One of the big games on the schedule lived up to its billing as this Pac-12 clash will go down as one of the best games of the season. Stanford led 24-20 entering the fourth quarter but the game was tied 27-27 with just minutes left on the clock. USC scored on an interception return for a touchdown with just over three minutes remaining but Stanford put together the tying scoring drive in the final seconds. The game would be settled in the third overtime as both teams matched scores in the first two stanzas without much trouble. Stanford did the same going first in the third overtime and as the rules necessitate, they went for two and succeeded going up eight and leaving a very empty feeling for USC backers who had +7.5, where the spread was most of the week. USC went 21 yards on its first play and looked sure to find the end zone but Curtis McNeal fumbled to end the game and leave the margin at eight points.

4^th Quarter Covers – Oct. 14-16

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the college games that went down to the wire relative to the spread for week 7 college action and week 6 NFL action. Get the details on the final minutes in those key games in this weekly column.

NCAA

San Jose State (+6.5) 28, Hawaii 27

San Jose State had a 20-7 lead at halftime but Hawaii led 21-20 entering the fourth quarter in an ugly primetime match-up that featured twelve turnovers. Hawaii got past the spread early in the fourth quarter with a 32-yard run but the extra-point was blocked and returned for 2-point for San Jose State, a play that would prove critical. After another San Jose State turnover the Warriors were in position to pad the lead but the field goal attempt was blocked. San Jose State connected for a big play to get into scoring range but inexplicably there was another fumble. Hawaii did its best to run out the clock but ultimately had to punt with just over a minute to go, pinning San Jose State back deep in its own zone but the Spartans put together a great scoring drive to lead by one, missing the 2-point conversion. Hawaii’s final drive came up short and San Jose State scored the upset.

Rutgers (-3) 21, Navy 20

Navy took a 17-14 lead into the fourth quarter as slight underdogs but Rutgers answered with a scoring drive early in the fourth quarter to take the lead for the first time since the first quarter, getting just past the late week spreads. Navy answered with a nice drive but had to settle for field goal, getting within the spread but still a point short on the scoreboard. On its next possession Rutgers was intercepted deep in its own territory to set up Navy to take the lead, but the field goal was blocked. Rutgers then went down the field, looking to milk the clock. Navy was able to get a third down stop and left about 30 seconds on the clock as Rutgers lined up a spread changing field goal. Incredibly that pick was blocked as well, sealing the one-point margin and the underdog cover.

Toledo (-9.5) 28, Bowling Green 21

Toledo had a massive yardage edge but both teams often failed to cash in with points in game that was heavily impacted by strong winds. Bowling Green scored on a 4^th and 25 Hail Mary at the end of the first half to tie the game but Toledo would score first in the second half. Bowling Green tied the game early in the fourth quarter and then forced a 3-and-out, seemingly taking momentum in the game. A quick interception set the Rockets up for its next score to lead by seven. After stopping Bowling Green on downs late in the fourth, the Rockets appeared in position to earn an unlikely cover as they broke a few big plays to go up 28-14 with just over a minute to go. Bowling Green would spoil the party for Toledo backers as the kickoff return was returned for a touchdown.

South Carolina (-3.5) 14, Mississippi State 12

A 7-7 tie went into the fourth quarter after a scoreless third quarter in this SEC clash. Mississippi State put a field goal up to take the lead with less than ten minutes to go. South Carolina answered with a great drive to go nearly 80 yards and take six minutes off the clock, taking the lead at 14-10 with less than four minutes to go, sitting just past the spread. Mississippi State drove into South Carolina territory but an interception ended the threat however the scoring was not yet finished. The Gamecocks were not quite able to just take a knee to burn all the time off the clock and Steve Spurrier and QB Connor Shaw did not make many friends among Gamecocks bettors as Shaw ran out of the end zone after time expired for a spread changing safety rather than risking a punt deep in its own territory.

Oregon (-14.5) 41, Arizona State 27

Arizona State led 24-21 early in the third quarter but Oregon could not be held down any further. The Ducks had back-to-back touchdown drivers in less than two minutes to enter the fourth quarter up by eleven and a field goal early in the fourth to complete a drive pushed the lead to 14, right on or near the spread. Arizona State answered with a field goal shortly thereafter but then the Ducks did the same thing with a chip shot with just over nine minutes to go. The scoring would stop there even though Arizona State threatened on its final drive.

LSU (-17) 38, Tennessee 7

The Tigers were right on the number entering the fourth quarter at 24-7 but it was only a matter of time as LSU would complete two more scoring drives in the fourth quarter while Tennessee never really threatened to score again.

Stanford (-20) 44, Washington State 14

Sharp action was on the underdog in this game and it looked smart early as Stanford led just 10-7 at the half and only 24-7 after a late third quarter scored. The Cardinal continue to be a team that scores deep into the game however as Stanford scored twice more, pushing the lead to 38-7 with just over four minutes to go. Washington State managed to find the end zone with just seconds on the clock to make the score look more respectable but fittingly Stanford returned the ensuing kickoff 96-yards for a touchdown. 

Iowa (-6) 41, Northwestern 31

This was a tie game entering the fourth quarter at 17-17 but a lot of points would be scored late in the game. Iowa put together two strong touchdown drives surrounding Northwestern settling for a field goal to take charge of the game, leading 31-20 and past the spread. Northwestern fumbled on its next possession to set up an Iowa field goal and while the Wildcats cut the lead back to ten points on its next possession the onside kick failed and Iowa was able to rush for a touchdown a few plays later, forcing Northwestern to use its timeouts in the process. Northwestern would score again but the onside kick again failed to leave the margin at ten points.

Fresno State (+3) 31, Utah State 21

Utah State had the early lead in this WAC contest that will be meaningful in the standings. The Aggies led 21-17 entering the fourth quarter, just past the narrow road favorite spread. Utah State would miss a short field goal early in the fourth quarter to which Fresno State answered with a long scoring drive to take the lead. The Aggies fumbled on its next possession to set up Fresno State on a short field which they took advantage of. Utah State would miss another field goal late in the game, the third missed kick of the game. After three touchdowns in its first four possessions, Utah State would not score again as Fresno State rallied.

Louisiana (-9) 30, North Texas 10

The Ragin’ Cajuns led just 13-10 at the half and entering the fourth quarter after a quiet third. Shortly into the fourth quarter Louisiana hit a long pass play to go up 20-10 and past the spread for the first time and took advantage of North Texas miscues to pad the lead late.

NFL

Atlanta (3.5) 31, Carolina 17

The Panthers actually led 17-14 entering the fourth quarter in a game that was much closer than the final score suggests. Capitalizing on a marginal punt, the Falcons tied the game with a field goal early in the fourth quarter and the defense stepped up with another stand to force Carolina to punt, surrendering good field position again. Atlanta put together a ten-play drive to find the end zone and then on Carolina’s next possession an interception the Falcons got the ball in Carolina territory again, eventually adding another touchdown to seal the game.

Cincinnati (-4.5) 27, Indianapolis 17

A lot of late action brought this line down considerably, opening at -7. Cincinnati seemed in control most of the way, taking a 20-7 lead into the fourth quarter but the Colts had a rally left, cutting the lead to 20-17 just a few minutes into the fourth quarter. The Bengals were very conservative on offense playing with the lead and had to punt back to the Colts, leading by just three with plenty of time on the clock. Indianapolis could not take advantage of good field position as the tying field goal attempt was blocked. Cincinnati was in position to push the lead past the spread late in the game but also missed a field goal to set up the Colts for another chance. Indianapolis would fumble after a first down completion and the Bengals returned it for a touchdown to seal the win and the cover with just over two minutes to go. Indianapolis got the ball back but an interception was the result, ending the chance for more late drama relative to the spread.

New York (-3) 27, Buffalo 24

The Giants seemed to be in control in the second half of this game but Buffalo kept finding ways to answer. The Bills tied the game in the fourth quarter at 24-24 and seemed to have momentum after forcing the Giants to punt on the next possession. After the Bills moved into field goal range, Buffalo would turn the ball over with an interception, giving the Giants a great opportunity to win the game. The Giants put together a methodical drive to get into a first and goal situation with less than two minutes to go but ultimately had to settle for the field goal, leaving the game at a push.

