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Green Sheet Issue #2

Our second Green Sheet issue dives into the 2019 NFL schedule with nearly 3,000 words of analysis plus schedule numbers and rankings in seven categories for all 32 NFL teams.

Find out great nuggets from the schedule analysis: One team has a 30-44 S/U since 2000 scenario on the schedule and that squad is likely to be a favorite in that game. Three teams fall into a win total valuation situation that is 4-1 the past two years including pegging major collapses from the Jaguars and 49ers last season – teams that fell short of the summer win total numbers by 4.5 games! There is one team that fits a scheduling role that has produced teams combining to go 56-39-1 the past two years. Another simple schedule formula has produced the ‘over’ in five of six win totals the past two seasons and four squads apply in 2019. Find out those teams and more in Green Sheet Issue #2.

This is just a four-page issue and as such is only $6 instead of the regular $12 price – sign up right here!

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2019-20 Green Sheet #1

We have released a short off-season issue of the Green Sheet that includes the 2019 NFL Schedule Grid plus a coaching reference sheet to hang on to for the upcoming NFL season.

If you are not already signed up for the Green Sheet now is a great time to get on board as we plan to have several more off-season issues before the weekly subscription begins in late July.

Check out the first issue here – and save $10 on the full season subscription if you sign-up by May 10 using the COUPON CODE: MAY10

A $150 savings on the Nelly’s Full Season Phone Service for the 2019-20 football season expires on May 1 and a $100 discount will expire on June 1 – the phone service includes the full Green Sheet subscription as well.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#309/310 OVER 41.5 Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins 3:25 PM CT

It is easy to buy into the Nick Foles storyline with the Eagles posting a pair of huge wins the last two weeks to climb back to the edge of the NFC Playoffs. Philadelphia needs Minnesota to lose at home this week vs. a mildly interested Bears team that will likely have to host the Vikings next week as the chances for the Eagles aren’t favorable. Philadelphia has also been out-gained by a combined total of more than 400 yards over the past six weeks despite somehow being 4-2 in that span as the defense has been deteriorated with injuries and hasn’t come close to matching the results of last season’s championship unit.

One of the wins came hosting Washington on Monday night in Week 13 but that 15-point win was very misleading as it was a one-point game in the fourth quarter and Washington had to play most of the contest with a woefully ineffective Mark Sanchez. Washington’s playoff hopes were extinguished last week but under Josh Johnson the Redskins played two very competitive road games vs. tough defenses, out-gaining both Jacksonville and Tennessee for some success against quality defenses.

Washington beat the Jaguars and were right in last week’s game with a Titans team that had a lot on the line. Washington should continue to give a good effort as a divisional home underdog. Both teams have arguably made quarterback upgrades since the meeting four weeks ago and yet this total is even lower than that game and is set to the be the lowest total in this series since 2009.

Nelly’s is on a 20-11 run in NFL action since Week 7 and we have a huge NFL play Sunday with our 3* NFL Game of the Year – get the pick for $50 pay after you win or get it as part of our NFL 2/3 for $55.

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Dalton’s NFL Picks are coming soon and the Big Dog expects Bowl 15* plays Monday and Tuesday! He is plus nearly 30* in bowl action so far!

