1/5/2012

PLAYOFF HOME DOGS

PLAY ON: Any NFL home underdog in the playoffs. 20-9, 68.9% since 1980

PLAY ON: Denver

 

12/15/2011

Slumping Road Chalk

 PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL single-digit road favorite that has failed to cover in three consecutive games:

40-26-1, 60.6% since 1998

PLAY AGAINST: Cincinnati, Detroit

 

 

11/12/2011

Suspect D Road Chalk

PLAY AGAINST: Any road favorite coming off a S/U win in which they allowed 35 or more points

41-26-1, 61.2% since 2004 

 

PLAY AGAINST: Baylor, Oklahoma State

 

11/5/2011

Big Win Letdown

PLAY AGAINST: Any double-digit NCAA favorite that won S/U as home underdogs the previous week.

36-18, 66.7% since 2004 

 

PLAY AGAINST: Ohio State (Play ON: Indiana)

 

Tighten It: If the team is a double-digit road favorite

13-3, 81.3% since 2004: Fits: No Application

 

10/30/2011

Lucky 0-7

PLAY ON: Any NFL team that is 0-7

17-4-1, 80.9% since 1991

 

PLAY ON: Indianapolis

Next Week the system could fit Miami or St. Louis

 

Tighten It: If the 0-7 team is at home

10-1, 90.9% since 1991: Fits: No Application

 

 

 

10/14/2011

Questionable Perfect Road Favorites

PLAY AGAINST: Any undefeated NCAA team at 5-0 or better as a single-digit road favorite.

47-30-2, 61% since 2000

 

PLAY AGAINST: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State

PLAY ON: Maryland, Virginia, Texas

 

Tighten It: If the opponent lost its last game

20-9, 68.9% since 2000: Fits: Maryland, Texas

10/1/2011

Undefeated Showdown Home Dogs
PLAY ON: Any NCAA single-sigit home underdog uin game 4 of later in a match-up of undefeated teams. 32-16, 66.7% since 1985

PLAY ON: Florida, Kansas State

9/24/2011

Early Losing Streak Favorites

PLAY AGAINST: Any game 4 NCAA favorite of 14 or more coming off back-to-back S/U losses

21-10, 67% since 1986

PLAY AGAINST: Mississippi State

PLAY ON: Louisiana Tech

9/17/2011

Game 3 Bounce Back Home Favorites:

PLAY AGAINST: Any game 3 single-digit home favorite that lost its last game. 

95-61-1, 60.9% since 1980

PLAY AGAINST: Connecticut, Iowa, Boston College, Minnesota,

Notre Dame, Ball State, BYU

PLAY ON: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Duke, Miami OH,

Michigan State, Buffalo, Utah

 

Tighten It: If the home favorite is 1-1 and not 0-2.

60-29-1, 67.4% since 1980

Applies to: Connecticut, Iowa, Ball State, BYU

PLAY ON: Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Utah

9/11/2011

10-Game Winner Opening Dogs:

PLAY AGAINST: Any opening game underdog that won at least ten games in the previous regular season.  

34-20-5, 63.0% since 1991

 

PLAY AGAINST: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Indianapolis  

PLAY ON: (Green Bay, Baltimore, Atlanta, Houston)

 

Tighten It: If the current underdog lost the last meeting with the foe

24-6-3, 80% since 1991

Applies to: Chicago, PLAY ON: Atlanta

9/3/2011

Simple 7+ Recent Opening Road Favorites System:
PLAY ON: Any opening game NCAA road favorite of 7 or more that won at least seven games in the previous season.

40-20 66.7 % since 1997

PLAY ON: Mississippi State, Ohio

Tighten It: Road Favorites of 14 or more are 25-9, 73.5%

Applies to: Mississippi State