and with Haren and Johnson as the next two starters rather than Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez, Arizona will be a tough team to face in a short playoff series.

Although there is a certain prestige to winning the division title and home field advantage would certainly be preferable, the Brewers are likely better off staying right where they are in the standings if getting to the World Series is the ultimate goal. Home field advantage is certainly nice in a playoff series but the Brewers have been the best road team of the current playoff contenders in the National League. Barring injuries the Brewers also feature a great playoff rotation and with every team in the NL playoff mix being good against left-handed pitching the Brewers are better off being the team to face a lefty-heavy rotation from New York or Philadelphia rather than facing a playoff tested Arizona staff with a lethal right-handed 1-2 punch.

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August 26, 2008

Don't Sleep on the Lions

Everyone knows that the preseason is mostly meaningless but for a perennial loser like the Detroit Lions a 3-0 start should offer some encouragement, especially considering how poorly Detroit ended the 2007 season. The Lions have made a habit of losing in the regular season but Detroit has also been a terrible preseason team. Last week’s convincing win over Cleveland clinched the first winning preseason for the Lions since going 3-1 in 1996.

The NFC North dominated the headlines this summer with the Brett Favre saga and the Lions have rightfully been the forgotten team in the division. Most projections call for Detroit to be the last place team in the division and one of the worst teams in the NFL by some accounts but Detroit could actually be a sleeper team in this division.

John Kitna will not be confused for Tom Brady anytime soon but he has had a productive career when he has been healthy and had the opportunity. Kitna posted big numbers in the first half last season but struggled late in the year and nagging injuries due to poor protection limited his effectiveness and confidence. Still Kitna put up over 4,000 yards passing and delivered some clutch performances. The Lions are also in good position with back-ups Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton both showing some promise and there is continuity as both were with the team last season. Given the questionable QB situations among the other three teams in the NFC North the Lions may actually have the best players in the most important position on the field.

Green Bay obviously has a big question mark with Aaron Rodgers, as he has seen such limited action. Rodgers looked good in relief against Dallas last season but injuries have been a serious problem, leaving the risk that the Packers are forced to start a rookie QB at some point this season. Rodgers will also face severe pressure and scrutiny in replacing Favre and it is hard to say how an inexperienced and unproven QB will handle the situations he will be in, especially if the Packers get off to a poor start to the season.

Minnesota QB Tavaris Jackson made a great deal of mistakes last season and if the running game struggles he has not proven he can make enough plays in the passing game to help Minnesota win. Jackson also suffered a preseason knee injury and although he appears on track for recovery there is a chance that veteran Gus Frerotte will have to be the leader for the Vikings at some point this season. Frerotte is quality veteran to have in a back-up role but not the ideal signal-caller for a team with playoff aspirations. Frerotte is in his 15th season in the league as well so his health could be an issue if he is forced into significant action.

Chicago has announced that Kyle Orton will start over Rex Grossman and although that may be a popular choice among Bears fans he has not exactly proven to be an efficient passer at the pro level, hitting just 53 percent last season. Grossman and Orton have led the Bears to wins in the past but neither has been truly satisfactory in the QB position. The Bears struggled to run the ball last season and unless rookie Matt Forte emerges right away Chicago’s offense could have a very tough time moving the ball.

Green Bay and Minnesota are the favorites in the division based on defense but the Lions may be able to keep pace on offense. Rookie Kevin Smith has made some great plays in preseason action and Tatum Bell has had some success in the league. With Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson the Lions have two potentially elite receivers and Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald have also proven to be capable options. The offensive line has been an issue in the past but new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto has a lot of experience coaching the O-line and 1st round draft pick Gosder Cherilus will add some depth and challenge for the starting right tackle spot. The line will not be the strength of this team but there should be some positive progress this year.

The defense really struggled last season, allowing 378 yards per game and nearly 28 points per game. In this division those numbers will not cut it as all three opponents own solid to very good defenses. Losing Shaun Rogers is a major loss and the defensive line will likely be one of the worst units in the league again. The linebacker corps and secondary should be improved however as Detroit brought in several new players and should have a higher overall talent level. For Detroit to seriously contend the defense will need to improve but in a division with shaky opposing QBs the Lions might be able to get by being opportunistic even if the overall numbers are not that strong.

The Lions started 6-2 and then collapsed last season and another strong start is very possible with the schedule ahead. The Lions start on the road but will square off against Atlanta and rookie QB Matt Ryan in week 1. They host the Packers at home in week 2 which will be a key game and the Lions could be an upset threat catching Rodgers in his first road start. Detroit then hits the road to face an unthreatening San Francisco team and then has an early season bye week. Game four is at home against Chicago so starting at least 3-1 is very realistic. There are some tough games down the stretch but the whole division will be in for a challenge with the AFC South teams on the schedule so it will not likely take an overwhelming record to take first place.

It is just the preseason but the Lions have outscored opponents 66-26 in three games and with the defense not allowing more than ten points in any game there is reason for optimism. Detroit’s offense has been very efficient and although the defense has allowed a lot of pass yardage they have limited the ground game for opponents and stepped up in the red zone. The 3-0 start does not count for anything but the Lions need something positive and this is the best preseason start that Detroit has had in over a decade.

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August 19, 2008

Edge to Arizona in the NL West

With a deal to add veteran Greg Maddux appearing imminent, many feel that the Los Angeles Dodgers will be in the driver’s seat in the NL West despite trailing the Arizona Diamondbacks for most of the season before recently pulling even in the standings. Los Angeles will have strong pitching depth but Arizona has the top-end starters and a more favorable schedule to finish up the season.

Maddux does not have great numbers on the season but many of his recent starts have been strong and he had great success going 6-3 in 12 starts for Los Angeles in 2006 to make the playoffs. Maddux also has been credited with bringing a very positive influence to the clubhouse and on individual pitching staffs in his recent stops. The Los Angeles rotation has received little from Brad Penny and nothing from Jason Schmidt this season but with Maddux added to the rotation with Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Clayton Kershaw, and Hiroki Kuroda, it should be one of the better units in the National League. The Dodgers also own a top-notch bullpen even with the adjustments made following the injury to Takashi Saito.

The Dodgers will have solid pitching but Arizona has the edge with top end starters Brandon Webb and Dan Haren delivering great seasons and Randy Johnson pitching extremely well in the last month. Doug Davis has had some problems recently but Yusmeiro Petit has done a fine job since moving into the rotation although he is not yet going deep into games. Adding Maddux does give the Dodgers a solid rotation 1-5 but the dominance that Webb and Haren offer is a much stronger tool to have in a playoff race. The numbers are pretty clear as Arizona is 35-15 when Webb or Haren start versus the Dodgers being 27-26 when Lowe or Billingsley start.