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NFL Close Calls – Week 14

NFL Close Calls – Week 14

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most
games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the
spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 14 of the NFL regular season
with one of the wilder NFL Sundays in recent memory.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6½)
27, Baltimore Ravens 24 (49):
The
AFC-leading Chiefs led by seven at halftime with a spread that slipped from -7½
to -6 or -6½ by kickoff. Baltimore tied the game late in the third quarter following
a Patrick Mahomes interception. A big punt return put the Ravens in position
for the upset and with just over four minutes to go Lamar Jackson found John
Brown to give the underdog Ravens a seven-point edge. Mahomes cemented his MVP
case with a great drive that included a pair of 4th down conversions, the
second of which resulted in the game-tying touchdown in the final minute. That
score also put the scoring at 48 on a total that reached as high as 53 before
settling at 51 and dropping to 49 by kickoff. The Ravens had some time on the
clock but disaster struck as a sack led to a fumble and the Chiefs had the ball
in field goal range. Harrison Butker would miss from 43 yards at time expired
however. Kansas City had the ball first and survived a fumble inside the red
zone, ultimately giving Butker another opportunity and he was good from 35
yards. Baltimore crossed midfield but went backwards with a penalty and a sack
that saw Jackson exit the game. Robert Griffin III entered and made a good
throw on 4th-and-22 but Willie Snead couldn’t come up with it to extend the
game. Baltimore still cashed underdog tickets and there were likely mixed
results on the total.

Cleveland Browns (+1) 26,
Carolina Panthers 20 (48):
The scoring pace in this
game was hot early with a 17-17 halftime score as the Panthers and Browns
traded scores. Cleveland fumbled on its first play of the second half but Carolina
didn’t take advantage of the field position to add points and only later in the
frame added a field goal to lead by three as slight road favorite entering the fourth
quarter. Early in the fourth Nick Chubb put the Browns in front but the PAT was
missed for just a three-point edge. Cleveland added a field goal a few minutes
later but up by just six, all results were still in play. Carolina reached 1st-and-goal
with about four minutes remaining but Cam Newton’s eventual 4th down throw
sailed high. The Panthers would get another shot but Newton threw an
interception on 1st down with a minute to go as the Browns and the ‘under’ held
on.

Green Bay Packers (-4)
34, Atlanta Falcons 20 (50½):
Despite only
managing 300 total yards in the game the Packers pulled away with a 34-7 lead
late in the third quarter. Atlanta scored early in the fourth to put the total
scoring at 48, just below the closing total. The Falcons reached the Green Bay
8-yard-line with about seven minutes remaining but a fumble kept points off the
board. In the final minutes Atlanta kept a meaningless drive going with a 4th
down conversion and then with 14 seconds to go hit a 19-yard touchdown pass on
another 4th down play to bail out those on the ‘over’.

New Orleans Saints (-9½)
28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 (55½):
The
Buccaneers led 14-3 at the half as they looked to sweep the season series with
the Saints. The game seemed to swing on a blocked punt late in the third
quarter as New Orleans got back in the game with a short-field touchdown. Early
in the fourth New Orleans scored on 4th-and-goal with a Drew Brees reach to put
New Orleans up by four and suddenly the hefty underdog cover was in danger for
the home team. Another 3-and-out gave the Saints the ball back in good field position
and New Orleans again scored to make the margin 11 points. The Buccaneers again
had to punt and the Saints added a field goal to lead by 14 with just over a minute
to go. A touchdown would still put the Buccaneers in position to cover however
and Tampa Bay reached the New Orleans 26-yard-line in the final seconds before
a holding call and an eventual interception in the end zone.

New York Jets (+4½) 27,
Buffalo Bills 23 (37):
The Bills led 20-13 early
in the third quarter after a short field goal after the Jets fumbled on the
halftime kickoff. The Bills didn’t add points after another Jets turnover and
then early in the fourth New York managed to tie the game. Buffalo missed a
field goal on its next possession but after forcing a quick punt managed three
points after a 62-yard drive, leading by three with just over two minutes to go
on a spread that sat at -3½ before reaching -4 or -4½. Sam Darnold led a great
late drive with the Jets rushing into the end zone on 4th-and-goal to take the
lead for the first time in the game. Josh Allen would get intercepted to end
the game for the Bills.

Miami Dolphins (+9) 34,
New England Patriots 33 (50½):
The Patriots
led 30-28 late in the fourth quarter but couldn’t quite burn off the remaining
clock and didn’t find the end zone, ultimately kicking a 22-yard field goal
with 16 seconds remaining to lead by five when a touchdown could have put New
England by nine on a spread that bounced around between -7 and -9. The Dolphins
returned the kickoff to the 31 and had one play left, it turned out to be a
play that will be remembered for a long time as a two laterals after a Ryan
Tannehill completion left Kenyan Drake with room to maneuver, eventually going
the distance for a 69-yard game-winning score.

