Free Pick | MLB | Monday | July 6

Nelly’s had a top play win yesterday in MLB action!

We’ve won in July baseball three straight seasons.

#902 Atlanta Braves (Lopez) -125 over New York Mets (Peralta) 6:15 PM CT

The Braves scored nine runs yesterday, but it wasn’t enough after a wild ninth inning with 11 combined runs between these NL East rivals. Both teams used five pitchers on Sunday, heading into the fourth game of this series with Atlanta winning Friday and Saturday. Over the past five games vs. right-handed pitching the Braves have scored 8.4 runs per nine compared to only 3.6 runs per nine for the Mets. Both bullpens have shaky recent splits after Sunday’s fiasco, but the Mets enter this game with a 10.59 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in the past five games from the bullpen. New York had failed to top three runs in five straight games on this road trip before yesterday’s outburst and in that game the Mets hit .714 with runners in scoring position. Atlanta has scored at least five runs in five consecutive games as this is an elite offense that is recovered from a bit of flat spell in late June. Freddy Peralta has been a disappointing acquisition for the Mets with a 4.81 ERA and a big decline in his strikeout rate from his time in Milwaukee. In his last eight starts Peralta has a 6.80 ERA to erase a solid first two months of the season and as a Met, his ERA is 6.06 on the road. Reynaldo Lopez has been a utility pitcher for Atlanta, but he has pitched well in back-to-back starting efforts after mostly pitching in relief this season. Lopez has a 3.19 ERA in his home innings, and he should lead a Braves team that is 27-17 at home facing a Mets team that is just 18-29 on the road to a good opportunity to win this four-game series.