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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#553 Chicago Bulls +10.5 over Miami Heat 6:35 PM CT

The Heat are well rested and coming off back-to-back wins but those wins came by single-digits vs. arguably the two worst teams in the NBA. Miami is back at home after playing six of the past seven games on the road and this is a team with a stunning 11-13 S/U record at home. Miami would make the playoffs today at 24-24 but this squad is barely positive in average scoring differential and over the past 12 games Miami has just two wins by double-digit margins. One of those wins came in Chicago with a 14-point result but that game came following back-to-back losses for a desperate spot for the team and it was also likely Dwyane Wade’s last trip to Chicago.

This turnaround spot back at home won’t provide the same motivation especially with Oklahoma City visiting South Beach on Friday. Chicago has only 11 wins on the season but the Bulls have more road wins than home wins and Chicago has quietly played competitive ball in the past week with a 1-4 run that has featured only one loss by more than five points. Chicago has covered in four of the past six meetings between these teams including the past two road visits to Miami and the Heat are 4-7 ATS hosting losing teams this season.

Miami has only been this big of a favorite once this season and Miami is a losing ATS team overall at home while the Bulls are a .500 ATS road squad often catching big prices. Chicago played tough in Brooklyn last night and playing in a third game in four days increases this spread even further. Chicago has allowed only 108 points per game over the past five games for improved defense while in contrast the Heat are allowing 46 percent shooting in that span, well above the team’s season pace. The recent loss of Derrick Jones is an underrated loss for the Heat and Miami simply shouldn’t be trusted at this price.

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