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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#519/520 ‘OVER 220.5’ Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs 7:05 PM CT

Detroit has been on an offensive surge on the current 7-1 streak since early February, posting an average of 118 points per game on that span even with recent games against good defensive teams including Boston, Miami, and Indiana. The ‘over’ has collected in seven of those eight games and while today’s total is several points higher than the home meeting with the Spurs in early January, the elevated number is more than justified.

The ‘over’ is 12-2 in the last 14 Spurs games as a San Antonio franchise known for defense has been struggling mightily. On that ‘over’ run the totals in Spurs games have been at least 219.5 in 13 of the past 14 games but hit an over inflated with a 233.5 number in Brooklyn on Monday. That was the final game of a lengthy road trip for San Antonio spanning both sides of the All Star break.

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San Antonio has allowed at least 107 points in 13 of the past 14 games however and opponents have scored 120 or more in six of the past eight games with an average allowance of more than 122 points per game. San Antonio has been one of the league’s best ‘over’ teams at 38-24 on the season and both of these teams have allowed 48 percent shooting over the past five games.

The January meeting between these teams featured 226 points even with Detroit getting only 14 points at the line at home and connecting at just 28 percent from 3-point range. The Spurs shot well for the game but not from beyond the arc and there were few turnovers and only 221 fast break points in the contest as there was certainly room for more scoring.

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