Baltimore (-7) 29, Houston 14

Houston hung close with the Ravens most of the way, actually leading 14-13 late in the third quarter before a Baltimore field goal. Early in the fourth quarter the Ravens added another field goal to lead 19-14 and that score looked like it might hold up as there were punts on the next three possessions. The Ravens finally were able to cash with a touchdown, completing a 66-yard scoring drive with just over four minutes to go to get past the spread. In desperation mode the Texans turned the ball over on downs deep in their own territory, setting up the Ravens for another field goal, the fifth of the day to create the rare score of 29.

Oakland (-6.5) 24, Cleveland 17

After a fake field goal late in the third quarter, the Raiders appeared to be in complete control, leading 24-7 entering the fourth quarter. Cleveland added a field goal to cut into the margin but the Raiders were still well past the spread that was right at -7 most of the week before dropping late. Oakland put together a twelve play drive to burn nearly eight minutes off the clock but the chagrin of spread backers the Raiders opted to go for it on fourth and one at the Cleveland five-yard line, rather than pushing the margin to 17 points with an easy field goal. Predictably the Browns went down the field, including surviving an interception that was reversed and scored to cut the lead to just seven points with just over a minute to go. The Browns actually recovered an onside kick and moved into Oakland territory but could not force the tie.

4^th Quarter Covers – Oct. 8

10/10/2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the college games that went down to the wire relative to the spread for Saturday, October 8. Get the details on the final minutes in those key games in this weekly column.

Oregon (-24) 43, California 15

The Ducks actually trailed 15-14 at the half but steamrolled the Cal defense in the second half with three third quarter touchdowns. Oregon was still short of the spread entering the fourth quarter with a 36-15 lead but added another score early in the final frame. On five separate drives in the second half the Bears reached Oregon territory, including getting stopped after being 1^st and goal at the 2-yard line in the fourth quarter in what would have been a spread changing score as the yardage totals in this game were much closer than the score suggests.

Alabama (-30) 34, Vanderbilt 0

The Crimson Tide was dominant on defense but had a bit of a trouble pulling away from Vanderbilt last week. Alabama was very efficient on offense but lacked big plays as Vanderbilt played respectably despite the shutout loss. Alabama led just 14-0 at the half and was short of the spread at 27-0 entering the fourth quarter. Alabama added another touchdown with the starters in the game in the fourth quarter to get past the spread. Vanderbilt missed two field goals in the first half but did not come close to a scoring opportunity in the second half.

Clemson (-21.5) 36, Boston College 14

Clemson settled for five field goals against Boston College and appeared likely to fall short of the inflated spread most of the game. Clemson led 29-14 entering the fourth quarter but managed to find the end zone again with a long run. Boston College moved inside the Clemson 30 on its next possession but failed to come away with points and the Tigers held on for a narrow cover.

Penn State (-4) 13, Iowa 3

This Big Ten grind was without a touchdown through three quarters as Penn State led 6-3 entering the fourth. Iowa was near mid-field when a fumble gave Penn State the ball back and the Lions took eleven plays to go 49 yards but eventually found the end zone to get past the spread and then got interceptions on the next two possessions for Iowa to hang on.

Miami, OH (+2.5) 35, Army 28

Army appeared to be in control of this game with a 28-14 late in the third quarter but Miami completed a scoring drive to cut the margin to seven points entering the fourth. After a fumble from Army, Miami punched in another score early in the fourth to tie the game and then force Army to punt. Pinned at their own two-yard line Miami went 98 yards in nine plays to take the lead for the first time since the first quarter halfway through the fourth and then held on defense as Army was deep in Miami territory looking to tie the game late.

Georgia Tech (-16) 21 Maryland 16

The Yellow Jackets failed to cash in on few scoring opportunities early in the game and it nearly cost them as Maryland staged a late rally. Georgia Tech was just past the spread with a 21-3 lead entering the fourth quarter but early in the fourth Georgia Tech oddly went for it on fourth down rather than kicking a field goal. That effort failed and Maryland broke a 77-yard run to get some momentum. After a poor punt Maryland got the ball in good field position and scored again to cut the lead to five after a missed two-point conversion. Maryland was able to get the ball back with a chance to win but came up short, though earning the cash for underdog backers fading one of the most popularly bet favorites on the board.

Virginia Tech (-7.5) 38, Miami, FL 35

Virginia Tech took a ten point lead into the fourth quarter in what seemingly was a defensive battle before offense took over in the fourth quarter. In the span of ten seconds early in the fourth quarter the teams exchanged touchdowns but with the margin still at ten Miami scored with just over eight minutes to go to cut the lead to just three points. Virginia Tech went three and out on its next possession and Miami eventually took the lead with less than three minutes to go following a 30-yard run. Virginia Tech put together the winning scoring drive with less than a minute to go and then held on as Miami was just on the edge of field goal range before failing to convert.

Michigan (-7.5) 42, Northwestern 24

Northwestern dominated the first half, taking a 24-14 lead into halftime as underdogs at home against Michigan. Michigan took over as the running game seemed to wear on the Northwestern defense with two long scoring drives in the third quarter in between a Northwestern punt to lead 28-24 entering the fourth quarter. The Wildcats then had an interception on what was looking like a successful drive, setting Michigan up for another score to lead by nine and get past the spread for the first time in the game. Northwestern then fumbled on its next possession in Michigan territory and eventually Michigan added another touchdown to lead by 18. The game ended with Northwestern on the Michigan one yard line, the third drive in Michigan territory in the fourth quarter but no points resulted.

Baylor (-16) 49, Iowa State 26

Iowa State scored late in the third quarter to cut the margin to just 15 points, though the Cyclones missed the extra-point. That ended a run of 28 consecutive points for Baylor as Iowa State did have an early lead. Baylor scored early in the fourth as the offense could not be stopped and the teams would exchange scores on the next two possessions. Iowa State was immediately picked off in its final drive with a backdoor cover in play.

Texas A&M (-9) 45, Texas Tech 40

A lot of points were expected in this Big XII rivalry that may be ending soon and both teams delivered as Texas A&M led 31-20 at the half but that lead was cut to 38-30 entering the fourth quarter. The line moved substantially throughout the week so opportunistic players that had that middle were feeling good about that margin. Texas A&M scored first in the fourth quarter to pull ahead 45-30 but Texas Tech quickly answered with a field goal. Both offenses failed to on the next possessions but Texas Tech got the ball back and went 91-yards to score with less than a minute to go to spoil the spread. Tech had massive yardage edges in the game so likely was the deserving side winner despite the late fashion in which the cover was earned.

4^th Quarter Covers – Oct. 1

10/02/2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the college games that went down to the wire relative to the spread for Saturday, October 1. Get the details on the final minutes in those key games in this weekly column.

Georgia Tech (-10) 45, NC State 35

Georgia Tech led just 21-14 entering the fourth quarter against NC State but there was a lot of scoring left to be done. After scoring early in the fourth the Yellow Jackets got an interception return touchdown just seconds later. On their next possession Georgia Tech took a commanding 42-14 lead with just ten minutes left in the game. NC State would put up a fight in the final minutes as they put together two touchdown drives to bring the score to 45-28 with just over 30 seconds to go, still short of a spread that fluctuated between -9.5 and -12 and closed at -10. Incredibly Georgia Tech fumbled on a first down rushing play and the recovery was returned for a touchdown, closing the margin to just ten points, right on the number for most. The Yellow Jackets would take a knee on their next possession.

Western Michigan (+3) 38, Connecticut 31

The Broncos played tough with a second straight major conference team on Saturday. They were comfortably within the spread the whole game against Illinois but wagers were in the balance this week as Western Michigan and Connecticut entered the fourth quarter tied 17-17. Connecticut struck first in the final quarter but Western Michigan got the next two scores to go up seven with efficient drives and forcing a punt on defense. Connecticut would tie the game with just over two minutes to go after a ten-play 80 yard drive. It took Western Michigan just two plays to get the lead back, connecting on a long pass play to go up seven again leaving about a minute and a half for the Huskies to answer. Connecticut went right down the field but catastrophe struck with a fumble on the Western Michigan 13 yard line with about 45 seconds left to give the Broncos a big win in this shootout that featured 941 yards.

