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Free MLB Pick Thursday

#913/914 ‘UNDER 9’ Cleveland Indians (Bieber) at Texas Rangers (Minor) 1:05 PM CT

After dazzling in several starts late last season Shane Bieber carried high expectations in 2019 and that weight has grown with the injuries in the rotation for the Indians. Bieber has a decent 3.92 ERA but with a 3.30 xFIP and an amazing 11.4 K/9 this is clearly one of the AL’s very best starting pitchers. Bieber has allowed five or more runs three times in his last seven starts but his home and road splits are similar and he has also had eight starts this season in which he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. Mike Minor has overachieved with a 2.63 ERA next to a 4.02 xFIP but the strikeout numbers are there and Minor continues to provide reliable outcomes for the surprising Rangers. In each of his last 10 starts he has pitched at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed and he has allowed an average of barely over one home run per nine innings, no small feat in Arlington. Minor has thrived at home with a 2.18 ERA and he has equally impressive splits vs. right-handers and left-handers. Cleveland has put up big numbers the past two days in this series but they got 10 runs last night on only 12 hits, fortunate to earn seven two-out RBI. It will be warm in Arlington with conditions that can favor offense but these are two elite AL starters and on an early start getaway game the number could be kept in check.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Washington Nationals (Fedde) -100 over San Diego Padres (Margevicius) 9:10 PM CT

Nick Margevicius was a compelling early-season story making the jump from AA to the San Diego rotation. The early returns were promising but his ERA is 7.24 the past six starts and his last outing after getting sent down for a tune-up start was among his worst of the season. Washington has been a big disappointment but the Nationals have been very good against left-handed pitching with an .851 team OPS. The Nationals have averaged 6.0 runs per game the past two weeks and quietly this team has gone 9-3 the past 12 games, scoring at least three runs in 12 of the past 13 games. In a small sample Erick Fedde has suspicious numbers with a 2.55 ERA but a 5.23 xFIP. The strikeouts haven’t been there for Fedde but he is a high-end prospect as a 2014 1st rounder and he had a 8.2 K/9 in just over 50 innings last year with Washington while posting a 9.4 K/9 in AAA last season. Fedde has made just three starts but he has allowed only three earned runs in 14 innings as a starter. San Diego continues to compete well but the Padres remain one of baseball’s worst hitting teams with a season OPS of just .713. San Diego is just 4-7 the past 11 games, topping five runs in only two of those games. Despite being six games below .500 while San Diego is above .500 Washington has the superior scoring differential on the season and projects as the superior team in the long run, and San Diego has a losing record at Petco Park.

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Nelly’s hit an AL underdog last night and we have an AL 2-for-1 offer tonight for only $15. We also look to win in the NBA to build on a 3-0 start in the NBA Finals and huge profits in the 2018-19 basketball season.

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Free MLB Pick Friday

#961 Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) -125 over San Francisco Giants (Pomeranz) 9:15 PM CT

Arizona had a pair of tough-luck losses vs. lefties in San Diego earlier this week but the Diamondbacks have nine wins vs. southpaw starters this season, tying for the most in the NL while a season OPS of .825 vs. left-handed pitching is also an elite figure that trails only a few teams in baseball. Mired in five straight losses, yesterday’s off-day should help the team re-group while they get to face a demoralized Giants team that lost in 13 innings in a game the Giants led most of the way Thursday afternoon. A strong start from Madison Bumgarner and a lot of bullpen innings were wasted in a loss that will make this Friday night game a difficult turnaround contest.

The Giants are 9-10 in May but -26 in scoring as a short-term surge early in the month appears to have been a mirage. San Francisco has very poor offensive numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a season OPS of just .619, posting only 11 home runs in 626 plate appearances while the Giants are 6-10 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Robbie Ray remains one of the top strikeout producers in baseball and after an injury-plagued 2018, he appears to be back in his 2017 form, posting a 11.5 K/9 with a 3.25 ERA. Ray has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts and he pitched well vs. the Giants last week.