Los Angeles Chargers (-16½)
26, Cincinnati Bengals 21 (48):
The Bengals
were never out of position to cover the massive underdog spread in this game
but their late bid to tie the game had a huge impact on the total. The ‘under’
felt safe with just 32 points into the fourth quarter and matching field goals
didn’t change that trajectory. Cincinnati would complete a touchdown drive just
after the two-minute warning and lined up for a two-point conversion that would
have tied the game. The attempt was not a success as the Chargers led 23-21 and
the total sat just ‘under’. After holding the on-side kick attempt the Chargers
added a late field goal to secure the win and put the scoring at 46, just below
the closing figure of 48 after an opener at 47.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) 29,
Philadelphia Eagles 23 (45):
Eagles backers
had a right to be fuming early in Sunday’s big afternoon showcase game in the
NFC East with a Dallas fumble on the opening kickoff handed back to the Cowboys
on a simply unimaginable replay review decision. From there just 15 points were
scored through three quarters and the underdog Eagles tied the game at just 9-9
early in the fourth quarter. These rivals scored four touchdowns in the final
eight minutes for a 23-23 tie to incredibly hit the ‘over’ when the ‘under’
appeared to be in a very safe position most of the way. Dallas was in position
to have a game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation but had a
fumble and then a sack to cost the team 15 yards. In overtime Dallas again
appeared to stall in field goal range but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 from
the 19-yard-line rather than kicking a relatively sure field goal. The Cowboys
got the conversion and then on 3rd-and-8 connected for a game-winning and
spread-covering touchdown on a lucky bounce as a deflected pass wound up in
Amari Cooper’s hands.

Oakland Raiders (+10) 24,
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 (51):
The heavy underdog
Raiders came to play in this old rivalry as the double-digit underdog was in
position to cover the entire way. The ‘under’ also seemed safe with a 14-10
score through three quarters which held until the Raiders took the lead 17-14 with
a touchdown with just over five minutes remaining in the game. Both teams would
score again for a 24-21 Oakland edge in the final seconds. The Steelers picked
up a huge gain on a lateral play to set-up a game-tying field goal that would
have put those on the ‘over’ miraculously back in play but Chris Boswell’s
plant foot slipped and his 40-yard attempt failed as the ‘under’ held on.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) 21,
Minnesota Vikings 7 (45½):
Both defenses were tough
in this Monday NFC showdown with a 3-0 lead for Seattle through three quarters
after Minnesota failed going for it on 4th-and-1 across midfield. In good field
position Seattle got the biggest play of the game to that point with a 31-yard
pass interference call on the first play of the 4th quarter, a play with
minimal contact on a debatably catchable pass. That put Seattle at 1st-and-goal
and Seattle got past the home favorite spread with a field goal to lead 6-0.
Minnesota would go right down the field on its next possession but stalled
inside the 2-yard-line and threw incomplete on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line.
Minnesota’s defense forced a 3-and-out and returned to Seattle territory,
opting for a 47-yard field goal try. Bobby Wagner blocked the kick but was
flagged for pushing off teammates to leap over a gap, a new rule emphasized
this season. Without explanation the flag was picked up as for the second time
in the game a clear 15-yard penalty on Wagner was missed after he got away with
a facemask in the 1st quarter. With the block Seattle took over downs near
midfield when the penalty would have given Minnesota 1st down at the Seattle
14-yard-line in an egregious officiating mistake that created a huge swing in
the potential result of the game. A big Russell Wilson scramble put the game away
for the Seahawks who would also add a late score on defense before Minnesota
avoided the shutout with a garbage-time touchdown for a very misleading final
score.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#124 San Francisco 49ers +3 over Denver Broncos 3:05 PM CT

Denver has faced a difficult schedule this season while looking the part against some of the league’s top teams including wins over the Chargers and Steelers. Denver also lost to the Jets however and is is a challenging scheduling spot this week facing a third road game in four weeks and a second straight road contest after winning in Cincinnati last week. The Broncos caught a break on the schedule last week vs. the sinking Bengals drawing the first start from Jeff Driskel.