Eastern Michigan (-8) 31, Akron 23

This ugly match-up in MAC saw Eastern Michigan grab the early lead but struggle to pull away from Akron. The Eagles are not often favored but they faced a spread that bounced around between -8 and -9.5, closing at -8. Entering the fourth quarter the margin was locked at eight points but Eastern Michigan led a successful scoring drive to lead 31-16. Neither team budged on the next possessions but Akron put together a scoring drive to get the margin back to eight with just over three minutes to go. Eastern Michigan was forced to punt again and Akron moved to near the 30 yard line before ultimately failing to convert.

Texas Tech (-6.5) 45, Kansas 34

Kansas got off to a 20-0 lead in this game as underdogs but led just 27-24 at the half as Texas Tech was able to put together quick scores. Texas Tech kept scoring in the third quarter while Kansas went punt, interception, missed field goal, and turnover on downs at the goal line in its next four possessions. Texas Tech did not score in the fourth quarter but the Jayhawks did not score in the second half until just over three minutes to go as what looked like a sure underdog cover early, turned into a loss as Texas Tech was able to get a nice road win.

Boise State (-27.5) 30, Nevada 10

Most won’t be overly impressed glancing at the score in this game for the highly rated Broncos but it was 30-0 entering the fourth quarter and Nevada had just 182 yards of offense with 167 of those yards coming on the last three possessions after Boise State was leading 30-0. Nevada did not have a drive of more than 18 yards until they connected on a field goal early in the fourth quarter, three points that switched the spread winner. Boise State got deep into Nevada territory on its next possession but passed on a longer field goal attempt and Nevada would hit a big play on its final possession, getting a touchdown with only 46 seconds left in the game to create the final score in a game where neither offense was sharp.

Washington State (+3) 31, Colorado 27

The Buffaloes led 20-17 entering the fourth quarter and pushed the lead to 27-17 with just over five minutes to go in the game as the defense really played well most of the game. It took Washington State just seven plays to find the end zone to get back within three points and Colorado was forced to punt after just four plays on its next possession with just over two minutes to go. Washington State took just five plays to score again to grab the lead and Colorado fumbled on its next possession on the edge of field goal range with about a minute on the clock.

Stanford (-23) 45, UCLA 19

Stanford was in control the entire game against UCLA but the game and yardage was a bit closer than the final margin suggests. Early in the fourth quarter UCLA cut the lead to 31-19 but Stanford answered with a touchdown drive just three minutes later to lead by 19, just short of the spread. UCLA got into Stanford territory on its next possession but gave the ball back on downs and with the starters still in the game including Andrew Luck, the Cardinal found the end zone on a pass play with less than two minutes to go to get by the spread for the first time in the game.

Arkansas (+2.5) 42, Texas A&M 38

Texas A&M dominated the first half for the second straight week in a big game but they left the door open for another dramatic comeback. The Aggies led 35-17 at the half but Arkansas chipped away with ten points in the third quarter. Arkansas tied the game at 35-35 with a fumble recovery in the end zone and a 2-point conversion early in the fourth quarter. Texas A&M got the lead back with a field goal with just over four minutes to go for its only score of the second half as the Arkansas defense stepped up. Arkansas went 80 yards in less than three minutes to go up by four with just over a minute go to lead for the first time in the game and the defense held up to end the game.

USC (-12.5) 48, Arizona 41

USC got off to the early lead in this Pac-12 shootout but Arizona chipped away, rallying to get within seven points entering the fourth quarter. Touchdowns were exchanged early in the fourth and then USC had another quick score to lead 48-34 with less than ten minutes to go. The USC defense finally held to force a punt but then Arizona got a stop on downs near midfield to get the ball back with less than two minutes to go. It took less than a minute for the Wildcats to score, getting within the spread with a minute to go but the onside kick failed and USC was able to kneel to kill the clock.

Kansas State (+3.5) 36, Baylor 35

The Wildcats have had no shortage of late game drama this season as they delivered another wild finish. Trailing 35-26 entering the fourth quarter, Kansas State scored with about six minutes to go to get within two points after Baylor missed a field goal on its previous possession. Baylor threw an interception quickly to give Kansas State the ball back and the Wildcats were able to convert for a field goal to sneak out a narrow win after the defense stopped Baylor’s last chance.

LSU (-29.5) 35, Kentucky 7

LSU Struggled on offense with a rough game from Jarrett Lee but the defense dominated, allowing for a 28-0 lead entering the fourth quarter. The Tigers got past the massive spread early in the fourth quarter but with just over four minutes to go Kentucky had its only successful drive of the game, going 70 yards for a touchdown and a backdoor cover.

Tulsa (-23) 41, North Texas 24

Tulsa dominated North Texas through three quarters, leading 41-3 entering the final quarter. North Texas got its first touchdown of the game early in the fourth and then with many Tulsa reserves in the game The Mean Green scored again with just over three minutes on the clock. Tulsa was still covering the large spread at that point but on its next possession in its own territory the Golden Hurricane oddly went for it on fourth down rather than punting. Subsequently North Texas was left favorable field position and with eight seconds on the clock the winning tickets flipped as North Texas scored its third touchdown of the fourth quarter.

NFL 4^th Quarter Covers – Sep. 25

09/26/2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. There were many wild fourth quarters last week in the NFL as nine teams that led entering the fourth quarter ended up losing. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week. Get the details on the final minutes in those key games in this weekly column.

San Francisco (+1) 13, Cincinnati 8

Ugly offense prevailed most of the way as the 49ers were scoreless until late in the third quarter, tying the game at 3-3 entering the fourth. Cincinnati had it best scoring chance early in the fourth after a fumble recovery deep in San Francisco territory but had to settle for a chip shot field goal. San Francisco answered with the only touchdown drive of the day to take the lead. The 49ers took a safety late rather than punting deep in their own territory, creating the first even 13-8 NFL final.

New Orleans (-4) 40, Houston 33

The Texans appeared on the verge of 4-0 pushing a 19-17 lead to 26-17 right as the fourth quarter started. The Houston defense even forced a punt on the next possession for the Saints but then went 3 and out on the next possession, oddly passing instead of burning clock. The Saints started in good field position after a marginal punt and scored five players later to get within two. Again with the lead Houston stuck to the passing game and a Matt Schaub was picked on the next series, giving the Saints another short field. The New Orleans score put the margin right on the spread but Saints went for two and succeeded to go up six. The Texans found new life on the next drive, answering to take the lead with just over four minutes to go but New Orleans got a few big plays to take the lead back with another 8-point touchdown drive and then sent Houston backwards on its final drive.

Cleveland (+2) 17, Miami 16

Action and Peyton Hillis being inactive flipped the spread on this game and created a sweet middle opportunity as Miami was +3 early in the week. The Dolphins were in control early and dominated the yardage but could not pull away with a Reggie Bush fumble and a missed field goal being culprits. Miami took a 13-10 lead into the fourth quarter and extended the margin with another 3-pointer with just over three minutes to go. The tough luck Fins were burned again though as the Browns put together its best drive of the day, going 80 yards in 13 plays including a big fourth down conversion. On the ensuing kickoff a horse caller tackle put Miami past midfield with some time on the clock but the passing game failed, ultimately ending in an interception.

Detroit (-3) 26, Minnesota 23

The Vikings incredibly got off to another fast start, posting a 20-0 margin in the first half that could have been even worse, holding the high scoring Lions to just 40 yards on five punts. Another second half collapse was in order however as the roles reversed, Minnesota punted three consecutive times and then oddly the Vikings went for it on fourth and short on the Detroit 17, instead of extending the lead to 23-17 with another field goal. The play ran to back-up RB Toby Gerhart was stuffed and the Lions tied the game on the next possession. Detroit got a stop and another field goal drive but the Vikings finally showed a little fourth quarter lift, getting a 49-yard field goal with just over a minute to go. Minnesota forced a punt and got the ball in Detroit territory seemingly with time for a play or two to set up a field goal attempt but an unnecessary roughness penalty pushed the ball back. The Vikings got a big play on a final heave but did not get out of bounds to set up a final kick and the Lions wasted no time setting up the winner in OT. Most Vikings backers still took the cash but late players ended with an unsettling push.

