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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#591 Air Force +9.5 over UNLV 1:00 PM CT

This game is on UNLV’s home court but the Rebels closed the regular season dropping five games in a row including back-to-back home games. Their last win came against Air Force with a tight 8-point victory on Valentine’s Day with the Falcons fighting back into the game after a bad start, climbing to within a point in the final minutes. Air Force only had two fewer MWC wins than UNLV and most losses were competitive this season.

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As a heavy underdog Air Force is appealing with a very slow pace of play that will disrupt the up-tempo Rebels. Air Force has a very high rate of creating turnovers on defense and while the offense isn’t a strong shooting team they Falcons get to the line often and hit over 74 percent. UNLV is a poor outside shooting team and a squad vulnerable to turnovers and both regular season meetings were very tight in this series.

The advantage of playing at home in the conference tournament is likely negated on day one with an 11:00 AM Las Vegas time start as a sparse crowd is likely on hand for the opening game of the tournament. Only one time in 18 MWC conference games did UNLV win by more than 10 points as this is an appealing price for the Falcons to hang around.

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Nelly’s is 9-2 in March, now 40-14 since February 1 – don’t miss our update for Wednesday evening. Bobby Dalton is hot in March as well with a 13-2 record the past five days – get a daytime 10* as part of a Trips-2-Win 2/3 today. Maximum Sports is on a 25-10 run and has a 2/3 offer for Wednesday with an afternoon selection included. Big E has posted a Biggie play for tournament action tonight as well.