Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Oct. 7

Nelly’s is sitting out Tuesday MLB but Dalton has pick tonight looking to add to a 7-0 playoff run!

#903 Seattle Mariners (Gilbert) -135 over Detroit Tigers (Flaherty) 3:08 PM CT

Logan Gilbert had a 4.74 ERA in his road innings this season for an extreme contrast with his great results in Seattle. Gilbert did make a decent start in Detroit in July, allowing six hits and two runs in five-plus innings and he has strong career numbers over three starts at Comerica Park. There is weather in the area this afternoon as a delay or disruption seems possible but wind pushing out could help produce home runs and Seattle hit 40 more home runs than Detroit in the regular season. Jack Flaherty pitched better than his 8-15 record with a 4.64 ERA suggests this season, but he did battle walk and home run issues this season and he will be a home run risk in today’s conditions as he has developed into a severe flyball pitcher this season with the lowest groundball rate of his career. Flaherty famously started the decisive Game 5 of the World Series last season for a Dodgers victory, but he allowed four runs and got just four outs, and his career postseason ERA is 5.05, even with a decent outing in the wild card round in Cleveland. Flaherty had one start vs. Seattle in July, and he allowed two solo home runs in five innings of an eventual 8-4 Mariners win opposite Gilbert. Detroit was -108 in that game as there is a premium on Seattle this afternoon, but the late season trajectory of these teams painted quite a contrast while Seattle being able to grind out a win in Game 2 against Tarik Skubal provides a huge lift of momentum for the rest of this series after the tough extra-innings loss in Game 1. Detroit hasn’t had a home game since September 21, but the Tigers are 2-11 in the past 13 home games and have now been outscored 50-34 over eight games this season vs. the Mariners.