Carolina (-3.5) 16, Jacksonville 10

Soggy conditions made for a tough game for both rookie QBs but Jacksonville took a 10-8 lead into the fourth quarter after controlling the game for the most part with a solid rushing attack and excellent defense. The Jaguars controlled field position throughout the second half and picked up several first downs but could not quite get into field position. The game turned on an ugly Matt Turk punt that went just 14 yards to set up the Panthers in great field position with just over six minutes to go. Turk had mishandled a snap earlier in the game to set up another short field for the Panthers. Carolina connected and found the end zone a few plays later, getting a questionable 2-point conversion to stand as well. Jacksonville got the ball twice more and moved into Carolina territory on its final possession but time ran out.

Green Bay (-5) 27, Chicago 17

The Packers took a 20-10 lead into the fourth quarter and extended that margin to 27-10 early in the final frame. The Bears would answer with a touchdown just a minute later to get the margin back to ten points before a wild finish. An Aaron Rodgers interception gave the Bears the ball back but on that drive and the subsequent drive the Bears could not get into field goal range. Forcing the Packers to punt the Bears made one of the most incredible punt returns ever seen, as Devin Hester and the return team played decoy on one side of the field and appeared lining up to catch the ball but in reality the punt had gone to the other side of the field and Johnny Knox sprinted down the sideline for a touchdown. The play was called back for a holding penalty that upon review was non-existent, canceling a play that would have flipped the spread winners on both the side and total.

4^th Quarter Covers – Sep. 15-19

09/20/2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week including a couple of wild NFL finishes. Each week there are teams that cover that didn’t deserve to and teams that likely should have taken the cash. Get the details on the final minutes in those key games in this weekly column.

NCAA

LSU (-3.5) 19, Mississippi State 6

LSU was in control all game against Mississippi State but three field goals was all the Tigers could post through three quarters, entering the fourth just short of the spread. LSU had the ball entering the fourth quarter and finished of the drive with the only touchdown of the game on a 19-yard pass play with less than twelve minutes to go. LSU added a field goal late and while Mississippi State drove deep into LSU territory on its final possession, a touchdown would not have been enough for a backdoor cover.

Boise State (-20.5) 40, Toledo 15

The Broncos took a little time to get going at Toledo Friday night as it was just an eleven point lead at the half. Boise State led by just 18 points entering the fourth quarter, sitting just short of the closing numbers. Boise State was stopped on several second half possessions but finally found the end zone again with less than six minutes to go, surpassing the spread for the first time. Toledo quickly answered however to create a dramatic finish relative to the spread but Boise State bailed out Broncos backers with another touchdown with just 1:30 left on the clock for a narrow cover.

Iowa (-3) 31, Pittsburgh 27

Pittsburgh appeared to be well on its way for a notable road win, leading Iowa 24-10 entering the fourth quarter and tacking on a field goal early in the final frame. Iowa’s offense finally started to put things together with an efficient scoring drive to cut the deficit to just ten points. Pittsburgh moved the ball well on its next possession but opted to go for it on 4^th and 3 at the Iowa 36 about halfway through the final quarter. The attempt failed and Iowa got the ball back and some momentum behind its home crowd. Iowa quickly went down the field to add another touchdown in less than two minutes and then forced a Pittsburgh 3 and out aided by a big second down sack. Iowa’s offense did it again with a quick drive down the field, stunningly taking the lead with less than three minutes to go and getting just past the spread, something that looked impossible much of the game. Pittsburgh had a chance to answer and got two first downs but an interception ended the threat and Iowa was able to run out the clock.

Minnesota (-4) 29, Miami, OH 23

The Gophers have had a very emotional start to the season but there certainly was fear of a 0-3 start for much of this game. Miami appeared on the verge of the lead late in the third quarter but they missed an extra-point, leaving a 16-16 tie entering the fourth quarter but Minnesota completed its drive with a touchdown early in the final quarter. The Gophers then got the big break it needed with a blocked punt on Miami’s next possession, leading directly to a touchdown. Minnesota then missed an extra-point, leaving a 13-point margin. Miami answered on the next possession to cut the lead back to six and leaving a nervous finish for Minnesota fans. Minnesota burned some clock but ultimately had to go for it on fourth down in Miami territory but out of field goal range. The Gophers could not convert and Miami would take the ball inside the Minnesota 20-yard line, needing a touchdown and the extra-point for the upset but Minnesota got the stop it needed to seal Coach Kill’s first win and a narrow cover.

Nebraska (-18) 51, Washington 38

The Cornhuskers led by just three at halftime but then dominated the third quarter, taking a 20-point lead into the final frame. Nebraska pushed the lead to 44-17 early in the fourth quarter but the Huskies would not concede and Nebraska ended up with some ugly defensive numbers. Washington posted back-to-back touchdown drives in the span of less than three minutes surrounding a Nebraska punt, getting back within the spread with just over seven minutes to go in the game. Nebraska answered to put any thoughts of an upset to rest, rushing down a short field helped by a penalty on the kickoff and pushing the margin to 20 points. Washington hit a 52-yard pass on its next possession however to put the underdog cover back in play and Nebraska simply burned clock, moving deep into Washington territory but failing to convert a fourth down on the Washington 21. Washington last scoring bid was intercepted but the Huskies did enough damage in the final quarter to flip the spread result.

Nevada (-7) 17, San Jose State 14

Nevada’s offense is not putting up the numbers that it has in past seasons and the Wolf Pack struggled to pull away from San Jose State. Nevada led just 14-7 at halftime and a third quarter field goal pushed the lead to 17-7. In its next two possessions San Jose State fumbled in Nevada territory and then missed a field goal attempt in the fourth quarter. The defense held up and the Spartans cashed in for a touchdown on its next possession halfway through the final quarter. San Jose State held on defense again and was in position to tie or win before being intercepted. Nevada held on to the win but San Jose State got a deserved cover with a sound defensive effort.

San Diego State (-4.5) 42, Washington State 24

Washington State appeared on the verge of a 3-0 start, leading 24-14 in the second half. San Diego State put together a touchdown drive to cut the lead to just three points which was the margin entering the fourth quarter. Washington State’s offense fell apart from there, going punt, punt, fumble, interception, interception, punt to close out the game. Mainly running the ball San Diego State scored three fourth quarter touchdowns including breaking a 59-yard rush to get over the spread for the first time in a game that ended up with a somewhat misleading final score.

Texas A&M (-36) 37, Idaho 7

The Aggies dominated against Idaho, leading 27-0 at the half and out-gaining the Vandals by over 300 yards for the game. Texas A&M did have to settle for three field goals in the game but was still up 37-0 entering the fourth quarter, just past a massive spread. Idaho was a threat to score early in the fourth quarter with reserves in for the Aggies but was stopped and Texas A&M failed to add more points with a missed field goal attempt on its next possession. Idaho then got the ultimate backdoor cover, putting together a scoring drive with a touchdown with just over two minutes to go in the game to ruin the shutout.

Ball State (-4.5) 28, Buffalo 25

Ball State appeared to be in control with a 21-7 halftime lead but Buffalo came out energized in the second half and played well on defense. Buffalo scored in the third quarter to cut the margin to six points and then hit a big play to get the score to 21-19, missing the on the tying conversion attempt as they tried to make amends for an earlier missed extra-point. Buffalo forced a 3-and-out, the fourth consecutive Ball State punt as momentum had shifted and the Bulls went down the field for 86 yards on 14 plays to take the lead. The conversion again missed, as Buffalo had now gone three consecutive touchdowns with just six points, leaving a fatal three points off the board. Ball State got it together on offense for a great final drive, getting the touchdown with less than 30 seconds to go to win, although Buffalo held on to the cover.

Illinois (-2.5) 17, Arizona State 14

Arizona State and Illinois combined for 17 points in the first quarter but then went scoreless in the second and third with a combined six turnovers ending several threats. Very early in the fourth quarter Arizona State took its first lead completing a touchdown drive. Illinois was stuffed and had to put on its next possession but then forced a key fumble to get the ball back with good field position. Illinois was able to capitalize with a four-play scoring drive and then was able to hold Arizona State as the Sun Devils got the ball back two more times, sneaking out a narrow win and cover.

