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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) -125 over San Francisco Giants (Pomeranz) 9:15 PM CT

Arizona had a pair of tough-luck losses vs. lefties in San Diego earlier this week but the Diamondbacks have nine wins vs. southpaw starters this season, tying for the most in the NL while a season OPS of .825 vs. left-handed pitching is also an elite figure that trails only a few teams in baseball. Mired in five straight losses, yesterday’s off-day should help the team re-group while they get to face a demoralized Giants team that lost in 13 innings in a game the Giants led most of the way Thursday afternoon. A strong start from Madison Bumgarner and a lot of bullpen innings were wasted in a loss that will make this Friday night game a difficult turnaround contest.

The Giants are 9-10 in May but -26 in scoring as a short-term surge early in the month appears to have been a mirage. San Francisco has very poor offensive numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a season OPS of just .619, posting only 11 home runs in 626 plate appearances while the Giants are 6-10 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Robbie Ray remains one of the top strikeout producers in baseball and after an injury-plagued 2018, he appears to be back in his 2017 form, posting a 11.5 K/9 with a 3.25 ERA. Ray has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and he pitched well vs. the Giants last week.

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San Francisco has a great bullpen but six key relievers were used yesterday for double-digit pitch counts and Drew Pomeranz will be hard to count on for a long outing. Pomeranz owns a 5.66 ERA this season and once in eight starts has completed six innings. He has a 4.6 BB/9 and his numbers don’t improve much at AT&T Park. Right-handed batters have hit .292 vs. Pomeranz this season and Arizona can generally feature a lineup with eight right-handed hitters. These teams are only a few games apart in the standings but are 75 runs apart in scoring differential and the losing streak puts Arizona at a very reasonable price in a favorable matchup and situation Friday.

Don’t miss a huge 15* Best Bet Game of the Month Total from Bobby Dalton for Friday Night Baseball. Dalton won his April 15* and he guarantees to win tonight with a 15* for $29.99. Get three additional picks from Bobby Dalton tonight in a Trips-2-Win offer as well!

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Free MLB Pick Saturday

#969/970 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Oakland Athletics (Mengden) at Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 3:10 PM CT

Pitching for the Tigers Matthew Boyd isn’t getting a lot of attention but he has had an All Star caliber run in his first nine starts with a 3.15 ERA and a 10.8 K/9. He has now allowed more than three earned runs in any of his starts this season and his 2.86 FIP suggests it is a sustainable pace for the 28-year-old who has shown potential but inconsistency in past seasons. Oakland is the last place team in the AL West a year after making the playoffs and while Oakland has hit significantly better vs. left-handers they are batting with a .712 team OPS the past 23 games for marginal production.

That production bests the Tigers potential with Detroit’s lineup among the league’s worst in most offensive categories. The Tigers have the second highest strikeout rate in baseball while offering a very low walk rate and the second fewest home runs in MLB. That bodes well for Daniel Mengden in his second start of the season after posting great AAA numbers. Mengden was a useful starter for Oakland last year and while he allowed four runs in his 2019 debut he surrendered only five hits.

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Detroit has not topped five runs in 10 straight games to average just 2.4 runs per game. Oakland has posted 24 runs in the first two games of this series but the 17-run showing on Thursday featured only 16 hits and five unearned runs while these teams scored nine runs on only 13 hits last night. The weather in Detroit this afternoon should also favor pitching with cooler temperatures and the wind blowing win fairly strong from left-center.

Bobby Dalton has a big 4-play
card in MLB Saturday as he looks for a third straight winning week while 3-1 in
his last four Best Bets. Nelly’s MLB is 6-3 since Monday and we have a
guaranteed afternoon total.

Bobby Dalton is 4-1 in the
Conference Finals and is featuring a Game 3 side & total package in the NBA
Saturday. Nelly’s is 2-0 in the Conference Finals and 10-6 in our last 16
playoff sides – don’t miss our Game 3 pick.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#951 Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) -115 over Cincinnati Reds (Roark) 5:40 PM CT

With a pessimistic Pecota projection and some off-season uncertainty the Cubs started slowly in 2019 but now halfway through May, Chicago has the NL’s best record at 24-14, going 21-6 since April 11. The Cubs have won seven of the past eight road games and the lineup is crushing right-handed pitching with an .807 season OPS. Tanner Roark has posted good numbers for the Reds with a 3.27 ERA but a 4.80 xFIP hovers over his season line. While he has an 8.1 K/9 he also had a 4.1 BB/9 and Roark has benefitted from facing some of the NL’s lesser offensive teams this season.

