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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#634 Missouri +11.5 over Kentucky 8:00 PM CT

Kentucky asserted itself as a national contender with the 86-69 win over #1 Tennessee last weekend. This could be a dangerous sandwich game with Auburn next on the schedule. Kentucky has won the past five SEC road games but three of those wins came by slim margins while the Wildcats also lost its SEC road opener at Alabama.

At 3-9 Missouri hasn’t come close to matching some of the past recent success of the program but the Tigers haven’t lost by more than 10 points at home since the SEC opener with Tennessee. Missouri played the top rated Vols closely on the road earlier this month and in 12 SEC games the Tigers have only twice lost by more than 12 points. Missouri is a good 3-point shooting team and a good rebounding team and Kentucky’s strong SEC numbers have come through one of the lightest schedules in the league.

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Despite some big scores from Kentucky in recent weeks these are both very slow paced squads as a double-digit road favorite spread will feel even larger in this matchup. There is a letdown risk for the Wildcats off a monumental win and a very young team hasn’t proven it can handle success in the spotlight. Missouri beat Kentucky at home last season and only once in four trips to Columbia since Missouri joined the SEC have the Wildcats won by more than 10 points.

Nelly’s Basketball is 5-0 the past three days with five underdogs that have all won outright. Don’t miss Tuesday’s pick or join us for the rest of the month or our March Madness package to build on great season returns. We are 32 games above .500 since early December with a current 23-10 NBA run and a current 40-23 college run (through Feb. 18).

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#687 La Salle +7 over Saint Louis 4:00 PM CT

Through a difficult early season schedule La Salle started the season 0-10. A-10 play didn’t help the cause as the Explorers sat at 3-14 on the year in mid-January including 1-4 in league play. La Salle has suddenly won five of six however to turn a major corner including a nice win over Duquesne on Wednesday. La Salle has three road wins in conference play and will be looking to avenge a seven-point loss hosting Saint Louis in early January. After a tough start in that game the Explorers competed well to win the second half of that contest but ultimately shot just over 41 percent against a tough Billikens defense.

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Since starting 5-0 in A-10 play Saint Louis has lost five of the past seven games including two home losses. This is an abysmal free throw shooting team and thus a hard team to trust as a heavy favorite. Four of seven A-10 wins for Saint Louis have come by seven or fewer points and La Salle’s fast pace could give the Billikens problems with the underdog nearly five percent stronger in effective field goal rate in A-10 games.

La Salle is top 3-point shooting team in the conference and surprisingly La Salle sits a spot ahead of Saint Louis in the A-10 defensive efficiency rankings. These teams have played similarly weak conference schedules and ultimately the league numbers paint these squads as nearly identically rated squads despite the contrasting records and valuations as the underdog points are very appealing. Home teams have won just 55 percent of A-10 games for one of the weakest conference home court edges in the nation as well.

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Free NCAA Pick Thursday

#616 Connecticut +9.5 over Houston 6:00 PM CT

Houston owns a glowing 23-1 record and is in control of the AAC thanks to the 65-58 home win over Cincinnati on Sunday. That was a misleading final score as Cincinnati led at several points in the second half before ending the game with an over six-minute scoring drought while the Cougars caught several breaks with close calls including two questionable out-of-bounds calls where the near official was overruled. That was the biggest game of the AAC season and this could be a flat spot with Houston surviving several close calls on the road this season.

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Connecticut
is a shell of its past stature as a basketball power but the Huskies have won
four straight home dates and own an early season win over Syracuse. Despite the
marginal record Connecticut rates as an above average offensive team and should
be able to keep pace with the Cougars in this matchup. A big area of opportunity
is rebounding with the Huskies potentially towering over a small Houston team
in many lineup possibilities. Coming off back-to-back losses this is a great
opportunity for Connecticut as a heavy home underdog.

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Bobby Dalton is 11-3 the past 8 days in basketball after a 3-0 Wednesday. A rare 15* Best Bet is posted for Thursday’s schedule – $34.99 pay after you win!

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E is 3-0 the past two days and has 20* picks planned for Friday & Saturday
this week!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#724 Northern Kentucky -9.5 over Oakland 6:00 PM CT

Northern Kentucky has a one-game lead over Wright State in the Horizon standings with Oakland two games back. This is a critical home game for the Norse after losing by two at Oakland in early January and knowing they head to Dayton next Friday. Northern Kentucky is 6-0 at home in Horizon play and 14-0 at home on the season. The average margin of victory for the Norse has been 17 points at home in league play while Oakland is drawing a second straight road game after a double-digit loss at Wright State on Thursday night.

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Oakland actually led that game early before getting outscored by 20 points in the second half and a highly vulnerable Grizzlies defense will face the top Horizon offense in this contest. Northern Kentucky also features the top 3-point shooting numbers on both offense and defense in Horizon play and Oakland has been turnover prone this season. After losing the past two meetings in this series including losing in Highland Heights last season in this matchup this is a huge game on the schedule for the host. Seven Northern Kentucky conference wins have come by 15 or more points and the Norse are capable of pouring it on against one of the worst defensive teams in the nation.