NFL

Green Bay (-11) 30, Carolina 23

The Super Bowl champions were upstaged by rookie Cam Newton who led the Panthers to a 13-0 lead early. Early in the third quarter the Packers took the lead for the first time at 14-13 and then added three consecutive field goals to lead 23-13 entering the fourth quarter, failing to really capitalize on a big edge in turnovers. Carolina cut the lead back to seven points early in the fourth quarter and then got the ball back, taking it deep into Green Bay territory. Going for the tie the Panthers were stopped on downs and the Packers broke a big play to get past the spread for the first time in the game, leading 30-16 with just over two minutes to go. Carolina did not give up however adding a touchdown against a relaxed defense in the final minute to get the cover back.

Tampa Bay (+1) 24, Minnesota 20

For the second straight week the Vikings got off to a great start but fell victim to a second half rally. After leading 17-0 at halftime the Vikings led by just seven entering the fourth quarter. Minnesota added a field goal with less than ten minutes to go, getting the lead back to ten but it was not safe. The Buccaneers put together an eight-play 80 yard drive in just over three minutes to get within three points and match the early spread. Minnesota’s offense stalled and efficiently the Buccaneers went down the field again and scored with about 30 seconds left in the game to take the lead. Minnesota got to midfield in the final seconds but could not get the desperation play.

Dallas (-3) 27, San Francisco 24 OT

The 49ers appeared on their way to a 2-0 start with a 24-14 lead early in the fourth quarter against the Cowboys. After the fact Coach Harbaugh faced a bit of criticism as the fourth quarter field goal could have been taken off the board with fresh set of downs in Dallas territory due to a penalty but he kept three points and the ten-point lead with about eleven minutes to go. Tony Romo had left the game with a rib injury but he returned and led Dallas on a great scoring drive to cut into the lead and then Dallas forced a San Francisco punt. With about four minutes to go the Cowboys moved into field goal range and rookie Dan Bailey hit a 48-yarder as time expired to tie the game. The 49ers got the ball first in OT but the defense held. On the first play after the punt Dallas hit a 77-yard pass play with Romo hitting rookie Jesse Holley. Holley was caught in what looked like a sure touchdown, costing a lot of backers on Dallas as the Cowboys lined up for the chip shot field goal and left the game at a push.

Atlanta (+2.5) 35, Philadelphia 31

The Falcons led 21-10 early in the third quarter but Philadelphia stole all the momentum, scoring on three consecutive drives to finish the third quarter with a 31-21 lead. Michael Vick would get injured which played a role but Atlanta took over the fourth quarter with back-to-back 80 yard scoring drives to lead by four. Philadelphia needed a touchdown and went down the field in quick fashion behind back-up QB Mike Kafka. On a critical fourth down play in Atlanta territory Jeremy Maclin dropped a good pass to seal the game for the Falcons and the underdog cover that was still in jeopardy.

4^th Quarter Covers – Sep. 8-11

09/12/2011

NCAA

Arizona State (-10) 37, Missouri 30

Arizona State took a 30-16 lead early in the fourth quarter, appearing poised to pull away for a comfortable win against Missouri Friday night. The Tigers answered however and then got a big stop to set up the tying score with less than three minutes to go in the game. Missouri was able to get the ball back and moved into field goal position but the 48-yard try missed. Arizona State scored in overtime but Missouri’s offense could not match the score, though the Tigers took the spread victory.

Kentucky (-10) 27, Central Michigan 13

For the second straight week Kentucky went late into the game before getting much of anything going on offense. Central Michigan led 13-6 at halftime but the Wildcats got a few big plays late in the third quarter to take the lead for the first time. With just seconds left in the third quarter Josh Clemons broke an 87-yard run to put Kentucky up 20-13, still short of the double-digit spread. Central Michigan was stopped after a long drive and then Kentucky burned the clock with a 13-play 85-yard drive to bring the margin to 14. Central Michigan had backdoor cover potential with the subsequent drive reaching the red zone but an interception ended the effort. 

South Carolina (-3) 45, Georgia 42

This SEC opener featured a wild finish as South Carolina took an 8-point lead into the final quarter. Early in the final frame Georgia connected for a touchdown pass and then went for 2, getting the conversion to tie the game. After a South Carolina field goal, Georgia took the lead 35-31 with a 15-yard run with just over six minutes to go in the game. South Carolina answered quickly, going nearly 80 yards in three minutes to go up by three. Georgia then fumbled on the next possession, returned for a touchdown with just over three minutes to go, leaving South Carolina up by ten. Georgia would force a push with a quick scoring drive but they would not have the chance to get the ball again as the Gamecocks ran out the clock for the win.

Virginia (-7.5) 34, Indiana 31

Virginia appeared in complete control against Indiana, leading 23-3 in the third quarter. Indiana scored to cut the lead to 23-10 and then got on a roll in the fourth quarter. Indiana scored early in the fourth to move to within six-points and then forced a fumble on Virginia’s next possession, returning the fumble 54 yards for a touchdown and the first lead for the Hoosiers. Indiana then quickly got the ball back with an interception and went right down the field to take a 31-23 lead with just over six minutes to go. Virginia put together a strong response with a long scoring drive and the 2-point conversion to tie the game with just over a minute to go. Rather than playing for overtime, Indiana was aggressive and a fumble after a sack gave Virginia the ball in field position to kick the winning field goal in the final seconds, although it was not enough to cover the spread.

Texas (-7.5) 17, BYU 16

The Longhorns had a very slow start to the game and eventually benched QB Garrett Gilbert and went with the McCoy and Ash tandem the rest of the way. Four players completed passes for Texas in the game as BYU built a 13-0 lead in the second quarter. Texas chipped away but trailed 16-10 entering the fourth quarter. Texas went deep into BYU territory early in the final frame but came away with zero points but the defense did not allow a first down in the fourth quarter. Texas scored on its next possession to lead 17-16 and the ball twice more, and needed one touchdown to cover the spread despite the early deficit. The game ended with Texas deep in BYU territory and the Cougars out of timeouts. One more broken tackle on the final first down rush would have earned a cover for Texas.

Arkansas (-37.5) 52, New Mexico 3

The Razorbacks out-gained the Lobos by a 2:1 margin but they were short of the spread entering the fourth quarter. Even with reserves in the game Arkansas was able to pad the score with two fourth quarter touchdowns to add to the blowout margin and cash heavy favorite tickets.

Vanderbilt (-1.5) 24, Connecticut 21

The Huskies and Commodores were locked in a tight game as Connecticut took a 14-3 halftime lead to 14-13 after a blocked punt recovery in the third quarter. Connecticut got more good fortune in the fourth quarter with a 64-yard fumble return touchdown and with a successful 2-point conversion the Huskies led 21-14 halfway through the final frame as underdogs. The turnover favor was returned however as Vanderbilt got a 50-yard interception return touchdown to tie the game with less than seven minutes to go. Vanderbilt held on defense and got the ball back and less than three minutes to go the Commodores got a field goal to win and cover.

USC (-7.5) 23, Utah 14

USC and Utah were locked in a tight defensive battle all night with USC leading 17-14 entering the fourth quarter. A lot of late action on Utah forced what was once a double-digit spread to just over a touchdown and books seemed to get their wish after eight fourth quarter punts, Utah’s potential game-tying field goal attempt was blocked and returned for a touchdown in the final seconds. Several players ran on the field to join Torin Harris in his run to the end zone and it was assumed that the touchdown would not count due to the unsportsmanlike penalty, leaving the final at 17-14. Underdog tickets were paid but then two hours later the Pac-12 ruled that the score did count leaving the final at 23-14 and USC tickets had to be paid as well for a brutal double-burn at several books.

Michigan 35 (+3) Notre Dame 31

Notre Dame appeared to be in complete control in the first night game at the Big House but the turnover issues kept popping up. The Irish still led 24-7 entering the fourth quarter with massive yardage edges as well. Michigan started to get some things going on offense with a four-play drive to score early in the fourth quarter. A quick defensive stop set up another Michigan score to trim the lead to 24-21 before the teams traded turnovers. Notre Dame had the ball up three with less than four minutes to go but could not convert a first down and had to punt the ball back. In just over a minute Michigan went 58 yards to take the lead, leaving just over a minute on the clock. A big pass interference penalty and a couple of quick plays led Notre Dame to what appeared to be a miraculous score taking a 31-28 lead and at least pushing on the closing line for many backers. Michigan was given 30 seconds to work with however and incredibly Denard Robinson hit Jeremy Gallon on one sideline and he traversed 64 yards while getting out of bounds on the other sideline, leaving a few seconds left on the clock for a final play. Robinson threw up a ball that WR Roy Roundtree went and got and Michigan completed a historic comeback in an incredible fourth quarter.