Both Arizona and Los Angeles have fairly weak schedules down the stretch playing in the NL West and the teams meet for three games in each venue but none of those games will be in the final three weeks. The Brewers and Cardinals currently own a solid edge in the Wild Card standings but given the schedules ahead it would be conceivable for both NL West teams to be in the playoff picture as both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks should produce strong records the rest of the way. The Diamondbacks have to be given the edge in schedule down the stretch however.

Arizona plays a slightly more challenging group of teams with seven games remaining with St. Louis including four on the road and a three game set with Florida this weekend but 22 of the remaining 38 games are at home. The Dodgers play only 15 of the remaining 38 games at home and several games will be across the country out East.

A road trip to Philadelphia starts a ten-game road trip at the end of this week and although four of the games on the trip are against the lowly Nationals, the final three games are in Arizona. The timing of that brutal travel could give the Diamondbacks a huge edge in the head-to-head series that they currently lead 7-5. The Dodgers will also face a second ten-game road trip in September that starts out in nearby San Diego but finishes in Pittsburgh making for some taxing travel heading into the final week of the season. 13 of the final 19 games of the season are on the road for Los Angeles where they currently own a 26-32 record.

The Dodgers are 10-6 since making the Manny Ramirez trade and he has unquestionably provided a spark to the team and makes the lineup much more dangerous. The Dodgers are just 2-4 in road games with Ramirez however including losing a series in San Francisco so the remaining road schedule could be problematic even if the games are against weaker teams.

Arizona has not exactly been playing poorly either with a 14-9 record over the last 23 games. The Diamondbacks are 11-5 in the last 16 road games as they have proven the ability to win away from home to go with a very solid home field record of 33-26. Arizona has battled injuries with several key players on the offense currently sidelined but the Diamondbacks are still averaging 5.8 runs over the past ten games. Since the Ramirez trade Arizona is actually the higher scoring team with 5.1 runs per game versus just 4.8 for Los Angeles despite all the attention and praise the Dodgers have received.

Arizona has been the top team in the NL West for most of the season and they are a team that has the experience of surviving a very tight division race last season. Los Angeles is a good team that will finish the season strong but Arizona should end up on top of the NL West behind the strength of their starting pitching and a home-heavy schedule. It seems like a reach right now but do not rule out the Dodgers in the Wild Card race. The Brewers and Cardinals will face challenging schedules down the stretch and the teams on top of the NL East will be beating up on each other with many games against one another. Milwaukee has a commanding lead right now but the team also owns a history of September struggles and the health issues with Ryan Braun are also a serious concern.

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August 13, 2008

Rangers Still in the Hunt

Although the American League West appears to be all but wrapped up with the Los Angeles Angels continuing to deliver outstanding results, however it is still too early to count the Texas Rangers out of the Wild Card chase. Texas is 15 games out of the division lead but just eight games out of Wild Card position and a favorable schedule will close out the season.

Colorado rode a great offense and timely pitching to the playoffs last season with an incredible run in September and Texas has the offensive power to get on a great roll late in the year. The pitching has been and continues to be what is holding the Rangers back but none of the other contenders in the AL appear ready to take a hold of the Wild Card spot as every team has serious flaws and much tougher schedules await the other teams in Wild Card contention.

The Rangers are greatly aided by the high scoring home ballpark but Texas is hitting .282 on the season while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Texas is also one of the top teams in the AL in taking walks so the Rangers get a lot of extra opportunities. The production is not coming just at home as the Rangers own the fourth best team average in baseball on the road while still averaging 5.3 runs scored per game, more than most teams score at home.

The pitching numbers are very poor for the Rangers both home and away but the home ballpark is a huge factor. All batters are hitting .293 in Arlington and there is average of over 12 runs per game being scored. Texas is generally able to outscore opponents at home with its great offense and Texas is actually 30-33 in road games this season, which is the second highest number of road wins in the entire AL.

The upcoming schedule for the Rangers should provide the opportunity to pick up games on the other AL Wild Card contenders. Texas will play 24 of the remaining 42 games at home and 24 of the remaining games are against losing teams that have no hope of making the playoffs. Texas must play the Angels ten times still this season but the Rangers have gone 4-5 against Los Angeles so far this season the Angels will have little to play for down the stretch. Since they are in the same division and are familiar with each other facing the Angels is not as daunting for the Rangers as it would be for most other teams.

After finishing up this week’s series in Boston, Texas will not play any other winning teams on the road other than the Angels for the rest of the season. The Rangers host series with Tampa Bay and Boston so there will also be opportunities to directly gain ground in the standings but Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Kansas City, and Oakland will make up most of the remaining games.

Boston is the current wild card leader and the Red Sox are a force to be reckoned with given their recent history of success. If Tampa Bay holds course in the AL East which is questionable, Boston would be the team in the best shape to earn the Wild Card. Boston faces a very tough schedule however. 32 of the remaining 42 games for the Red Sox are against winning teams and although Boston will be at home for slightly more of those games it will be a tough finish and the pitching staff could be worn out. Toronto will hold the key for the Red Sox as those teams face off twelve times in the final six weeks and facing the strong Blue Jay pitching staff is not an ideal way to close the year.

Minnesota and Chicago have been going back-and-forth in the AL Central standings but it does not appear that either team will be strong enough to contend for a Wild Card berth given the schedules ahead. Minnesota is about to embark on an insane road stretch, playing 24 of 30 games away from home featuring travel to both coasts and Chicago closes the year with ten of the last 13 games on the road. The White Sox also have Boston, Tampa Bay, New York, and Los Angeles left on the schedule. Either the Twins or the White Sox will likely make the playoffs via the division title but the Wild Card is more likely to come elsewhere.

A lot of people still believe the Yankees have a late season run in them to get into the division or the Wild Card picture but time is running out. The Yankees have 29 games remaining against winning teams and close the year with 16 of the last 26 games on the road. The Yankees will also face a brutal travel stretch to start September going to Detroit, Tampa, Seattle, and Los Angeles in an eight-day span. With a thin pitching rotation and an offense that has little spark New York will have a tough time getting through this closing schedule, let alone making up ground on several quality teams.

The Rays have suffered key injuries in the last few days and the closing schedule for Tampa Bay is also problematic. This could leave a window of opportunity open for the Rangers if Boston or Tampa Bay fall apart and New York, Chicago, and Minnesota keep playing at a mediocre pace. The Rays play 17 of the last 25 games on the road where they have struggled and September starts with 19 straight games against winning teams in this playoff chase.

The Blue Jays are another team that could be presented with a similar opportunity to the Rangers as Toronto will play most of the remaining games against the teams involved in this playoff picture. Toronto will have to win against a much tougher schedule than the Rangers face but if they get on a roll they will make up ground quickly.

Texas is still a long shot sitting eight games out of the playoff picture with Tampa Bay and Boston looking like legitimate contenders but if one of those teams runs into problems the door could open for a Texas offense that can put up huge numbers. Texas has a lot of ground to make up but the Rangers have a schedule that can provide them with a great opportunity.