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#863 Georgia State +1 over Louisiana-Lafayette 8:00 PM CT

Louisiana has dropped three in a row with an eye-popping 303 points allowed as this has been one of the nation’s worst defensive teams, unable to hold up to balance the up-tempo offense for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Louisiana lost by 13 on the road in this matchup and Georgia State is one of three teams currently tied for the Sun Belt lead. Facing Louisiana should provide a boost for the Georgia State offense with D’Marcus Simonds the top player in the league and the Panthers rated as one of the top defensive teams in the conference.

Coming off a shocking loss Wednesday at Louisiana-Monroe should leave a motivated squad for this road test with the Panthers posting seven road or neutral site wins this season. Georgia State has defeated Georgia and Alabama away from home this season while winning at UT Arlington and at Texas State for quality road wins in league play.

The key in this game will be 3-point shooting between a pair of teams that take a lot of long range shots. Georgia State has featured the best Sun Belt defense beyond the arc allowing below 29 percent while in contrast Louisiana has allowed nearly 41 percent from 3-point range. A Georgia State squad that gets over 45 percent of its points from the 3-point line and is hitting over 39 percent on 3-point shots could have a huge day in a high possession game with the Ragin’ Cajuns.

Nelly’s Basketball is 59-30 since December 6 and we are 18-5-1 the past eight Saturdays! Don’t miss Saturday’s 2/3 guarantee for $25, posted by 10 AM CT Saturday morning.

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#636 Kansas State -3 over Kansas 8:00 PM CT

Kansas picked up a dominant home win over Texas Tech on Saturday to break a 2-game slide but the Jayhawks have lost five of six road games this season with only a narrow win at Baylor in early January. This is always a huge game for Kansas State and this year’s Wildcats team has what it takes to break an eight-game slide in this series including losing all three meetings last season. Kansas State battled injuries and offensive inconsistency early in the season but has turned a corner for a 6-0 Big XII run to sit ahead of its rival in the current standings.

Kansas State has only one home loss all season while besting TCU and Texas Tech by double-digits in the past two home games, holding those teams to just 100 points combined. Kansas State has significant defensive edges in this matchup and should negate the ability to score inside for the Jayhawks. Kansas has also been the Big XII worst free throw shooting team which should be a negative factor for the road team in a potentially close game.

This year’s Kansas team has battled turnovers and Kansas State is one of top teams nationally at creating turnovers on defense and the Wildcats are underrated having played part of the season without star Center Dean Wade. Kansas might still also be without starter Marcus Garrett who missed the last game after already losing Udoka Azubuike earlier this season as this isn’t the team Bill Self expected to have coming back after last season’s Final Four run. The line swinging four points from its release pushes this selection down to a Free Pick level however.

Nelly’s Basketball is 56-28 since Dec. 6, winning two thirds of our selections over the past two months. We had a dominant win from a NBA underdog last night to reach a 21-9 on current NBA run along with a 29-15 college run. We had a huge 31-13 February in 2018 and are ready for another big month – join us for all remaining February picks for $229!

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Free NBA Pick Wednesday

#553 Chicago Bulls +10.5 over Miami Heat 6:35 PM CT

The Heat are well rested and coming off back-to-back wins but those wins came by single-digits vs. arguably the two worst teams in the NBA. Miami is back at home after playing six of the past seven games on the road and this is a team with a stunning 11-13 S/U record at home. Miami would make the playoffs today at 24-24 but this squad is barely positive in average scoring differential and over the past 12 games Miami has just two wins by double-digit margins. One of those wins came in Chicago with a 14-point result but that game came following back-to-back losses for a desperate spot for the team and it was also likely Dwyane Wade’s last trip to Chicago.

This turnaround spot back at home won’t provide the same motivation especially with Oklahoma City visiting South Beach on Friday. Chicago has only 11 wins on the season but the Bulls have more road wins than home wins and Chicago has quietly played competitive ball in the past week with a 1-4 run that has featured only one loss by more than five points. Chicago has covered in four of the past six meetings between these teams including the past two road visits to Miami and the Heat are 4-7 ATS hosting losing teams this season.

Miami has only been this big of a favorite once this season and Miami is a losing ATS team overall at home while the Bulls are a .500 ATS road squad often catching big prices. Chicago played tough in Brooklyn last night and playing in a third game in four days increases this spread even further. Chicago has allowed only 108 points per game over the past five games for improved defense while in contrast the Heat are allowing 46 percent shooting in that span, well above the team’s season pace. The recent loss of Derrick Jones is an underrated loss for the Heat and Miami simply shouldn’t be trusted at this price.