NFL

Green Bay (-5) 42, New Orleans 34

It seemed as if the defending Super Bowl champion Packers were in control the entire game but New Orleans wouldn’t go away. Late in the third quarter the Saints were stopped deep in Packers territory going for it on fourth down to leave the deficit at eight entering the fourth quarter.  The Packers then pushed the lead to 42-27 with less than twelve minutes to go. The Saints were forced to punt on its next possession but then put together a quick scoring drive once they got the ball back to get the margin back to eight with just over two minutes to go. As was often the case last season despite the great year, the Packers offense could not put a team away late and the defense had to go back on the field as the Saints made the stop and used timeouts to get the ball back with just over a minute to go. New Orleans moved right down the field with a few big plays and ultimately was stopped at the goal line on rushing play up the middle. The Saints would have needed a 2-point conversion to tie the game but the scored would have flipped the spread winner in an exciting opening game.

Jacksonville (+1) 16, Tennessee 14

The cover on this game was more about when you played it as Jacksonville was favored by 3 early in the week. The release of QB David Garrard brought the line down to 2 at most spots and action over the weekend eventually flipped the line as Tennessee closed as a late favorite. You could have had a win, a push, or a loss on either side depending on your timing and there were likely some fortunate folks that caught the middle, taking Tennessee early in the week at +3 and then getting the Jags at -1 or +1 on Sunday. Jacksonville was in control most of the game but the conservative offense could not pull away, leading 13-7 entering the fourth quarter as the Titans hit an 80-yard pass play late in the third to finally have a positive drive. Jacksonville added a field goal early in the fourth and after swapping punts the Titans got in the end zone again to bring the margin to 16-14 with just over three minutes to go. The Titans were able to get the ball back and got to mid-field but QB Matt Hasselbeck was intercepted taking a shot down field to seal the game.

Arizona (-7) 28, Carolina 21

The Panthers surprised a lot of people with an aggressive offensive game plan with rookie QB Cam Newton. Newton had a few mistakes but ultimately played well and impressively passed for 422 yards in a dynamic debut. Kevin Kolb’s debut for Arizona started slowly but he had an efficient game rallying Arizona back from an early deficit. Carolina led 14-7 at the half and then 21-14 entering the fourth quarter. Kolb hit a 70-yard pass play for a tying touchdown early in the fourth and then on Carolina’s next possession a punt turned into a touchdown with rookie Patrick Peterson delivering an 89-yard return for the 7-point lead that would be the final margin. The Panthers had a chance to tie late in the game with a penalty-aided drive deep into Arizona territory but the Panthers came up a yard shy. The line on this game had been steady at -7 all week and a push was ultimately the result.

World Series Odds Review

09/07/2011

By: Joe Nelson

The MLB playoff field is virtually set and the odds on a World Series champion wager may be better now than when the playoffs actually start. In recent years the overwhelming favorite has rarely been the winner of the Fall Classic so it is worth taking a look at some of futures odds and considering which teams may have some value.

Philadelphia Phillies: 2/1

The Phillies are again overwhelming favorites given the brilliant pitching staff and a fairly unthreatening path in the National League. This is a very average hitting team however, batting .254 for the season while hitting only 135 home runs. Either of Philadelphia’s first round opponents Arizona or Milwaukee has scored more runs on the season and there will be some questions with how the pitching staff will be handled. There are five viable starting options but obviously Philadelphia will not need five starters and it remains to be seen if the team will attempt to use someone like Roy Oswalt or Vance Worley in the bullpen in the playoffs. How they handle John Mayberry and Raul Ibanez is also another interesting question and in a short series it will be tough to maximize the potential of the team. Milwaukee and Atlanta both have starting rotations that can hang with the Phillies and both may have more reliable closing options as well. At 2/1 there is certainly no value in taking the Phillies as they showed last year anything can happen in a short series if a team gets hot.

Boston Red Sox: 7/2

The Red Sox have been sinking in the AL East standings and the injury to Josh Beckett certainly could be a problematic blow to the team. Still Boston has the strongest odds in the American League. The Red Sox are the top hitting team in baseball at .280 but New York has scored more runs while allowing fewer runs despite the perception that New York’s pitching is vulnerable. Boston has very average bullpen numbers for the season including a 23-17 record in games decided by the bullpen and while Jonathan Papelbon has done his part the Red Sox have converted just 33 saves on the year as they have not played a great deal of close games. In the playoffs those type of blowout wins will be much less likely and right now it looks like the Red Sox will be on the road for the first series possibly going against Justin Verlander or C.J. Wilson in game 1, which will not be an easy situation. Boston is definitely a threat to win it all but the pitching staff looks a bit less reliable than hoped for and in the playoffs pitching is certainly critical.

New York Yankees: 5/1

The Yankees are the most popular team in baseball by a mile but this team may actually be undervalued. New York is the highest scoring team in baseball and they have hit the most home runs in baseball by a wide margin. The pitching staff seems to be a question mark but C.C. Sabathia will start many of the key games and he has shown an ability to make starts on short rest in past playoff series. The offense is also always going to be capable of bailing the team out even if they get a marginal starting effort. Everyone is quick to criticize A.J. Burnett but they probably won’t need him in the playoffs as Ivan Nova has been very capable in the starting role and Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon seem to still have something in the tank. Phil Hughes has also been very good in a few of his starts as well though he has been hit-or-miss lately. The big edge that the Yankees have is the bullpen, featuring the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League and only twelve losses by relievers all season, the fewest in baseball. New York appears on track to win the division and have a home field edge until the World Series should they get there so it is surprising that New York is not among the overwhelming favorites and there could be value playing the Yankees now as the odds could certainly drop as they get more attention.

Milwaukee Brewers: 13/2

The Brewers have been a fun story and with an amazing record since the All Star break few teams are playing better. Milwaukee has not played a lot of top flight competition as the NL Central has been a really weak division this season and the Brewers have cleaned up with a 45-25 in division record. Milwaukee was just 6-9 in interleague play including going 1-5 versus Boston and New York and the Brewers are also 3-5 against the Braves and 3-4 against Arizona so few of the wins in the overall record have been high quality. Milwaukee has a good starting rotation but no starter has been dominant and the bullpen lacks left-handed options though presumably Chris Narveson or Randy Wolf could be used in relief in the playoffs. Milwaukee has been a dominant home team but even with better play of late the overall road record is ugly. Milwaukee has a quality team on both sides of the ball and will not be an easy out in the postseason but ultimately the chances of a first ever title for the Brewers is probably less likely than these odds suggest as the number is set low due to the great recent run and the big money that Brewer backers have made in the last two months.

Atlanta Braves: 9/1

The Braves are perhaps the least interesting of the playoff teams but they are a viable threat. Only four teams in baseball currently have a better record than the Braves and Atlanta has a huge advantage in the National League in that they will not have to play Philadelphia in the wild card round. Atlanta quietly has a strong road record at 38-31 and only Philadelphia and San Francisco have allowed fewer runs in the National League. Atlanta has a high quality starting rotation and the pitching staff has a lot of playoff experience, unlike Milwaukee or Arizona. Atlanta currently has the best bullpen ERA of any team that will make the playoffs as rookie Craig Kimbrel has been dominant and there are several high quality late innings options. The offense has less punch than all of the other playoff contenders but the Braves have hit 156 home runs and while strikeouts can be common this is a team that quietly is finding ways to win and can be very tough to beat in close games. Atlanta won’t be favored in the wild card round if they face the Brewers but that may not be accurate and there is some value on a pitching oriented team that quietly enters the playoffs as San Francisco showed last season.