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August 10, 2008

Brewers Dangerous in Playoffs

The Brewers have rebounded from the ugly four-game series in Milwaukee against the Cubs to deliver five straight wins heading into Monday’s series finale with Washington. Although the Cubs are still heavy favorites in the National League and still hold the lead in the NL Central, the Brewers may have a team that is better suited for a World Series run, as odd as that sounds.

Much is made of the disappointing history for the Cubs, without a World Series title in 100 years but the Brewers have delivered arguably more frustrating results in their short history. Since the Brewers last made the postseason in 1982 the Cubs have made the playoffs five times and although it has been a long while, the Cubs do have two World Series titles to their name. Until last season the Brewers had not had a winning record since 1992 and the history of poor management and players that went to have great success after leaving Milwaukee is considerable.

This year feels much different for the Brewers and although the team faded in September last year the pennant chase experience should pay dividends this season. The schedule also sets up well for Milwaukee to finish in playoff position. Only 15 of the remaining 44 games are against winning teams and half of the remaining games will be played at Miller Park. 16 of the final 26 games in September will be at home and the Brewers have a more favorable finish than the Cubs.

Chicago must play 16 of the final 22 on the road and they must play quality teams in the final two weeks with the Brewers, Cardinals, Mets, and a second series with the Brewers lined up for the final 13 games. The Brewers are in good shape currently holding the Wild Card lead by three games and still within reach for the division title so they will control their fate for making a historic playoff appearance.

The Cardinals, Mets, and Marlins will all be aiming at the Brewers so nothing is assured but should Milwaukee make the playoffs they have to be considered serious threats with high quality starting pitching. Taking a chance adding C.C. Sabathia has proved to be one of the great mid-season deals as the lefthander has produced incredible results. Sabathia is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA and he has four complete games and two shutouts. Should Brandon Webb or some of the other Cy Young candidates falter we could see serious arguments for Sabathia for the award should continue at this clip, as absurd as that sounds given his limited time in the league.

Ben Sheets no longer has to face the pressure of being the #1 starter and he has pitched remarkably well and stayed healthy this season giving Milwaukee arguably the best 1-2 combination in baseball. Manny Parra has dropped off a bit in the last few weeks but he still provides a very solid #3 option and gives the Brewers two lefties in the rotation. Jeff Suppan came up big for the Cardinals in the postseason and although he has been inconsistent he could prove to be a great veteran to have in big games.

Chicago and Arizona would also both have quality starting pitching options in a playoff series among NL contenders but the 1-2 for the Brewers looks much stronger and the Brewers may have the edge in rotation depth as well. Milwaukee’s bullpen has endured some trouble spots this season but no team that will be in the NL playoffs can feel perfectly comfortable with relief pitching. Philadelphia has the best overall numbers but Brad Lidge has had a few recent shaky outings. The Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs all have primary closers on the DL, and Arizona and St. Louis have had bullpen problems just as bad as Milwaukee has dealt with. Expect Milwaukee’s bullpen numbers to improve in the next few weeks with the extra rest that adding Sabathia has brought the relievers.

There is little argument that the Cubs have the superior lineup with a .280 team average but the numbers are not good away from Wrigley Field. The Cubs are hitting just .259 on the road and no regular has a batting average above .300 on the road while several key hitters have terrible road numbers including Aramis Ramirez hitting .217 and Kosuke Fukodome hitting .229. Milwaukee does not experience such dramatic drops in batting average on the road and several key players including Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy have posted better numbers away from home giving Milwaukee better balance.

Only four teams in baseball have winning road records on the season and the Brewers are one of those teams. Milwaukee has also completed four more road games than Chicago and the Cubs will face a road heavy finish down the stretch as the pressure and national attention build. Based on the four game series in Milwaukee that Chicago swept, the Cubs remain the team to beat in the NL but Chicago was a post-season flop last season being swept in three games. Chicago will likely be the favorites heading into the playoffs but should Milwaukee make the postseason they could be the more dangerous team.

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August 4, 2008

Tiger Charge in August

The Detroit Tigers were heavy favorites to win the AL Central and considered a possible World Series team in spring training as a couple of big moves created a very dangerous lineup. An incredibly poor start to the season left Detroit with a big hole to climb out of and there is still a significant but not insurmountable gap between Detroit and serious contention with the Twins and White Sox on top of the division. August has the potential to be the month where Detroit finally hits its stride however as the schedule lines up favorably.

Miguel Cabrera was the centerpiece of the additions with expectations of an MVP-type season to lead Detroit. Cabrera has taken his share of criticism but it is hard to argue with his production at this point in the season (.298 AVG, 20 HRs, 82 RBIs) and if the Tigers make a push in the coming months he could well be raising the MVP trophy. With Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson recovered from injuries and Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco continuing to solidify the lineup this is still a team that can produce big numbers. Gary Sheffield and Edgar Renteria have been the most disappointing members of the lineup but if the veterans can come up with solid play in the final two months this can still be a team that makes a run.

The trade of Ivan Rodriguez comes a bit of a surprise and perhaps a signal of surrender but Brandon Inge might be able to find his swing with a more consistent spot in the lineup. In all this team is still capable of posting huge numbers on offense and although they have not lived up to the spring training hype, Detroit owns one of the top batting averages in baseball at .277 and they have been especially effective against left-handed pitching.

August started with an ugly three game series in Tampa where the Tigers were swept but this could be a great month for Detroit. The Tigers must now play three games against the White Sox in Chicago in an important division series but then the schedule becomes very favorable. From August 8th to early September the Tigers play 20 of 26 games at home and all of the home games until the final four are against teams that have losing records. The Tigers play a three-game set in Texas and a three-game set in Kansas City so the road games are not exactly daunting locations either and the Rangers will be the only winning team faced in the first 22 games of that stretch.

The Tigers should be able to pick up some ground in the division as both the White Sox and Twins will face more challenging scheduling. Chicago must play Boston six times in August and although Chicago is at home for much of the month they do face travel to both coasts mixed into the schedule. Chicago also must play three games against a very solid Tampa Bay team at home. The Twins just took over first place in the division but the August schedule could send Minnesota back to the middle of the pack as the Twins will play 24 of 30 games away from home starting in mid-August, featuring travel to both coasts and quality opponents.

Pitching has been the main issue for the Tigers as Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis, two pitchers expected to anchor the rotation have produced three wins. Justin Verlander and Kenny Rogers have not enjoyed their best seasons and Nate Robertson has labored with a 6.06 ERA. There is some hope however as Zach Miner has pitched well since moving to the rotation and rookie Armando Galarraga has delivered great results for Detroit this season.