Kyle Hendricks might be on pace to have a season that resembles his great 2016 campaign. While he has just two wins so far, his ERA is 3.19 and he has walked just eight batters in over 42 innings of work. He has an elevated BABIP and only a 65 percent strand rate as he is poised to improve his numbers in the coming weeks. His road splits present a great contrast to his 0.62 Wrigley Field ERA but his road starts have been exclusively against NL contenders and two of those outings were his first two starts of the season. Cincinnati has hit left-handed pitching quite well this season but with a .667 team OPS, this is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB vs. right-handed pitching. The Reds have outscored foes by 20 runs so far in May but are just 6-6, underscoring the recent issues of the bullpen with Cincinnati 1-4 in extra-innings games and 6-13 in one-run games this season.

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20-runs in season scoring differential came exclusively in  sweeping a three-game set with the lowly Marlins however and against two other elite NL squads the Reds have gone 0-6 facing the Dodgers and Brewers. On the road this season the Cubs have scored 7.0 runs per game while batting .283 vs. right-handers while the Reds have hit just .218 vs. right-handers at home this season. Even if Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist remain out this is a reasonable price to support the NL’s top team and a pitcher that is capable of being one of the best in the league.

Nelly’s Baseball has a 2/3 offer for Tuesday MLB action for $25 – our biggest card of the season so far! Bobby Dalton has won six of his last eight interleague picks and is featuring a 10* Best Bet tonight in his Trips-2-Win 2/3 for $29.99.

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Green Sheet Issue #2

Our second Green Sheet issue dives into the 2019 NFL schedule with nearly 3,000 words of analysis plus schedule numbers and rankings in seven categories for all 32 NFL teams.

Find out great nuggets from the schedule analysis: One team has a 30-44 S/U since 2000 scenario on the schedule and that squad is likely to be a favorite in that game. Three teams fall into a win total valuation situation that is 4-1 the past two years including pegging major collapses from the Jaguars and 49ers last season – teams that fell short of the summer win total numbers by 4.5 games! There is one team that fits a scheduling role that has produced teams combining to go 56-39-1 the past two years. Another simple schedule formula has produced the ‘over’ in five of six win totals the past two seasons and four squads apply in 2019. Find out those teams and more in Green Sheet Issue #2.

This is just a four-page issue and as such is only $6 instead of the regular $12 price – sign up right here!

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#956 St. Louis Cardinals (Wainwright) -140 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Williams) 7:15 PM CT

Adam
Wainwright owns a 4.71 ERA on the season but one bad start at Wrigley Field
skews the numbers as Wainwright had posted four quality starts in his previous
five starts before running into trouble in Chicago last Sunday. At home
Wainwright owns a 3.00 ERA and he gets to face a struggling Pirates lineup with
a .675 team OPS on the season.

Trevor Williams was a clear-cut regression candidate this spring after a strong 2018 season that saw his ERA finish 1.5 runs lower than his xFIP. His strikeout rate is again among the worst of eligible NL starters at just 6.6 K/9 and his xFIP is 4.35 this season despite a respectable 3.74 ERA. Williams has allowed 16 hits and nine runs in his last two starts and hasn’t allowed fewer than two runs in any of his last six starts.

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The offensive splits for the Cardinals are very clear with a .794 team OPS vs. right-handers and a .674 team OPS vs. left-handers. Against a righty last night the Cardinals had a big night and eventually torched the Pittsburgh pitching staff for 17 runs. Despite the big output the Cardinals still failed in 14 at-bats with runners in scoring position and didn’t hit a single home run in the game while having only one two-out RBI as the damage could have been even worse. Pittsburgh has a 5.98 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and St. Louis is 14-4 in the last 18 home games.

Check out a 10* Best Bet on the diamond from Bobby Dalton Friday or look for a MLB total from Nelly’s tonight.