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San Francisco has a great bullpen but six key relievers were used yesterday for double-digit pitch counts and Drew Pomeranz will be hard to count on for a long outing. Pomeranz owns a 5.66 ERA this season and once in eight starts has completed six innings. He has a 4.6 BB/9 and his numbers don’t improve much at AT&T Park. Right-handed batters have hit .292 vs. Pomeranz this season and Arizona can generally feature a lineup with eight right-handed hitters. These teams are only a few games apart in the standings but are 75 runs apart in scoring differential and the losing streak puts Arizona at a very reasonable price in a favorable matchup and situation Friday.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#951 Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) -115 over Cincinnati Reds (Roark) 5:40 PM CT

With a pessimistic Pecota projection and some off-season uncertainty the Cubs started slowly in 2019 but now halfway through May, Chicago has the NL’s best record at 24-14, going 21-6 since April 11. The Cubs have won seven of the past eight road games and the lineup is crushing right-handed pitching with an .807 season OPS. Tanner Roark has posted good numbers for the Reds with a 3.27 ERA but a 4.80 xFIP hovers over his season line. While he has an 8.1 K/9 he also had a 4.1 BB/9 and Roark has benefitted from facing some of the NL’s lesser offensive teams this season.

Kyle Hendricks might be on pace to have a season that resembles his great 2016 campaign. While he has just two wins so far, his ERA is 3.19 and he has walked just eight batters in over 42 innings of work. He has an elevated BABIP and only a 65 percent strand rate as he is poised to improve his numbers in the coming weeks. His road splits present a great contrast to his 0.62 Wrigley Field ERA but his road starts have been exclusively against NL contenders and two of those outings were his first two starts of the season. Cincinnati has hit left-handed pitching quite well this season but with a .667 team OPS, this is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB vs. right-handed pitching. The Reds have outscored foes by 20 runs so far in May but are just 6-6, underscoring the recent issues of the bullpen with Cincinnati 1-4 in extra-innings games and 6-13 in one-run games this season.

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20-runs in season scoring differential came exclusively in  sweeping a three-game set with the lowly Marlins however and against two other elite NL squads the Reds have gone 0-6 facing the Dodgers and Brewers. On the road this season the Cubs have scored 7.0 runs per game while batting .283 vs. right-handers while the Reds have hit just .218 vs. right-handers at home this season. Even if Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist remain out this is a reasonable price to support the NL’s top team and a pitcher that is capable of being one of the best in the league.

Nelly’s Baseball has a 2/3 offer for Tuesday MLB action for $25 – our biggest card of the season so far! Bobby Dalton has won six of his last eight interleague picks and is featuring a 10* Best Bet tonight in his Trips-2-Win 2/3 for $29.99.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#965/966 ‘UNDER 9.5’ Minnesota Twins (Odorizzi) at Houston Astros (Peacock) 7:10 PM CT

There
were 21 runs scored in Houston’s 11-10 loss to the Rangers but there were only
21 hits in that game for a bizarre scoring barrage led by seven home runs.
Houston only had one hit with runners in scoring position in that game despite
posting 10 runs and they only had five at-bats with runners in scoring position
as the game proved to be an extreme outlier in scoring efficiency.

While Collin McHugh had a disastrous start Sunday he managed to record 10 outs and allowed Houston to only use three relievers with Will Harris and Ryan Pressly pitching minimally enough that they should still be available today with both of those relievers still clocking 0.00 ERAs on the season. The Houston bullpen has been outstanding this season but Brad Peacock has been very sharp in 16 innings of work for the Astros with a 3.40 FIP and a very low walk rate.

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Minnesota
has great offensive numbers this season but they are coming off facing the
Orioles to inflate the numbers over the weekend. With three games the past two
days this could be a fatigued team in Houston but Jake Odorizzi has looked good
so far this season with a 3.15 FIP and a 11.1 K/9. His walk rate has been high
but he has also faced a tough set of four opponents.