The bullpen has been a huge problem for the Tigers and if Detroit continues to deliver mediocre results relief pitching will be to blame. The Tigers have blown 18 save opportunities this season and own one of the highest bullpen ERAs in baseball. There appeared to be some hope for the bullpen with the return of Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney but an injury has derailed Zumaya again and Rodney has pitched horribly in recent weeks. Closer Todd Jones has also hit the DL with a shoulder issue although he has been part of the problem with a very high ERA. The bullpen was not effective so it is possible that the replacement pitchers could show improvement but Kyle Farnsworth and Rodney managed to blow a great outing by Galarraga last Sunday.

Although Detroit’s pitching makes them a flawed team, the AL Central is up for grabs as Minnesota and Chicago have not proven capable of running away with the division. If the bats get hot in the final two months the Tigers could come up with a great finish to the season and they are still within reach of catching either team and climbing into the division or even the Wild Card race. They may not have enough to make the playoffs but expect Detroit to be much closer by the end of August as the schedule sets up for a strong month despite the inauspicious start.

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July 24, 2008

Twins and Cards Falling Fast

It has been a tough start to the week for a pair of teams that have remarkably stayed in playoff contention thus far in the MLB season. It is not the end of the road for the Minnesota Twins and the St. Louis Cardinals but both teams received tough doses of reality as they were passed in the standings by teams that are more likely to hold up over the long haul. Both teams should remain competitive teams and there could actually be some wagering value gained by having these squads fall out of serious playoff contention.

Minnesota was projected to be a losing team this season after giving up two star players in trading Johan Santana and losing Torii Hunter to free agency. The Twins have actually been a much better team than last season however and the starting rotation that has been completely turned over from the start of last season has performed well. Minnesota has been a very sound hitting team despite limited power numbers as the Twins have one of the top team averages in the AL and have been fantastic with runners in scoring position. Minnesota’s defense and bullpen have not been up to normal standards for the organization however and the young pitching could wear down late in the season.

Minnesota has not been a strong road team and in the recent series in New York the Twins were at their absolute worse. Uncharacteristic mistakes and a complete lack of offense led to a miserable series sweep, outscored 25-7. Minnesota’s young starters were not the main problem in the series but the team was clearly intimidated by the veteran Yankees team and the poor history for Minnesota in this ballpark in recent years. It is too soon to count out the Twins but the Tigers are gaining momentum and the White Sox appear to be a more solid team in the AL Central. The Twins were once in solid Wild Card position but that spot appears destined to go to an East team again as the Rays, Red Sox, and now Yankees will be tough to keep pace with.

There is some hope for the Twins with Francisco Liriano posting brilliant minor league numbers but the rotation has not been a weakness for Minnesota this season. Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey have all pitched well enough to keep their spots in the rotation and although Livan Hernandez has had some struggles he owns ten wins and is the lone veteran presence of the group. Liriano would make for a valuable weapon in the bullpen but that is not an option for the Twins after steadily building his workload to come back effectively from his surgery. Liriano will get his chance but the Twins may have played themselves out of contention by that point.

The Twins will also endure an awful scheduling stretch in the coming weeks as the Republican National Convention will be taking place in Minneapolis and the Metrodome will be unavailable. Minnesota plays 24 of 30 games on the road from August 21st to September 21st as the Twins will travel to both coasts for lengthy excursions. If there is any hope in the Twins schedule it is that 19 of the remaining 28 division games are at home and the road games are against the less threatening teams in Cleveland and Kansas City as Minnesota has already completed the road games in Detroit and Chicago.

In St. Louis the Cardinals were also a great surprise to stay right with the Cubs early in the season and remain in Wild Card position for most of the season until recently being passed by the Brewers. St. Louis does not look like a playoff threat on paper with a mostly unproven lineup and big holes in the pitching staff due to injuries. The St. Louis bullpen has also had big setbacks with initial closer Jason Isringhausen completely breaking down. The Cardinals had a great sweep of San Diego to start the second half wiped out by home losses to Milwaukee and St. Louis may never get back in the race. St. Louis is still just a few games back of the Wild Card and the division lead but things are not looking promising at this point.

St. Louis has held ground in the standings based on performing well on the road as the Cardinals are one of the few teams in baseball with a winning away record. The Cardinals face quality teams in the next several series so this will be a critical time for St. Louis. The Cardinals have had some of the worst bullpen numbers in baseball with 23 blown save opportunities leading all of baseball but St. Louis has had better than expected starting pitching. There is some potential with top starters Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter poised for returns from injury soon. Given that the Cardinals received little from its top two starters in the first half or anything from potential starters Mark Mulder, Anthony Reyes, or Matt Clement it is amazing that St. Louis has hung around. Kyle Lohse has been the savior for St. Louis and Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer have at least been able to make consistent starts and pick up a few wins.

Like the Twins, the Cardinals have been successful with solid hitting as St. Louis owns a .275 team average. St. Louis also owns one of the top on-base-percentages in baseball as only a few teams have walked more than the Cardinals. St. Louis has above average power numbers with Albert Pujols, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Ludwick leading the way and with Tony LaRussa managing the Cardinals have found ways to stay competitive. St. Louis plays the Cubs nine times yet this season so the Cardinals will have the opportunity to control their own destiny but there are some tough road trips ahead and the starting rotation will need to get some of the injured arms back to have a chance.

Although Minnesota and St. Louis do not appear to have the staying power to make the playoffs and we will not likely see a repeat of the great 1987 World Series, both teams could remain profitable for the rest of the season. Minnesota is currently the second most profitable team in baseball and the Cardinals are currently 6th with steady profits as well. The reason is simple as neither team has dominant big name starting pitching so even at home these teams are never steep favorites. Against good teams or big name starters the Twins and Cardinals can regularly be found as underdogs despite posting two of the better records in baseball. The Cardinals have been a great road team to back and the Twins have been a great team to back at home. Those trends could continue to hold up so even if the Twins and Cardinals fall out of the pennant race keep them on your radar for possible play-on situations as both teams feature a great deal of young players and good coaching so it is unlikely there will be any sort of mentality of giving up on the season.

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July 11, 2008

MLB All Star Break Awards

Everyone has their own take on who would win the hypothetical All-Star Break awards, here our selections for the big four categories. Very rarely do the mid-season leaders wind up with the hardware as a lot can happen and the performance of these teams down the stretch should also play a vital role.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
There are several worthy candidates in the National League but how the team has fared should play some role in the voting. Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones have had tremendous individual seasons but the Braves have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball and the Astros have never been in contention since early in the year. Matt Holiday and Xavier Nady have also had great seasons on losing teams and the power numbers from Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard have been tremendous. The Cubs have been the top team in the National League but Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee have not had a truly transcendent MVP caliber seasons. The one player that has the most staggering numbers on a team that has overachieved is Albert Pujols. The numbers are truly remarkable although his home run and RBI totals are not as high as some of his peers due to missing several games. Pujols is hitting .350 and he has struck out just 30 times in nearly 300 at-bats. No player has a greater impact on a lineup and the Cardinals would certainly be a losing team without Pujols.