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Free MLB Pick May 8

#972 Detroit Tigers (Boyd) -115 over Los Angeles Angels (Skaggs) 6:10 PM CT

Matt
Boyd has shown flashes of greatness in his MLB climb the past three years but
this season he has put it all together to emerge as one of the AL’s top pitchers.
Detroit lacks a great offense behind him but Boyd has posted a 3.05 ERA and
actually a 2.10 FIP that is the strongest in the entire American League by a
wide margin. His 11.6 K/9 is also among the best strikeout rates in the league
and he had accomplished that rate with a very low walk rate. Boyd had had to
pitch at Fenway and at Yankee Stadium this season as it has been a difficult
path and he is riding six consecutive quality starts since a marginal first
outing in late March.

The Angels have been competitive this season but the offensive numbers fall off a cliff vs. left-handers with a .631 team OPS vs. southpaws, the fifth worst mark in MLB compared to a very strong .774 team OPS vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly the Angels are 13-10 vs. right-handed starters but only 3-9 vs. left-handers. Detroit has been one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball but the Tigers are a winning team at Comerica Park where Boyd has posted even stronger numbers. The Tigers are also a much better hitting vs. left-handers with a jump of 28 points in team OPS.

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Tyler
Skaggs looked like a breakout candidate in a shortened 2018 season but he hasn’t
matched that pace this season even if his ERA is 3.12 in 26 innings this
season. His strikeout rate has plummeted while his FIP of 4.22 is more
indicative of his future path of mediocrity. In his five starts Skaggs has
faced a bottom seven team in MLB in team OPS vs. left-handers four times as he
has drawn a very favorable path and still has had marginal results. His road
ERA is also nearly double his home ERA and the Angels are only 5-10 in road
games on the season. Detroit’s bullpen has rough numbers of late but with
decent starting efforts the past two games the unit should be in better shape
for Wednesday night.

Check out a LATE NIGHT play from Nelly’s for Wednesday night – only $15!

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2019-20 Green Sheet #1

We have released a short off-season issue of the Green Sheet that includes the 2019 NFL Schedule Grid plus a coaching reference sheet to hang on to for the upcoming NFL season.

If you are not already signed up for the Green Sheet now is a great time to get on board as we plan to have several more off-season issues before the weekly subscription begins in late July.

Check out the first issue here – and save $10 on the full season subscription if you sign-up by May 10 using the COUPON CODE: MAY10

A $150 savings on the Nelly’s Full Season Phone Service for the 2019-20 football season expires on May 1 and a $100 discount will expire on June 1 – the phone service includes the full Green Sheet subscription as well.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#971/972 ‘OVER 8.5’ Detroit Tigers (Turnbull) at Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) 6:05 PM CT

Vince Velasquez has posted a 1.99 ERA in four starts and a relief inning for the Phillies, helping the rotation greatly with the early season struggles of Nick Pivetta and Aaron Nola. There are some big red flags for Velasquez however with his worst start his only home outing and an xFIP of 4.22. He has left 96 percent of his baserunners on base while posting a .228 BABIP. He has also made starts in Miami and at Citi Field for very favorable opportunities. Some light rain in possible in Philadelphia Tuesday but conditions shouldn’t be detrimental to offense and Philadelphia has scored 5.2 runs per game this season.

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The Phillies have
struggled pitching however with 4.7 runs per game allowed and Citizens Bank
Park has averaged 10.5 runs per game this season with the Phillies averaging
6.1 runs per game at home. This is the third city on the current road trip for
the Tigers who are the AL’s lowest scoring team with only 91 runs. Detroit has
averaged 4.9 runs per game over the past 10 contests, posting at least four
runs in six of the past nine games and averaging 5.0 runs per game on this road
trip.

Tyson Ross was scratched from this start but while Spencer Turnbull might look like a better option with a 2.77 ERA a 4.46 xFIP is a more realistic account. Turnbull hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two starts but he has also faced a light crop of opposing lineups this season. His 3.8 BB/9 is a concern and little in his career numbers suggests that his current pace is sustainable with Turnbull posting one career win and a 4.04 ERA in now just over 42 innings at the MLB level. Surrendering flyballs at a high rate against the Phillies in this ballpark can be problematic and the Detroit bullpen owns a 4.81 ERA on the season while Philadelphia hasn’t been much better as both bullpens feature a WHIP above 1.40. Over the past 10 games Detroit has a 8.37 bullpen ERA and with a double-header a week ago and several short starting efforts over the weekend the Tigers haven’t had much chance to recover even with an off day Monday.