This looks like an offensive showcase but Jose Altuve and Max Kepler could again be sitting out after both missed Sunday’s games and the oddsmakers have pushed this total to match the highest total in Houston this season despite the Athletics and Yankees visiting this season. Saturday’s 16-run outburst inflates the season numbers for the Twins who have scored four or fewer runs in nine of 19 games while Houston has scored four or fewer runs 13 times this season.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#959 San Diego Padres (Lauer) +115 over San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) 8:45 PM CT

Madison Bumgarner remains a popular big-name starter for the Giants but the 2014 World Series hero has a 10-18 record in his decisions since the start of the 2017 season. He owns a 1.38 ERA this season but with a 3.68 FIP and his FIP was well higher than his 3.26 ERA last season. There wasn’t a big difference between the Giants and the Padres last season at the bottom of the NL West with San Diego featuring a worse record but scoring 14 more runs in the 2018 season. The Giants appear to be headed for a similar fate in 2019 with a 3-7 start and only 25 runs scored in 10 games.

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San Diego had a splashy off-season and is going with young unproven arms in the rotation but the Padres are 6-4 to start the season including a series win in St. Louis last weekend. San Diego won three of four hosting the Giants to start the season and the underdog price late Monday night is appealing. Eric Lauer lacks Bumgarner’s career credentials but the left-hander is a former 1st round pick. His numbers have been marginal in two starts this season but he has allowed just four runs in 11 innings and has displayed excellent command. The Giants have also scored just 1.9 runs per nine vs. left-handers this season compared to 5.8 for the Padres.

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Free NCAA Pick Sunday

#873 UC-Irvine +5 over Oregon 8:40 PM CT

Often times when smaller conference squads pull off a Round of 64 upset they are fade material in the following game. UC-Irvine doesn’t fit that mold however as the Big West champions now have 31 wins and haven’t lost since mid-January. The Anteaters were also a very small underdog against the Big XII co-champion Kansas State on Friday and will actually be an even bigger underdog against Pac-12 Tournament champion Oregon Sunday.

Getting a shot at a Pac-12 squad on this stage is very alluring for one of the top defensive teams in the nation, featuring the #5 effective field goal rate defensively nationally, and #1 nationally from 2-point range. That is an ideal trait taking on a Ducks offense that is limited and has minimal 3-point shooting potential. This young Ducks team has momentum with nine straight wins but there is not much quality on that late season run in a very weak Pac-12. Oregon is now in a sixth game in 12 days and there could be a bit of a letdown after Friday’s big win over Wisconsin.

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The Badgers had posted two recent NCAA Tournament wins vs. Oregon and the 18-point final margin was very misleading. Oregon shot 47 percent on 3-point shots while Wisconsin shot 20 percent on 30 3-point attempts. Oregon was crushed on the offensive glass against Wisconsin but was better at the line and had fewer turnovers to pull away. The Ducks won’t have the advantage of being the west coast team in this west coast venue this time and Irvine will be more than comfortable at Oregon’s deliberate pace. Oregon’s front-line won’t have the same success in this matchup and Payton Pritchard had seven turnovers on Friday as really the only backcourt ball handler on the Ducks, he will be liable for more mistakes against a fierce set of perimeter defenders for the Anteaters.

Nelly’s won our 2/3 offer Saturday, now 30-16 in March and 31-13-1 the past 15 Saturdays while on a 30-15 run in NCAA Tournament picks since 2017. We’ve hit 80% on 2* Top Plays this season – get Sunday’s guaranteed 2* for $25 for the Round of 32!

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Big E is 9-5 in the Big Dance and 13-7 in his past 20 picks. Sunday’s 4 x 4 offer is available for $24.94 or get individual Biggie plays for $9.94 each.

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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#828 Kansas State -4 over UC-Irvine 1:00 PM CT

There is great focus on the absence of Dean Wade but the Kansas State forward missed eight games this season and played just eight minutes on last season’s Elite Eight run for the Wildcats. The return of Cartier Diarra provides an off-setting boost with Diarra putting up 23 points in two Big XII tournament games after missing the second half of the conference season. Kansas State has some of the absolute best defensive numbers in the nation and this will be a difficult draw for UC-Irvine, a team with just two top 100 wins all season long. One of those wins was at Saint Mary’s but the Anteaters also lost by 24 hosting Utah State and lost by 17 at Butler for the closest comparables.