Denver won 24-10 but Cincinnati had three turnovers and 12 penalties. The Broncos had a solid edge on the ground but fewer first downs while losing the time of possession battle as well. 10 Denver points came on drives of just 33 and 7 yards as there was good fortune for the Broncos. This could be a dangerous game in San Francisco with the Broncos back in the playoff race and now a healthy road favorite for the second straight week. 2-10 San Francisco has a top 10 run defense and the 49ers have had some misleading results this season thanks to a NFL worst -20 turnover margin juggling three different quarterbacks and numerous injuries on offense.

The 49ers are also a top 10 rushing team as Denver isn’t likely to enjoy a big rushing edge in this matchup. San Francisco has out-rushed six of the past eight foes while out-gaining three of the last four foes by at least 97 yards. The 49ers are the more productive passing team with Denver posting only 6.8 yards per attempt and Denver actually allows a higher completion rate and more yards per attempt on defense than San Francisco despite the perception of these defenses. Emmanuel Sanders is also out of action to greatly limit Denver’s passing potential. Denver is on a 5-11 ATS run in road games and this could be the biggest road favorite spread since 2015 for the Broncos.

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NFL Close Calls Week 13

NFL Close Calls – Week 13

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 13 of the NFL regular season.

Miami Dolphins (-3½) 21, Buffalo Bills 17 (40): The Dolphins led 14-6 at the half and 14-9 through three quarters on a spread that fell from -6 to just -3½. After both teams had interceptions late in the third quarter Josh Allen led a touchdown drive to put Buffalo in front at the 12-minute mark, with the two-point conversion making it a 17-14 edge. With the help of two penalties for 36 yards Miami answered with a touchdown drive in only six plays to go in front 21-17, past the favorite spread while inching closer to the total that closed at 40. The Bills missed a 55-yard field goal on their next drive with back-to-back sacks making that kick much more difficult. Miami only burned a minute of clock as the Bills got the ball back with more than two minutes remaining. Buffalo reached the Miami 25-yard line but a field goal wouldn’t be enough. A third down completion to the Miami 6-yard-line was overturned on replay review and on 4th-and-11 the Miami defense held to secure the narrow win while the ‘under’ also held on.

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New York Giants (+3½) 30, Chicago Bears 27 (43½): After the Bears had a comeback win last week and the Giants had a late collapse the same storyline looked to be unfolding in this matchup. The Giants led by 10 entering the fourth quarter and held Chicago to a field goal on an early drive to keep a seven-point edge. Chicago would get the ball back with more than two minutes remaining but fumbled immediately. With great field position New York had to settle for a field goal while only trimming 30 seconds off the clock. Still it was a 10-point game when the Bears got the ball back after the two-minute warning. Chase Daniel led the Bears to a field goal in just 36 seconds. Chicago got the onside kick and Daniel delivered a few big plays to tie the game as time expired. In overtime New York went first and got a 44-yard field goal. Daniel couldn’t deliver again, struggling to hold on to the ball and eventually failing on 4th-and-8 near midfield as the underdog Giants held on this week.

Los Angeles Rams (-10) 30, Detroit Lions 16 (53½): Detroit wound up holding the Rams to just 344 yards and trailed by only three points well into the fourth quarter as a heavy home underdog. Matthew Stafford would have another big late game turnover, fumbling on a sack near midfield to give the Rams great field position. Three plays later the Rams went up by 10 with fewer than seven minutes remaining in the game to match the spread. Detroit had a costly red zone holding penalty and settled for a field goal past the three-minute mark to get back within one score. The onside kick try was not recovered and the Rams nearly could have taken a knee with Detroit exhausting its timeouts. Instead Todd Gurley ran into the end zone after the two-minute warning to suddenly give the Rams a 14-point edge. The Lions were a threat to get back within the number late reaching the Los Angeles 14-yard-line in the final seconds before Stafford threw an interception in the end zone to end a loss for a second straight week.

