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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#781 Air Force +13.5 over UNLV 9:00 PM CT

UNLV is 18-7 on the season for a year of great improvement after winning just 11 games last season. After going 11-2 in a mostly light non-conference campaign the Rebels are just 7-5 in Mountain West play. One of those wins came in overtime and six of those wins came by 10 or fewer points with only Saturday 85-70 win hosting Wyoming coming by more than tonight’s spread.

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UNLV won by just five at Air Force a month ago despite shooting over 60 percent as the Falcons dominated the offensive glass and turnover counts. UNLV is an efficient scoring team in the paint but the numbers have headed downward in league play as the schedule has stiffened. UNLV is a marginal free throw shooting team and the worst 3-point shooting team in the Mountain West as the marginal 3-point defense for the Falcons isn’t likely to be a factor tonight.

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Air Force will slow this game down the and the Falcons are coming off back-to-back wins over Colorado State and New Mexico as they have been able to win high scoring results as well. Only two of the last 11 games for Air Force have ended in losses by more than this spread as in contrast to UNLV this is a veteran team with great depth. The Rebels also have a huge game with San Diego State up next this weekend and Air Force has covered in the past five meetings in this series and UNLV is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight lined home games.

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