Others Deserving Consideration: Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
Although the Rangers are not a team that is truly in contention right now they have been a better team than many expected. 95 RBIs at the break is a truly staggering number, especially considering that he is 25 RBIs or a very good month ahead of his closest follower in the AL. Hamilton is also hitting .310 with 21 home runs and he has seven steals while playing excellent defense. Several of his Texas teammates deserve mention as well as Milton Bradley has been incredible when healthy and Ian Kinsler leads the AL in batting while providing a great threat on the base paths. Alex Rodriguez deserves credit for doing more in 75 games than all but a few have done in 90 but his team is also failing to meet expectations. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin are posting great numbers on a first place team and Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer have excelled to keep the Twins in contention. Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis also deserve credit for the first place Red Sox. The Angels have been the most consistent team in the AL but there is not a standout candidate in that lineup. Hamilton should get the edge with the incredible all around numbers but Texas needs to stay in the mix with a winning record for him to win at the end of the year given the advantage he has at his home park.

Others Deserving Consideration: Ian Kinsler, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye, Justin Morneau

NL Cy Young: Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds
It is odd that the two top candidates for this award come from two of the worst teams in the league but Volquez and Tim Lincecum are the two clear choices at the break. Lincecum has an incredible 11-2 record pitching for the Giants and he leads baseball in strikeouts with a great ERA as well. He is an exciting young pitcher but he does benefit from pitching in a pitcher’s park where Volquez has produced great numbers in a home run haven. Volquez leads the NL with a 2.29 ERA and he is only a few strikeouts behind Lincecum for the league lead while posting a 12-3 record for the Reds. Lincecum has pitched 12 more innings to compile just a slight strikeout lead and Volquez is just one win behind Brandon Webb for the NL lead in wins. When the season is completed one of the pitchers on a playoff team might seal up the award as Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, and Cole Hamels have all produced successful seasons on quality teams. If the Mets keep playing well it is not too early to rule out two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana either, despite his 8-7 record he has historically been a great second half pitcher and he is currently fourth in the NL in ERA.

Others Deserving Consideration: Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Johan Santana

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
The AL race is wide open but Lee would be the best choice at this point in the season despite playing for a lousy Cleveland Indians team. Lee has the second best ERA in the AL to go along with a 12-2 record and he has been consistently successful all season long as his numbers have not dropped off considerably despite an incredible start to the season. Terry Francona agrees with the assessment of Lee and has given him the starting nod in his first All-Star game. Justin Duchscherer has a miniscule ERA and has been a great success in the starting role but he does pitch in one of the lowest scoring ballparks in baseball. Roy Halladay has been incredible at times this season and has carried a bigger workload than most starters but the Blue Jays have disappointed this season and he has several poor starts mixed in with his great efforts. The dramatic advantage in innings pitched has led to great strikeout numbers and Halladay could play his way into another Cy Young award with similar numbers in the second half. Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Jon Lester have posted solid numbers for first place teams but they are not quite on par with Lee or Halladay. Closers will definitely get strong consideration at this point in the season, Francisco Rodriguez has 38 saves and a strong ERA, Mariano Rivers has not blown a save yet and Joe Nathan is again posting great numbers.

Others Deserving Consideration: Roy Halladay, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Justin Duchscherer, Jon Lester

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June 25, 2008

July Fade Ahead for Cubs?

The Chicago Cubs have been the biggest story in baseball so far this season and rightfully so. 100 years since the last World Series title with many disappointments in between the Cubs are off to a great start to the season, currently holding the best record in baseball as we approach the halfway point of the season. Chicago appears to have a team that could stay in the postseason mix and loyal fans will say that this year feels different but fortunately Chicago fans have the stomach for more potential disappointment.

The Cubs have enjoyed a favorable early season schedule with significantly more games at home where they own a dominant 32-9 record at Wrigley Field. Chicago is just 16-20 on the road this season and the July travel schedule looks very threatening. From June 27th to July 31st the Cubs will play 20 of 30 games away from home which might tighten up the race in the very competitive NL Central.

Chicago will face challenging travel as well. Following the in-town road series at U.S. Cellular Field the Cubs head to San Francisco without a travel day and then go directly back to the Midwest to play at St. Louis for three games to make nine consecutive road games in three different cities. A six-game home stand precedes the All-Star Break but several Cubs will likely be making the trip to New York adding to the hectic month.

Chicago then closes the month with ten of the last 14 games away from home, playing tough opponents, going to Houston and Arizona, then playing a home series against the Marlins before a huge four-game set in Milwaukee to close the month. So far this season the Cubs have played just three road series against teams that currently have winning records, going just 2-7 at Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. The next five weeks feature 13 games on the road against teams with winning records including seven games against the divisional rivals that are chasing them.

It is too early to look ahead to the September schedule but should the NL Central be a tight race in the final month the Cubs will not be in a good position to finish strong as they play 16 of the final 22 games away from Wrigley Field. It could end up being a very exciting race as the Cubs play St. Louis and Milwaukee six times each in September.

Some more bad news for the Cubs is how well the key division opponents have played against them. Milwaukee is a team that appears to be surging with solid play in the last several weeks and the Brewers account for four of the nine home losses for the Cubs, winning two series in Chicago and yet to host the Cubs this season. St. Louis also won the only series between those teams so far this season. Chicago is just 18-15 on the season versus the NL Central, as both the Cardinals and Brewers own superior division records.

The Brewers also own a great home field edge with a 25-13 record so Milwaukee should remain a playoff threat. The Cardinals have been an excellent road team with a 22-16 record away from home so the Cardinals could very well stay in the mix even despite battling key injuries. Pittsburgh, Houston, and Cincinnati do not appear to have the consistency to stay in the race but all three teams have been more competitive than in past seasons. The good news for the Central contenders is that all three teams, the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers own superior records to every other team in the NL, meaning there is a good chance the Wild Card will come from this division.

Given the recent injuries to Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano coupled with the tough schedule ahead it could be a long second half of the season for Cubs fans that appear a little too presumptive of the team’s destiny this season. The Brewers and Cardinals are currently available around 5-1 to win the NL Central, either might be an attractive wager considering how quickly the division lead could shrink in the coming weeks and considering that right now both teams are within five games despite how well the Cubs have played.

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June 10, 2008

MLB Off-season Trade Review

A glance at the statistical leader board in several MLB categories will find a common thread. Several players posting big numbers this season were involved in off-season trades. It was a rare winter with several big-name deals and so far most of them have panned out fairly evenly, but the impact has been significant as the players involved have been huge contributors. Let’s examine a few of the deals through the first two months of the season as well as look ahead to the long-term impact.