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Arizona Cardinals (+13½) 20, Green Bay Packers 17 (41): In what turned out to be Mike McCarthy’s final game for the Packers, Green Bay never approached the heavy-favorite spread. A three-point edge at halftime was erased as Arizona scored 10 points in four minutes late in the third quarter to lead by seven. The Packers tied the game at 17-17 with five minutes to go but Arizona managed a late field goal after the two-minute warning. Those on the ‘over’ liked their chances with a late Green Bay score either clearing the number or forcing overtime. The Packers didn’t make the task easy with Aaron Rodgers unable to move further than the Arizona 31-yard-line and in windy, wet conditions Mason Crosby missed from 49 yards.

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) 40, Oakland Raiders 33 (54): The Chiefs led 33-16 entering the fourth quarter to sit past a spread that climbed as high as -15½ before settling right on 14. Derek Carr led two fourth quarter touchdown drives to suddenly put the Raiders within three with nearly seven minutes remaining. A big offside call converted a key 3rd down for Kansas City and the Chiefs wound up in the end zone just after the two-minute warning to seal the win up by 10. Oakland would wind up with a late field goal but only 28 seconds were on the clock when the Raiders failed on an onside kick attempt.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 33, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (53½): With 10 points in the final three minutes before halftime, Pittsburgh had a commanding 23-7 edge in the Sunday night game. That margin held until the final two minutes of the third quarter with the Chargers completing a 13-play, 88-yard touchdown drive and also adding the two-point conversion. Pittsburgh still led by eight but a sack and a holding call had the Steelers facing 4th-and-24 and they punted back to the Chargers who delivered a 73-yard punt return touchdown. Another successful two-point conversion tied the game at 23-23. Pittsburgh went three-and-out on offense and the Chargers turned in another touchdown drive to suddenly lead by seven at the eight-minute mark. Pittsburgh regrouped for a 12-play touchdown drive that included a 4th down conversion but more than four minutes remained on the clock. The Chargers methodically used up the remaining clock to line up a game-winning field goal from just 39 yards. The kick was missed but offsides was called. On the second attempt the Steelers got the block but again offsides was called. It was called again on the third attempt but Mike Badgley was good from 29 yards as the Chargers were able to steal a huge road win in the AFC picture, with theses teams now having a good chance of meeting again in the wild card round of the AFC playoffs.

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Philadelphia Eagles (-5½) 28, Washington Redskins 13 (45): The Eagles led 7-3 in the second quarter Monday night when Washington had to turn to third-string quarterback Mark Sanchez after losing Colt McCoy to a broken leg a few weeks after losing Alex Smith to a broken leg. Adrian Peterson broke a long run to give Washington the lead and the Redskins then stepped up on defense with a goal line stand. Washington wasn’t able to take a lead into halftime however as the Eagles found the end zone after the two-minute warning to lead by four facing a favorite spread that slipped from -7 to -5½. Washington managed a field goal just before halftime to trail just 14-13. Josh Norman came up with an interception to keep Philadelphia points off the board in the third quarter as the underdog was still in position to cover despite Sanchez providing little for the Washington offense. Early in the fourth quarter the Eagles finally completed a touchdown drive and went for two successfully to lead by nine. Sanchez was picked off a few plays later near midfield and Philadelphia added a field goal despite picking up only seven yards. Down 12 Washington was still a touchdown away from covering but had negative yards on its final two possessions and the Eagles added a late field goal to complete a big NFC East win. The total also stayed just barely ‘under’ with several missed scoring chances in the game.