Texas Rangers: 10/1

The defending American League champions will have to go through one of the AL East powers in the first round but the Rangers have the offensive potential to win in a slugfest with either squad. The Rangers have the second best team batting average in baseball and they will get games in the humid heat in Arlington which can be a big advantage. Texas has the most risk wagering this far away from the playoffs as there is a legitimate chance that the Angels catch the Rangers in the standings. Only New York, Philadelphia, and Boston have better run differentials for the season and Texas is the third highest scoring team in baseball. Texas has the worst bullpen among the playoff-bound teams but the unit performed well in the playoffs last year and the struggles of the bullpen are somewhat a reflection of the lack of depth in the starting rotation. After C.J. Wilson there are few proven options as Matt Harrison and Derek Holland can be inconsistent and Alexi Ogando seems to be running out of gas. Colby Lewis is veteran option and Scott Feldman could work his way back in the mix with a strong final month. In reality the back of the rotation is no worse than what the Yankees, Tigers, or Red Sox are offering so that weakness should not be a great concern. With that said the battle in the AL West could get tight down the stretch and the Rangers may be the only team that enters the playoffs with a less than ideal rotation lined up given that they may need to win in the final week. Texas does not have a lot of value at this point as last year’s run will be hard to replicate.

Detroit Tigers: 12/1

The Tigers surprised the Yankees in the wild card round the last time they were in the playoffs and they could get that opportunity again. Detroit could actually pass the AL West leader in the coming weeks so Comerica Park could host the wild card winner and Detroit will be a tough match-up in game 1 with likely Cy Young winner Justin Verlander on the mound. Detroit does not have a great bullpen and the rest of the rotation has been hit-or-miss with Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer but Doug Fister has really pitched well since joining the team and he could move into a key role on this team in a short series. Porcello and Scherzer are not capable of giving you great starts every week but they have the potential to deliver one great start in a series and that is all the Tigers may need to move on. Detroit’s offense has great numbers and may be undervalued a bit given that Comerica Park is a clear pitcher’s park. The Tigers are batting .274 on the season, third best in baseball and the lineup takes a great deal of walks. Detroit also seems to have a lot of late season momentum and with Jim Leyland on the bench Detroit could be a team that makes one of those special runs as they have the stars and storylines to make a fitting end. The odds were better a few weeks ago on the Tigers but this is still a team that can be worth a look for a big potential payday.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 15/1

Arizona will be the team that is quickly dismissed as a World Series contender as most are shocked that this is a .500 team, let alone a team that is 20-games above .500 and running away from last year’s World Series champion in the NL West. Arizona most likely will have to play Philadelphia in the first round which means these odds could even be steeper but passing Milwaukee is still certainly a possibility. Getting caught by the Giants is also still a risk although it has not looked likely in the last few weeks. Arizona is a very tough home team and the offense is much better than anyone realizes. Arizona has scored more runs than any of the other NL playoff teams and while the team average is just .250 the Diamondbacks have a lot of extra-base hits in a home stadium that is favorable to batters. The pitching staff has also come together to deliver remarkable results especially considering the difficulty of pitching at Chase Field. Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson form a near elite top two for the staff and Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter are both capable of delivering a strong outing when needed. The Arizona bullpen does not have great overall numbers but J.J. Putz has solidified the back end and Collmenter could be very effective if he is moved back to a relief role for a short series. Arizona should not be discounted but ultimately given the road faced in the playoffs it will be hard see this team winning three consecutive series as healthy underdogs and the odds do present enough value to make a case.

Los Angeles Angels: 30/1

The Angels obviously have nice payout at the current odds and should Los Angeles make the playoffs they will be a dangerous team with a starting pitching 1-2-3 that would be the best in the American League. The chance of the Angels making the playoffs appears to slim however as the Angels have a more difficult schedule than the Rangers ahead with a series against the Yankees and a long road trip. The Angels do have the final series at home against Texas so there is a chance but at this point it would be worth waiting until the Angels make the playoffs and then taking the Angels as only slightly less substantial underdogs entering the postseason.

4^th Quarter Covers – Sep. 1-4

09/05/2011

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in many games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week. Each week there are teams that cover that didn’t deserve to and teams that likely should have taken the cash, get the details in this weekly column.

Syracuse (-6) 36, Wake Forest 29

Sharps were treated to a bitter opening night as books surprisingly took a lot of Wake Forest action to push the Syracuse favorite line down to -6 after opening at -8. The Demon Deacons certainly looked like the right side most of the way with a 20-7 halftime lead and a 29-14 early fourth quarter lead. The Orange battled back with an impressive drive to cut the lead to eight about halfway through the final frame. After forcing a quick punt it took just one play for the Orange to get in position to tie and they converted on the 2-point try to tie the game with just over seven minutes to go. An interception gave the Orange a shot to win the game but Wake Forest backers appeared set to still cash but the Syracuse field goal attempt was blocked with less than three minutes to go. In overtime Syracuse scored first and then held on defense for a seven-point final margin and a miraculous cover on the later week and closing lines in a wild opening night game.

Ohio State (-31.5) 42, Akron 0

Akron did virtually nothing on offense in this game but the Buckeyes left the door open for an underdog cover. Ohio State was lucky to be up 21-0 at the half as an interception set up a score in the final two minutes of the half after mixed results on offense. The Buckeyes moved the ball much better under QB Todd Bauserman but he and Braxton Miller split the snaps. Ohio State led by just 28 entering the fourth quarter but quickly pushed the lead to 35-0 and without much of a challenge from Akron the Buckeyes padded the lead late to ensure the cover.

Alabama (-39) 48, Kent State 7

Alabama was in control early against Kent State with a 21-0 lead but with a massive spread the 24-0 halftime lead did not seem to be enough. Kent State scored first in the second half and one score looked like it would be enough for a Flashes cover as Alabama led just 38-7 entering the fourth quarter as Alabama was plagued with turnovers and sloppy play on offense throughout the game. The Crimson Tide added ten fourth quarter points however including a field goal with just over five minutes to go that got Alabama just past the closing spread.

South Carolina (-21) 56, East Carolina 37

Those backing the Pirates had to feel good early as East Carolina led 17-0 as three touchdown underdogs almost halfway through the second quarter. South Carolina started to get things going on offense after Stephen Garcia was put in a QB after the first quarter but the Pirates still led by ten at halftime, looking like a sure underdog cover. The Gamecocks took advantage of turnovers for quick scores in the second half and turned the game around with four third quarter touchdowns, taking a 42-31 lead into the fourth quarter. It looked like the Gamecocks would secure a miracle cover after a punt return touchdown pushed the margin to 25 in the fourth quarter but East Carolina would get back within the numbers with a late scoring drive.

Texas (-24) 34, Rice 9

While Texas more than doubled the yardage that Rice posted the Longhorns had to settle for field goals early in the game and led by just seven at halftime. Rice actually trimmed that lead to 13-9 in the third quarter before a big pass play got Texas into the end zone. Texas moved the ball with ease on the first two fourth quarter drives, to go up 34-9 with about six minutes to go in the game, getting past the spread for the first time and Rice was not able to threaten in its final possessions.

Illinois (-19) 33, Arkansas State 15

Arkansas State played Illinois very tough in the first half, actually leading 8-7 with less than three minutes to go in the second quarter. Illinois put together a quick scoring drive and got the ball back in time for a field goal in the closing seconds to lead by nine at the half. While Arkansas State continued to post strong yardage totals, Illinois did all the scoring pushing the lead to 30-8 entering the fourth quarter and adding a field goal halfway through the final frame. Arkansas State was able to find the end zone with just over three minutes to go to get just back within a closing number that had dropped throughout the week.

Florida State (-30.5) 34, UL-Monroe 0

The Seminoles did their part on defense as Louisiana Monroe was held to less than 200 yards while never entering the red zone. The offense had to punt on its first two possessions and never seemed to get into a great rhythm. Florida State led just 17-0 at halftime and 24-0 entering the fourth quarter but a field goal and a touchdown in the fourth quarter allowed the Seminoles to sneak past the large spread.

Clemson (-14.5) 43, Troy 19

This game featured a very misleading final as Clemson actually trailed at halftime 16-13 and the Tigers only out-gained the Trojans by 45 yards. Clemson hit a few big plays to take a ten-point lead into the fourth quarter but that lead was quickly cut to just seven points. A 75-yard rush gave Clemson a 14-point lead and in desperation Troy gave Clemson great field position late and the Tigers added ten points in the final five minutes to get past the spread and create a lopsided final in game that was quite even.