Tigers/Marlins: (3B Miguel Cabrera and LHP Dontrelle Willis for LHP Andrew Miller, OF Cameron Maybin, C Mike Rabelo, RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogia De La Cruz and RHP Dallas Trahern):

This was the headline making deal that was supposed to transform the Tigers into the top team in the American League and send the Marlins into another season of rebuilding with young unproven players. The new cornerstones of the deal, Cabrera and Maybin have both been disappointments but Florida has to be considered the early winner of the deal in terms of what they didn’t pay for their two big-name stars. The bottom line in a trade is about improving teams and the Marlins have been a very competitive team while Detroit has been the biggest disappointment in baseball. After a rough start in the minors this season Maybin has shown recent progress and at 21 he is still long on potential. Miller has been inconsistent in his starts for the Marlins but he has put together several quality outings to show that his potential is there. Rabelo and Badenhop have also contributed already for the Marlins. Cabrera does not have terrible numbers with a .270 average, eight home runs, and 36 RBIs but he has not been the leader and all-star caliber player that was expected. Dontrelle Willis has been a complete disaster although hopefully his injuries can be blamed. This is a deal that can not be judged fully until Miller and Maybin have more time to perform but it looks like the Marlins made the right move and the Tigers could have made a franchise killing move with the huge contracts and prospects given up.

Mariners/Orioles: (LHP Erik Bedard from the Orioles for CF Adam Jones, LHP George Sherrill, RHP Chris Tillman, RHP Kam Mickolio and LHP Tony Butler.)

Erik Bedard has not made a smooth transition to the Northwest and it might be easy to blame Bedard for the Mariners struggles. He has not pitched on par with what was a Cy Young caliber start to the 2007 season but the problems for the Mariners have been far deeper. There are already talks that Bedard might be shopped this season but if the Mariners are serious about making a run next season they should at least keep him on board while he’s under contract through 2009. Jones has had an opportunity to get regular at-bats for the Orioles although he has not made a big impact. Sherrill has been the prize however as he owns 21 saves and has shored up a Baltimore bullpen that was a major issue last season. As a result the Orioles have remained competitive in the tough AL East and a promising crop of pitchers have been added to the minor league system while cutting costs.

Rangers/Reds: (OF Josh Hamilton for RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Danny Herrera)

This has been an impressive deal for both sides as Hamilton would likely be the top MVP candidate in the American League and Volquez would make a very strong case for the National League Cy Young award. Both teams are still below .500 and far behind in the standings in their respective divisions however. Both teams are far enough away from being a contender that one transcendent impact player may not be enough to make a major improvement on the team but both teams have to feel good about the deal.

Mets/Twins: (LHP Johan Santana for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Phil Humber, RHP Kevin Mulvey and RHP Deolis Guerra).

Many criticized the Twins for not getting enough for Santana but given the packages offered by the Yankees and Red Sox it looks like Minnesota did okay for itself. Most doubted that Gomez was ready to contribute at the plate but he has been an electrifying leadoff hitter for the Twins and although he strikes out a lot and has had some miscues in the outfield he has brought a lot of excitement to the team and been a big part of keeping Minnesota competitive. The pitchers have not shown great promise so far in the minors but time will tell for that part of the deal. Santana has been very good for a Mets team that has had many problems. Many expect lights out numbers from the left-hander in every start and that has not been the case but he has been a consistent winner and a key stopper for a Mets team that would be in very bad shape without him. He may not live up to monstrosity of the deal he signed but his value is significant.

A’s/Diamondbacks: (RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson for LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, 1B Chris Carter, OF Carlos Gonzalez, OF Aaron Cunningham and LHP Brett Anderson).

Haren has been a nice addition for Arizona but the two pitchers that the A’s acquired have been very solid for Oakland. Eveland and Smith have delivered consistent results taking regular turns in the Oakland rotation and this looks like it will work out in a similar fashion to the trade that initially sent Haren to Oakland. Some of the other prospects have posted strong minor league numbers with Gonzalez hitting extremely well in AAA and Anderson looking like a future major league pitcher.

Phillies/Astros: (RHP Brad Lidge and IF Eric Bruntlett for OF Michael Bourn, RHP Geoff Geary and 3B Mike Costanzo).

Lidge has transformed the Phillies into an elite team in the National League and Philadelphia amazingly has some of the best bullpen numbers in baseball starting with Lidge. Bourn makes an impact on the base paths but he is hitting just .224 so his opportunities have not been significant enough to make a big impact.

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May 23, 2008

NL Go-Against Vets

Veteran pitchers provide a proven commodity and experience that does matter in a starting role. However many starting pitchers that are well known are overvalued significantly even if the numbers are not there to back it up. The reasons are simple, for example imagine a casual fan that is out in Vegas for the weekend trying to play some games. If he hasn’t been following the numbers closely is he more likely to back Jair Jurrjens and Edinson Volquez, or will he gravitate towards Roy Oswalt or Brad Penny at similar prices? Here is a look at some of better known starters in the National League and some reasons that you should be looking the other direction in their starts until they start to turn things around.

Roy Oswalt 4-4, 5.61 ERA (Houston 5-6, -$176)
Roy Oswalt still brings serious name recognition and he has been favored in eight of his eleven starts despite playing for a Houston team that started the year with fairly low expectations around baseball. The Astros have propelled themselves into the thick of the playoff chase but Oswalt has had little to do with it. The veteran right-hander has allowed three or more runs in ten of his eleven starts and opposing hitters are hitting .302 against him. Oswalt has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past decade but his year-by-year numbers have slipped with an increased ERA and reduced strikeout counts each of the past three seasons. There has been absolutely no evidence pointing towards it, but given the presumed guilt of fellow Houston pitchers Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte there could be some merit in speculation that Oswalt may have been enhanced during his peak years. The Astros are scoring runs but Oswalt is a risky proposition right now, ‘over’ plays may also be worth looking at with Oswalt on the mound.

Derek Lowe 2-4, 5.34 ERA (Los Angeles 6-4, +$118)
With 110 wins since 1999, Derek Lowe is among the league leaders in baseball for that time frame. Lowe was often an overlooked pitcher on good teams earlier in his career but he now brings a higher price as a proven veteran. Lowe has been favored in six of ten starts this season and although the Dodgers are plus money behind Lowe it has had little to do with the starting pitcher. The Dodgers have scored in the ninth inning to take the lead and win in four Lowe starts this season, accounting for the 6-4 mark in his starts. Lowe has only left with the lead twice this season and his numbers are alarming with higher than normal number of walks allowed and opponents hitting .305. Lowe has allowed 28 runs in his last five starts and he has made it past the sixth inning just once this season despite normally being a quality innings-eater. Lowe went 16-8 in 2006 but he had a losing record in his two other seasons with Los Angeles despite playing in a great pitcher’s park. There will be value in going against Lowe in several match-ups especially with the poor early starts from NL West opponents like Colorado and San Diego.