Nelly’s Basketball is on a 51-23 run since December 6 including riding a current 20-8 run in the NBA plus a 25-11 run in college basketball (through Jan. 29). We have hit 100% on Top Plays and have gone 17-3-1 in our Saturday 2/3 offers the past seven weeks. Get a rare 2/3 offer Wednesday night in college basketball with a 2* Top Play for $35 or get tonight’s 2* pick guaranteed to win for $25. For the best value join us for all picks through February 28 for $229 – our basketball service went 31-13 in February 2018 and we have won in 11 of the past 14 months of February!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#685 Rutgers +7 over Penn State 3:30 PM CT

With wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, Rutgers has made some noise in the Big Ten and at 9-9 overall this season the Knights are a threat to finish strong with a few more upsets along the way. Rutgers has lost five road games in a row but did win at Miami earlier in the season and should play better off a big win than they did in the 18-point loss at Minnesota that followed the win over the Buckeyes.

Penn
State is a better team than the 0-8 Big Ten record represents with numerous
close losses. A breakout performance could be expected by laying a big number
with the Lions carries great risk. Penn State has struggled offensively all
season and rates as the least efficient offensive team in the Big Ten. In conference
play Penn State has shot 27 percent from 3-point range, 47 percent from 2-point
range, and 60 percent from the line.  

Nelly’s Basketball is on a 48-20 run since Dec. 6 and we have won six straight Saturday 2/3 offers with those picks a combined 16-2! Get Saturday’s 2/3 Guarantee today for just $25!

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Free NCAA Pick Sunday

#824 George Washington +3 over Duquesne 3:00 PM CT

George Washington owns terrible offensive numbers in a 6-11 start to the season but the Colonials have posted a 2-2 A-10 record, even with losses in both home games. Those contests came with a tight loss vs. Dayton, perhaps the top team in the conference, and then a 20-point loss to Richmond for a great contrast. The overall season numbers are a bit deflated taking November losses to Virginia and Michigan and ultimately the team has capable defensive numbers while avoiding turnovers.

Duquesne sits at 12-5 overall and with a 3-1 conference record but the gap between these teams doesn’t look significant despite the contrasting records. The three A-10 wins for the Dukes have come by a combined total of 12 points while three quarters of the team’s wins have come outside the nation’s top 200. The Dukes take a great deal of 3-point shots while hitting at just over 32 percent and Duquesne has struggled with turnovers on offense. This will be a second straight road game for the Dukes after winning in Richmond on Wednesday and a big contest with Saint Louis is on deck on the schedule with the Billikens the current leader in the conference. There isn’t a single upperclassman in the current Duquesne rotation and this is the first time all season the young team has drawn consecutive road games, with Wednesday’s win the first true road win of the season. After a 2-point home loss in this matchup in the last meeting between these teams George Washington should be motivated and this is a team that could start to perform better in the coming weeks after facing a transition with Illinois transfer DJ Williams taking over a big role and the team losing Arnaldo Toro to injury early in the season.

Nelly’s Basketball went 3-0 on Saturday, now 16-2 in the past six Saturdays and on a 45-16 run since December 6 for incredible returns. Join us for the rest of January for $129 or check out daily offers!

Nelly’s is on a 24-15 NFL run and we also have a championship pick posted for Sunday. Point Train has posted a 7-unit NFL Playoff Game of the Year this weekend as well!

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#790 Vanderbilt -3.5 over South Carolina 6:00 PM CT

Bryce Drew’s Vanderbilt squad has slipped to 0-3 in SEC play after a promising 9-3 non-conference start that included wins over USC, Liberty, and Arizona State for three top 100 wins. Only two losses have come at home this season and both were close games while the two losses in the last week came on the road, including a nine-point loss at Kentucky last weekend. These teams met just once last season with the Gamecocks winning 71-60 in Columbia just over a year ago while Drew’s squad won by nine in the only home meeting he had in this series since taking over the program two years ago.

Frank Martin’s squad is surprisingly 3-0 in SEC play after a 5-7 non-conference start. Known for defense, the Gamecocks have pushed the pace of play this season but not with better results as this has been a high turnover team that shoots poorly from long range. The 3-0 start has featured some good fortune in SEC play with a two-point win at Florida despite committing 22 turnovers, plus an overtime home win over Mississippi State. On Sunday South Carolina beat Missouri by 10 but that was a challenging situation for the Tigers as that game originally was scheduled for Saturday but moved to Sunday as Missouri dealt with a major winter storm and travel issues.

South Carolina is just 1-2 in true road games including losing at Wyoming this season and the Gamecocks also have a home loss to Stony Brook for two puzzling defeats. The past three wins are the only top 100 wins of the season for South Carolina and this is an absolutely critical spot on the schedule for the Commodores as a loss here could easily mean a potential 0-7 start to SEC play playing Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the next three conference games. Vanderbilt is young but possesses great size and has battled a tougher SEC schedule to this point to create the contrasting records. Vanderbilt has featured great 3-point defense numbers and efficient interior scoring while far less prone to turnovers as home court should hold Wednesday night.

Nelly’s Basketball is on a 41-13 run since December 6 for huge returns in basketball! We are expecting a 2* Top Play for Wednesday night – $25 pay after you win!

Bobby Dalton has won 8 of his last 10 Best Bets and has an American 10* Best Bet for Wednesday night – $19.99 pay after you win!