 

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Point Train Free Pick

 

FREE PICK 364 NY GIANTS +4.5 over CHI BEARS 12:00 PM CT

It would be easy to assume the Giants have quit on the season after a November surge had the team playing for a long shot division title run. Last week in Philadelphia New York did everything right early with a 19-3 edge but wound up falling 25-22 and now 3-8 any lingering playoff hopes have been extinguished. That doesn’t mean New York will mail it in the rest of the season and a team that was just a slight underdog on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions last week will be similarly priced at home vs. a team with a back-up quarterback this week.

Chase Daniel is an experienced option for the Bears and he played reasonably well last week in the comeback win over the Lions on Thanksgiving morning. The Chicago defense broke a 16-16 tie in the fourth quarter however with a defensive touchdown while also intercepting a late Lions drive that could have forced overtime. Behind Daniel the Bears had just 264 total yards against a mediocre Lions team that doesn’t rate much differently than the Giants at this point. With Daniel in the game and without the rushing ability of Mitchell Trubisky Chicago managed only 38 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry.

Struggling on the ground has been at the forefront of the discussion for the Giants this season but New York has been out-gained on the ground by more than 27 yards just once in the past six games. Chicago meanwhile has been out-rushed in three of the past four games. This will be a second straight road game for the Bears ahead of a huge NFC test with the Rams next week and a Giants team that has played almost exclusively close games this season can again play tight with a spread that has climbed above four points.

Don’t miss POINT TRAIN’S 9-UNIT NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR FOR SUNDAY WEEK 13! Point Train has profited in 9 of 12 NFL weeks, going 26-15, +38.3 units!

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NFL Close Calls – Week 12

NFL Close Calls – Week 12

11/27/2018

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 12 of the NFL regular season.

Chicago Bears (-3) 23, Detroit Lions 16 (43): Chase Daniel filling in for Mitchell Trubisky brought the line on the early Thanksgiving game down from -4 to -3. The Lions trailed 9-7 at the half with the Bears getting a field goal and a touchdown in the final four minutes before halftime. Detroit took a 13-9 advantage into the fourth quarter but the Bears quickly answered to go up by three early in the fourth. The Lions went 73 yards on the next possession but had to settle for a 20-yard field goal to tie the game, after being unable to get in the end zone on a pair of plays inside the 3-yard-line. Detroit’s defense forced a punt but on 1st down Matthew Stafford was intercepted and Eddie Jackson put the Bears in front with a 41-yard return as the Bears suddenly led by seven and the ‘over’ was within a touchdown. Detroit had plenty of time to work with and eventually had a new set of downs at the Chicago 12-yard-line at the two-minute-warning. On 3rd down Stafford was intercepted again this time for a touchback to end the threat as the Bears escaped with the win and cover despite posting only 264 total yards.

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Buffalo Bills (+3) 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 21 (36½): The Bills and Jaguars were tied at 14-14 through three quarters after Josh Lambo missed a field goal from just 42 yards. The Bills haven’t been known as a quick strike offense but in three plays and with the help of 30 penalty yards, Buffalo got in the zone to take a 21-14 edge early in the fourth quarter. Four straight punts followed before the Bills added a field goal after intercepting Blake Bortles deep in Jacksonville territory. The Jaguars would add a touchdown with just over a minute remaining but didn’t get the on-side kick attempt as Buffalo held on for the minor upset and 17 fourth quarter points pushed the game ‘over’ one of the league’s lowest totals of the season.

Baltimore Ravens (-13) 34, Oakland Raiders 17 (41½): Baltimore led just 20-17 through three quarters but another rough fourth quarter was on the way for the Raiders. Former Oakland star Michael Crabtree caught a touchdown pass to put the Ravens up by 10 and Baltimore got a fumble return touchdown from Terrell Suggs a few minutes later after having scored earlier in the game on a punt return putting the Ravens up by 17 on a spread that climbed from -11 to -13. The defeated Raiders didn’t offer a much of a late threat to get back within the number, going backwards on a late 3-and-out.