Brad Penny 5-4, 5.34 ERA (Los Angeles 6-4, +$197)
Normally a strong starter early in the season Brad Penny has seen his numbers start to fade much sooner this season. With Lowe and Penny in the rotation it is a credit to the Dodgers that they have kept pace with Arizona in the NL West and the bullpen deserves a lot of credit. The great set of relievers have not been able to bail out Penny in many starts this season however as he has really pitched poorly in recent starts. Like Lowe, Penny was a recent beneficiary to a late Dodger rally to boost his money numbers but he has not pitched well enough to win in most starts this season despite his five victories. Opponents are hitting .306 against the right-hander and he has allowed nine or more hits in a game five times this season. Penny has delivered strong strikeout to walk ratios in past seasons but this year he has just 30 strikeouts compared with 22 walks in nearly 60 innings. Penny has been hit the hardest in recent games with 20 runs allowed in his past three starts, despite two of those three games being played at home. Penny had a career season last year and the numbers are starting balance out though the value on Penny has not. The Dodgers have been a favorite of -130 or higher five times this season and the opposing underdogs will be appealing plays in many upcoming Penny starts.

Brett Myers 2-5, 5.76 ERA (Philadelphia 3-7, -$665)
The experiment to remove Brett Myers from the closer’s role has worked out beautifully for the Philadelphia bullpen as the unit has some of the best numbers in baseball and Brad Lidge has delivered a tremendous start to the season. Inserting Myers back into a starting role has been much less successful however as Myers has been one of the worst money pitchers in baseball on account of being favored in seven of ten starts this season. Myers has allowed 15 home runs this season in just 59 innings pitched and the Phillies have lost five consecutive games that he has started. Opposing hitters are hitting .307 against Myers on the season and his WHIP is 1.60. In road games Myers has been especially terrible with a 0-4 record, a 7.39 ERA, and an absurd 2.00 WHIP. The Phillies have been favored in three of his five road starts which led to the big losses for Myers backers. Philadelphia’s offense makes them appealing to wager on but in reality the Phillies are just a few games above .500 and statistically the offense has not been as productive as the perception. Myers may not last much longer in the starting role but he certainly should be considered as a go-against option until then.

Ian Snell 2-3, 4.84 ERA (Pittsburgh 6-4, +$237)
Snell may not be a household name to casual fans yet but he emerged as a great underdog option with the Pirates in the last two years. Snell is 26-27 the last three seasons despite playing on terrible Pittsburgh teams but this season there are some concerns with backing him. The value is gone with Snell even though Pittsburgh has not proven to be significantly improved. Snell was a favorite in five of ten starts this season despite pitching for a perennial loser. Snell was a great road pitcher in 2006 but this season his numbers on the road have been significantly worse, hurting the big underdog opportunities. Snell has typically had very low walk numbers but this season he has already walked 24 batters in 57 innings despite walking just 68 in 208 innings last season. Opponents hit just .250 off Snell last season but this year opposing batters are hitting .310 and he has allowed eight or more hits in six of his last eight starts. The best case scenario is Snell’s value may climb back up and he will start to return to form but right now he should be avoided as the limited value is not worth the risk of backing the Pirates and shaky recent results from Snell.

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May 15, 2008

Overrated MLB Injury Impact

Injuries are part of baseball and every team will have to deal with some setbacks over the course of the year. Some are obviously detrimental while others may provide a valuable opportunity for a player ready to break out. Big name position player injuries get considerable attention but the impact on teams is typically overrated.

As seen below many teams that have lost a star player have continued at similar or even improved clips. Injuries to pitchers can be a bit more damaging but the impact is tougher to quantify. Most teams have very capable players to plug into the lineup off the bench or in the minor leagues if a key player misses time. If the injury lasts for several months an impact can be more noticeable but in the short term most teams can survive and even uncover a talented player. Many great players got their chance to see everyday action due to an injury to a veteran and it is not always a bad thing to shake up the lineup a bit. Here are some of big name players currently on the DL and a look at the short term impact.

Jorge Posada, C, New York (20-21 overall, 8-8 without Posada)
Posada has certainly established himself as one of the great catchers in baseball and he is coming off a career season, hitting .338 in 2007. Posada was hitting .302 before hitting the DL, and his loss should not be understated for his leadership and comfort level with the Yankees pitching staff. With that said, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang are the only Yankee starters that have pitched enough with Posada to expect an impact with the change. Mussina was typically caught by Jose Molina in many games anyhow and he is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in the last four starts since the Posada injury. Staff ace Wang has an ERA of 1.67 with Molina behind the plate versus a 3.93 ERA with Posada. Andy Pettitte actually has pitched best with Chad Moeller behind the plate giving two solid starts for an ERA of 1.93. With Molina, Pettitte’s ERA is 5.09 and with Posada it is 6.30. Posada’s bat has been missed but his absence can not be blamed for the poor record in New York.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York (20-21 overall, 8-9 without Rodriguez)
New York’s offense has been very unproductive this season and an easy excuse is the injury to Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees lineup is missing last season’s MVP but New York is 8-9 in games without Rodriguez this season, a bit worse than the 12-12 record with him in the lineup. Rodriguez had produced good overall numbers on the season but was not close to approaching the hot clip he started the 2007 season at. Morgan Ensberg has certainly been a downgrade for New York, hitting just .224 with only one home run but the Yankees have had bigger problems to blame for the mediocre results.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado (15-25, 5-9 without Tulowitzki)
Troy Tulowitzki’s injury seems likely to take a toll on the Rockies and Colorado is just 5-9 since he has exited the lineup. It has been an awful season for the Rockies and Colorado had gone 2-9 in the eleven games prior to his injury so it can not be considered a major factor in the decline from the great run in 2007. Tulowitzki was hitting .152 on the season and although his defense and leadership will be missed he was not helping the Rockies win with his bat so far in 2008. Tulowitzki’s replacement Clint Barmes is hitting .337 so the Rockies and Barmes had great big-league success at the plate before his own injury brought an opportunity for other Rockies players. Barmes has made just one error in 13 games so far this season as well so his defense has been good enough to fill Tulowitzki’s shoes.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas (20-22, 11-5 without Blalock)
After a defining moment at the All-Star game a few years ago everyone is still waiting for Hank Blalock to be a consistent slugger for the Rangers. Blalock was hitting .299 with three home runs so he was off to a solid start but the Rangers were not. Since his exit however the Rangers have been hot and Blalock’s replacement Ramon Vazquez has been a big part of it. Vazquez is hitting .333 with 7 RBIs and 13 runs in just 66 at-bats. Those numbers best Blalock’s production in significantly fewer at-bats. He hit a walk-off home run in a recent game and his defense has been comparable so the Rangers may not need to rush Blalock back into action as long as the wins keep coming.