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Bobby Dalton has gone
3-0 each of the past two days on the diamond – win again with his next
TRIPS-2-WIN 2/3 offer for Tuesday night. Nelly’s MLB has had a forgettable April
in a small sample but we expect to get an over/under winner in tonight and have
turned in a profit in four consecutive MLB seasons.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#965/966 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) at Houston Astros (Peacock) 7:10 PM CT

There
were 21 runs scored in Houston’s 11-10 loss to the Rangers but there were only
21 hits in that game for a bizarre scoring barrage led by seven home runs.
Houston only had one hit with runners in scoring position in that game despite
posting 10 runs and they only had five at-bats with runners in scoring position
as the game proved to be an extreme outlier in scoring efficiency.

While Collin McHugh had a disastrous start Sunday he managed to record 10 outs and allowed Houston to only use three relievers with Will Harris and Ryan Pressly pitching minimally enough that they should still be available today with both of those relievers still clocking 0.00 ERAs on the season. The Houston bullpen has been outstanding this season but Brad Peacock has been very sharp in 16 innings of work for the Astros with a 3.40 FIP and a very low walk rate.

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Minnesota
has great offensive numbers this season but they are coming off facing the
Orioles to inflate the numbers over the weekend. With three games the past two
days this could be a fatigued team in Houston but Jake Odorizzi has looked good
so far this season with a 3.15 FIP and a 11.1 K/9. His walk rate has been high
but he has also faced a tough set of four opponents.

This looks like an offensive showcase but Jose Altuve and Max Kepler could again be sitting out after both missed Sunday’s games and the oddsmakers have pushed this total to match the highest total in Houston this season despite the Athletics and Yankees visiting this season. Saturday’s 16-run outburst inflates the season numbers for the Twins who have scored four or fewer runs in nine of 19 games while Houston has scored four or fewer runs 13 times this season.

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Nelly’s
has turned in four straight profitable MLB seasons – we just started our 2019
season and will have daily updates through the World Series. The Full Season
subscription is $595.

Bobby
Dalton turned in a 5-1 MLB weekend and he is riding a 54-31 run in MLB Totals
since last season. Get a 10* Best Bet Total Monday night for $19.99.

Nelly’s
and Bobby Dalton have been featuring regular NBA Playoff updates as well. The 1st
round has been a mild disappointment after huge gains for both in the regular
season but there are plenty of winners ahead with two months remaining in the
playoffs. Dalton is back with a 10* for one of the big Game 4 matchups Monday.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#911/912 ‘OVER 9’ Arizona Diamondbacks (Godley) at Atlanta Braves (Gausman) 6:20 PM CT

Atlanta and Arizona have been middle-of-the-pack
performers in the NL so far this season but both offenses have impressed
sitting in MLB’s top 7 in team wOBA. Atlanta has drawn walks in 13 percent of
its plate appearances for the top rate in baseball while these teams have
combined to hit 50 home runs so far this season with Atlanta only 16 games into
the season and Arizona just 17 games into the season.

In its second season Sun Trust Park has been a higher scoring field with 9.8 runs per game on average and batters collectively posting an .811 OPS. There have been 29 home runs in 10 Atlanta home games so far this season and on the current home stand several quality starters have struggled including last year’s NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.

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These teams combined for 15 runs last night even with several missed opportunities with a combined 17 men left on base. 10 relievers pitched last night and the bullpen has been a sore spot on both sides with Arizona posting a 6.04 bullpen ERA and the Braves only slightly better a 5.43. The number has climbed to 9 but neither Zack Godley or Kevin Gausman can be counted on for a high end outing with Gausman looking like an early overachiever so far and Godley not resembling the future star Arizona thought they had when he emerged in the 2017 season.

Nelly’s finished the regular season hitting over 66% in the NBA and we are already 3-1 in the playoffs. Don’t miss tonight’s selection for only $15. We are also riding four straight profitable MLB seasons and will officially start our season on Friday.

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Bobby Dalton went 2-0 in baseball yesterday and 4-1 in 15* Best Bets last season on the diamond. His first 15* of the season is going tonight – $29.99 pay after you win.

Dalton has also hit 60% so far in the NBA playoffs and has a side & total package for Game 2 action tonight.