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The Big West rated as the 19th best conference last year but tournament representative Cal-State Fullerton lost by 26 to Purdue in the tournament last season while regular season champion Cal-Davis lost by 10 against Utah in the NIT. Irvine was clearly the top Big West team going 18-1 but the conference rated 24th this season. Underdogs draw more attention than usual in March and Irvine is an appealing squad with a great record but the Big West champion being a slight underdog vs. the Big XII champion is a rare price. Kansas State was similarly priced vs. a TCU team that needed to win last week in the Big XII tournament in Kansas City. Kansas State was a 14-point favorite when these teams met in November 2017, a 22-point win for the Wildcats. Much is being made of the strong defensive numbers for Irvine but Kansas State is comfortable at a slow pace and has the far superior defensive resume. Size and experience will still be edges for the Wildcats even with Wade out of action.

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Nelly’s
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Free NCAA Pick Friday

#797 Wichita State +2 over Temple 8:30 PM CT

Regarded as one of the top coaches in the country Gregg Marshall has endured a disappointing season at Wichita State and barring a great run in Memphis the Shockers will be out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011, when they won the NIT. This year’s team started 1-6 in AAC play but has rallied to win nine of the final 11 conference games and took out East Carolina in tournament action yesterday. The draw with Temple is a difficult one and the Owls won in Wichita in an 85-81 overtime result in early January. Temple is a definitive NCAA Tournament bubble team with a high-end win over Houston but not much else and four overtime wins boost the win count for the 23-8 Owls but only five wins this season have been top 100 results. Wichita State beat Providence and Baylor early in the season taking on a very difficult non-conference slate and the Shockers are still capable of clamping down defensively. Wichita State takes great care of the ball as Temple won’t get its usual filling of turnovers and the Owls can struggle on the glass at times. Temple is 8-2 in the past 10 games but they didn’t face either of the top two AAC teams in that stretch and the big regular season finale win over UCF came in a favorable spot after the Knights had defeated Houston and Cincinnati in consecutive games.

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Nelly’s
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Friday night!

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Free NCAA Pick Wednesday

#657 Vanderbilt +3.5 over Texas A&M 8:30 PM CT

Vanderbilt completed a stunning 0-18 SEC season losing against short-handed LSU last weekend. The Commodores are still looking for their first win of 2019 yet will be just a small underdog playing close to home in the opening round of the SEC tournament. Texas A&M has six top 100 wins this season including a stunning win over Kansas State. The Aggies beat Vanderbilt by seven at home in early March and finished the SEC season on a decent run with wins in five of the final nine. TJ Starks is out of the lineup with a shoulder injury however as the Aggies are without their top player, though Starks did not play in the win in this matchup less than two weeks ago.

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That was an ugly game with both teams struggling offensively and the Aggies had nearly twice as many free throw attempts while Vanderbilt shot just over 16 percent from 3-point range. In the conference numbers these teams aren’t that far apart statistically despite the contrasting win counts. Vanderbilt played the #1 toughest SEC conference schedule on the season while the Aggies had a much lighter path playing Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee just once each. Vanderbilt played both SEC super powers Kentucky and Tennessee twice each while also doubling up on Florida. Billy Kennedy’s team has been one-and-done the past two years and Bryce Drew will have his team ready to try to find some life in an otherwise lost season with a chance to get a win in Nashville. Kennedy also recently announced that he is resigning after the SEC Tournament, leaving the team with a lot of uncertainty heading into tonight’s game.

Nelly’s won our daytime pick on Wednesday and we are 15-6 so far in March basketball while 40 games over .500 since December 6 with our basketball service. Sign up now for all of March Madness with a 24-12 NCAA Tournament record the past two years! Don’t miss a 2-for-1 offer tonight for only $15!

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Bobby Dalton has FOUR picks in Wednesday’s QUAD Conference Tournament offer including a Best Bet! Dalton hit a 10* last night and is off to an amazing 19-8 start to the month of March! Get on board for a late night pick if you miss the day games!

Big E is 11-8 so far in March and will have 10* Biggies daily for championship week!