Josh Willingham, LF, Florida (23-17, 8-6 without Willingham)
The Marlins have one of the top records in baseball despite missing a key bat from the middle of the lineup in May. Willingham was a key part of the hot start for Florida hitting .341 with six home runs, 16 RBIs, and 16 runs. Florida is still playing great ball with veteran Luis Gonzalez playing everyday in left field. Gonzalez does not have quite the run-producing numbers that Willingham was delivering but he is actually riding a seven-game hitting streak and hitting .333 since moving into a regular spot in the lineup. Gonzalez provides a veteran presence and gives quality at-bats and the Marlins have not dropped off despite the shuffle in the lineup. Once Willingham returns to the plate, the Marlins can only benefit from having Gonzalez with more playing time under his belt.

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April 30, 2008

Sunshine State Bullpens Lead Baseball

Relief pitching is often an underrated aspect of baseball handicapping but it is no coincidence that some of the top money teams in baseball through the first month of the season are also among the leaders in bullpen ERA. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the best team in baseball in just about every measure through April and the Diamondbacks also boast some of the best relief pitching numbers as well. That is not a big surprise, but the two teams in Florida are a big surprise to currently be ranked as the top two bullpens in baseball based on ERA.

The Florida Marlins were not expected to contend in a tough NL East division with powerful lineups and star-studded rotations stacking the Phillies, Mets, and Braves but Florida will be right in the mix as we enter May. The Marlins were a last place team in 2007 but they were mostly competitive, winning 71 games. A Florida squad that many expected would be the worst in baseball in 2006 finished just a few games below .500 and this year’s Marlins squad was expected to struggle especially after giving up their two most well known players in a trade with Detroit. The Marlins still have a lineup that can put pressure on opposing defenses and Hanley Ramirez has proven that he could well be the best all around player in the game. The key for Florida’s solid start to the season, and the key for the Marlins to stay competitive will be pitching however.

Florida has won two World Series titles in the last eleven years and they have an effective system of shuffling through young talent. They alienate fans in the process by refusing to keep the big-name, big-contract players and filing the roster with young unproven players but the system works. Florida is stocked with young pitching talent which is the most valuable commodity in baseball and once the Marlins have a team that can compete they have the chips to pull trade-deadline deals to make a playoff push. The Marlins likely won’t be to that point this season but the young pitching staff is showing a great deal of promise.

Anyone that knows anything about statistics will tell you that the Marlins have been fortunate this season as they have actually been outscored despite being a few games above .500. The winning record won’t hold up if that continues to be the case but an effective bullpen is a key part of winning close games. Florida’s bullpen has the best numbers in the National League with a 2.73 ERA as opponents are hitting just .234 against Florida’s relievers. Florida has won six of the nine games decided in the bullpen this season and Florida’s pitching staff remains strong despite a wave of injuries that would be devastating to most teams. Florida currently has six pitchers that would likely be on the big-league roster if healthy sitting on the disabled list, three starters and three relievers.

The trio of relievers that have been the most important for the Marlins are Renyel Pinto, Justin Miller, and Kevin Gregg. Lefthander Pinto has posted incredible numbers so far this season and he has actually been tougher on right-hander hitters as they are hitting just .175 against him. Pinto had good numbers in 57 appearances last season but he has stepped it up this season with an ERA of 1.02 in 14 appearances. The Blue Jays had little success with Miller as a starter but he has found a home in the Florida bullpen and he has allowed just four runs this season. Many seem to still be skeptical of Gregg as a full-time closer but he saved 32 games last year in 36 opportunities. He has done his job this season despite only four saves so far. Doug Waechter and Matt Lindstrom also have strong numbers for the Florida pen although they have seen limited action.

Florida’s success in the bullpen may be a bit of a surprise but the success of Tampa Bay’s bullpen in the early season action is a complete shocker. In the 2007 season the Devil Rays didn’t just have the worst bullpen in baseball, rather they posted historically bad bullpen numbers. Last season Tampa Bay had a bullpen ERA of 6.16, and relievers took the loss in 34 games. Opponents hit .302 against Tampa Bay relievers and the unit allowed 77 home runs. Needless to say it was a major problem that held back a team that featured a lineup with a lot of potential and was starting to get some solid starting pitching.

Now just the Rays, the Tampa Bay bullpen has had an awakening in April with a 2.55 ERA and opposing hitters are hitting just .210. The numbers may not stay that strong all season, but Tampa Bay is unlikely to fall to the severe opposite end of the spectrum where they were last season. Relievers have a record of just 3-5 this season for Tampa Bay but there have been just two blown saves and a look at the standings shows that the Rays are as competitive this deep into the season as they have ever been.

Troy Percival was a risky but important signing for the Rays that brings some credibility to a bullpen that had shuffled through several different closing options in the past few seasons. So far in 2008 Percival has been as advertised, with perfect numbers, going five for five in save opportunities and allowing just two hits and zero runs in nine innings pitched. The Rays bullpen has been worked considerably less this season with Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine both pitching at least 30 innings as starters already this season. James Shields has been an all-star caliber pitcher and although Matt Garza has struggled so far, he can also become a solid starter by season’s end. A deeper and improved starting rotation has been a big plus for the Rays, especially with ace Scott Kazmir yet to pitch in 2008 but the rest of the bullpen has been equally important.

It may have seemed like a minor deal last season at the trade deadline but acquiring veteran reliever Dan Wheeler from Houston was a big score for Tampa Bay. Wheeler is 0-2 this season but he owns a 1.38 ERA and adds an established veteran presence to the bullpen. Gary Glover was an innings-eater for the Rays last season and his numbers have been outstanding so far in 2008 with a 1.69 ERA and former Colorado reliever Scott Dohmann has been a win vulture, already 2-0 this season after delivering solid numbers for the Rays last year. J.P. Howell has also been a reliable option so far in 2008 despite atrocious numbers last season. Having confidence in the closer and the bullpen can make a huge impact on the starting pitching and morale of the team so this could be the year the Rays break .500. Tampa was always a risky proposition last season even with Shields or Kazmir on the mound because the bullpen was so shaky but Rays are in a much better situation in 2008.

It would be foolish to expect both the Marlins and Rays to stay in contention all season long and to expect them to both lead their respective leagues in bullpen numbers but the early results are promising. Teams that had some of the best bullpen numbers last season were generally playoff teams or at least teams with winning records and it is an area of the team that can be changed dramatically in one year with just a few key improvements. Last year’s top two bullpen ERA teams were Boston and San Diego, both strong winning teams but this season they rank 28th, and 27th respectively. San Diego’s poor start in 2008 can be traced to the regression of the pen as they rank towards the bottom of baseball in relief ERA so far in April and Boston likely could have a much stronger record but instead they have fallen back to the pack in the tight AL East when the opportunity was there to build a cushion. Be sure to keep an eye on which teams are producing strong results in the bullpen, as it typically corresponds with teams that are showing profits as well.