Florida (-34.5) 41, Florida Atlantic 3

Florida had dominant numbers in this game but the Gators led just 24-3 at halftime. A blocked punt return gave the Gators a 31-3 lead entering the fourth quarter but it took until the fourth quarter for Florida to get past the spread. Florida Atlantic had a missed field goal and a turnover on downs in Florida territory so this game was not far from going the other way.

NFC Team Win Total Bets

08/31/2011

With three weeks of the preseason in the books it is time to release annual NFL over/under win total predictions. This season presented some challenges with the lockout and wild free agency period before shortened training camps. There are some opportunities ahead with emphasis on the schedules and the value created by the general perception of each team. Here are three picks for the NFC in the 2011 NFL season.

New York Giants UNDER 9.5

The Giants finished 10-6 last season but lost the tiebreaker with Philadelphia for the NFC East title and then lost the tiebreaker with the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers for the final wild card spot. New York outscored opponents by 47 points on the season, tied for eleventh best in the league as they were the third highest scoring team in the NFC, averaging almost 25 points per game. The Giants only beat one team that had a winning record last season, the dominant defensive effort against the Bears on Sunday night in week 4 so it was a flawed 10-6 record. New York lost both meetings to Philadelphia, though they probably deserved to win the home meeting in week 15 when DeSean Jackson returned a late punt for the winning score. That was the only close loss of the season for New York as every other defeat came by ten points or more. The Giants did have four wins that came by eight or fewer points however so the final record may have been inflated.

The schedule will be tougher in 2011 as New York trades the four mediocre AFC South teams for the AFC East teams although the NFC East also gets to play all four NFC West teams. The Giants faced a third place schedule in 2010, drawing mediocre teams in Carolina and Seattle who will be replaced by New Orleans and Green Bay this season, two elite teams that the other three NFC East teams will avoid. New York will technically play nine games in its home stadium as the game with the Jets will be designated as a road game but the early season travel is difficult with three of the first four games of the season on the road. After playing one of the biggest games of the season at New England in week nine the Giants will then have to go across the country for a second straight road game in San Francisco. The other west coast game at Arizona also comes in a second straight road game after a big divisional game at Philadelphia. Even if New York gets off to a strong start, the late season schedule is daunting, closing the year with Philadelphia, at New Orleans, Green Bay, at Dallas, Washington, at NY Jets, and Dallas in the final seven games.

New York’s injuries on defense have been troubling in the preseason and the defense led by a great pass rush will be counted on to make big plays this season. The early season schedule is short on great passing teams so New York could be able to survive being short handed a bit in the secondary but New York has not proven it is ready on offense. After throwing 25 interceptions last season Eli Manning will be heavily scrutinized and he has made some of the same mistakes in preseason action. After scoring 99 points in four preseason games last year the Giants have scored just 57 in three games this year and a lot of those points came late in one game against Chicago. With a road game to close the preseason this week the Giants will essentially play four road games in five weeks which is a tough way to start the year, especially with the difficult scheduling week surrounding the hurricane situation in late August. That scheduling disadvantage could take its toll even though the weaker opponents on the schedule will come early in the season. Look for the Giants to get off to a decent start at the midway point, perhaps 5-4 or better but the final stretch will likely knock the Giants out of playoff contention and likely short of this win total number.

St. Louis Rams UNDER 7.5

After going 1-15 in 2009 the Rams were a nice story last season but they finished just 7-9. It was a great improvement but St. Louis was outscored by 39 points on the season and only Carolina and Minnesota scored fewer points than St. Louis on the season in the NFC. The Rams went just 2-6 on the road with only wins at Denver and at Arizona and only a bizarre 20-17 win over San Diego counted as a victory against a team that finished with a winning record. The Rams were not overly competitive against the best teams that they faced, losing by 38 to Detroit, by 17 to Atlanta, 18 against New Orleans, and 14 against Kansas City. In a make-or-break game to win the division and make the playoffs at the end of the season the Rams posted just six points and while rookie QB Sam Bradford showed some promise, the offense has a long ways to go before being considered a high quality team and a conference championship contender in the NFC.

This season the schedule will be dramatically more difficult, particularly early in the year. The Rams trade the four teams from the weak AFC West, which contributed two wins to St. Louis last season for the four teams in the AFC North. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are known for physical defensive play and Cleveland and Cincinnati may be better on defense than most expect. The Rams do get the Bengals at home but that game comes late in the year instead of early when a young QB may be more vulnerable. The Rams played the four NFC South teams last year and that was a quality division but St. Louis and the rest of the NFC West has to face the NFC East teams this year and that group of teams may be even stronger from top to bottom. Being a second place team last season has a huge penalty on the schedule in the NFC this season as the Rams have to play the Packers and the Saints, two elite contenders that no one else in the division will have to face. The Rams will have a tough time surviving the first half of the season with this opening schedule, hosting Philadelphia, at NY Giants, Baltimore, and Washington before a week 5 bye week and then games at Green Bay, at Dallas, and home against New Orleans. Best case scenario might be 2-5 in that stretch and while that won’t knock the Rams out of the NFC West race it could be tough for a young team to overcome a discouraging start to the season. Three separate times St. Louis will have to play back-to-back road games and late season road games in the elements at Seattle and at Pittsburgh will also present serious challenges.

The Rams are a trendy pick to win the NFC West with an up-and-coming QB and a defense that was statistically the best in the division last year, allowing less than 21 points per game. Bradford did not once pass for over 300 yards last season and only once did St. Louis have a 100 yard receiver as the defense led the way in most wins. St. Louis did allow 30 or more points five times last season and the numbers likely benefited from the offensive challenges that were faced by the rest of the division. While it is hard to say that any of the other three teams in the division will be greatly improved, all three have made some changes that could help the cause. As bad as the NFC West was last season the Rams went just 3-3, splitting with all three teams. St. Louis might be the best team in the NFC West but they have been dealt a huge disadvantage in the schedule and the best team in a division does not always end up with the best record as the Bears certainly proved last year.

Washington Redskins OVER 6.5

Last season Washington got off to a 3-2 start and the wins were not of the cheap variety, beating Dallas, winning at Philadelphia, and the knocking off Green Bay. The Redskins needed overtime to beat the Packers but Washington also lost an overtime game against Houston in week 2 and could have just as easily been a 4-1 team at that point in the season. Washington then lost a 3-point game against the Colts and then won in Chicago for a healthy 4-3 start to the Mike Shanahan era. Things went downhill from there. Week 8 was the controversial game against the Lions where Shanahan benched McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman in the final two possessions. This was a game Washington had led 25-20 halfway through the fourth quarter and the move backfired with a fumble return sealing the game. Amidst the controversy and distractions the Redskins were hammered on Monday night following the bye week against the Eagles and then won just two games the rest of the way. Four of the final five losses came by just four points or less so while the Redskins finished 6-10 they were in most games. Washington allowed 377 points last season which tied for second best in the division and if you take out the 59-point game against Philadelphia Washington had very respectable defensive numbers for the year.

For most Washington still projects as the clear #4 team in the NFC East but that does not mean an improved record can not happen. The NFC East faces all four NFC West teams and Washington should have opportunities to win each of those games. As a benefit of finishing fourth in the division last season, the Redskins are the only NFC East team that gets to play Carolina and Minnesota, two rebuilding teams that could struggle this season. Washington does have to play the four AFC East teams which will be a challenge but the Jets and Patriots both must play at Washington so an upset is not unthinkable. Washington also has a relatively easy first half schedule which should allow for a positive start to the season that could carry some momentum into the tougher games later in the year. Washington has the first two games of the season at home and in the first eight games will play Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, Carolina, Buffalo, and San Francisco, six teams that all had losing records last season. The final five weeks of the season will be a big challenge but Washington is a team that could actually be in the playoff picture most of the season with a very respectable record.

Preseason wins certainly do not mean anything but what Washington has done this preseason is important. The Redskins were one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL last season, averaging only 91 yards per game, better than only two other teams. That was from a Mike Shanahan coached team that thrived running the ball in Denver. In the preseason the Redskins have rushed for 140, 215, and 103 yards in three games and the low rushing mark of 103 came against a Baltimore defense that is committed to stopping the run. The Redskins lack a proven star RB but Ti