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Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 25, New York Giants 22 (49):The underdog Giants had a 19-3 edge but the Eagles got eight points with about a minute to go before halftime and then added another three to trail by just five through three quarters. With 10 minutes to go Philadelphia went up by three with another touchdown with a successful two-point conversion, but that lead was not quite enough against a line that opened at -6 never fell past -4 during the week. The Giants tied the game with a short field goal with about six minutes remaining but Philadelphia burned most of the remaining time to hit from 43 yards for a three-point edge for a demoralizing loss for New York, though the effort was enough for the underdog to narrowly hold the cover.

New England Patriots (-13) 27, New York Jets 13 (47): The Jets were tied with the Patriots 13-13 with four minutes left in the third quarter but Tom Brady hit Julian Edelman for a 21-yard touchdown as the AFC East leaders took a seven-point edge in the final frame on a spread that climbed up to -13 from an early week price of just -9. The Jets crossed midfield on its next drive but early in the fourth quarter opted to punt after taking a 3rd down sack. New England then completed an 80-yard drive with nine minutes to go for that 14-point advantage. It looked like the Jets would earn the backdoor cover reaching the New England 4-yard-line at the two-minute warning. Josh McCown had two throws to the end zone fall incomplete however as the Patriots held the 14-point margin.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) 30, Carolina Panthers 27 (47): Carolina led by three through three quarters and took a seven-point edge with seven minutes remaining in a game where the Panthers finished with 476 total yards but had a few missed opportunities early to keep Seattle in the game. Seattle went 75 yards in just over three minutes to answer with a tying touchdown. Graham Gano then missed a 52-yard field goal try just after the two-minute warning for the Panthers and without a timeout the Seahawks went 45 yards for Sebastian Janikowski to connect from 31 for the upset win in Charlotte with the Seahawks posting 20 points in the final 22 minutes of the game.

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Denver Broncos (+3) 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 17 (49): These teams were tied at 3-3, 10-10, and then 17-17 through three quarters with Pittsburgh turnovers offsetting a significant production edge. The Broncos completed a 79-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter after a Pittsburgh fumble just outside of the red zone but it appeared the Steelers would tie the game to potentially force overtime. Pittsburgh wound up with a new set of downs at the Denver 3-yard-line just after the two-minute warning but on 3rd-and-goal Ben Roethlisberger rushed a pass up the middle after an awkward exchange and the errant throw was snagged by defensive lineman Shelby Harris for an interception in the end zone to seal the minor upset for the Broncos. That turnover also sealed the ‘under’ with the total likely to be eclipsed had the game headed to overtime.

Minnesota Vikings (-4) 24, Green Bay Packers 17 (49): The Sunday night NFC North battle appeared to be headed towards a shootout with a 14-14 score just four minutes into the second quarter but Minnesota would miss a pair of field goals before halftime. In the second half both teams punted on early possessions while the Packers failed near midfield going for it on 4th-and-1. The good field position allowed Minnesota to finally add three to take the lead with just over three minutes remaining in the third quarter with the spread climbing from -3 to -4 by kickoff after opening at -3½. The Vikings were able to take a 10-point lead just before the start of the fourth quarter and then halfway through the fourth the Packers defense got a big 3rd down sack to stay in the game, pushing Minnesota out of field goal range. On the punt disaster struck as the ball bounced into returner Tramon Williams and was recovered by Minnesota at the Green Bay 15-yard-line. Still no points were recorded as Mike Zimmer and the Vikings eventually opted to go for it on 4th-and-2 from the 7-yard-line up by 10. The Packers would face a similar decision on 4th-and-1 ahead of the two-minute-warning but opted to kick the 38-yard field goal to get back within one score, three points which were no help to those on the Packers, while the ‘under’ was also able to hold on.

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

 

#265 Miami Dolphins +9 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM CT

The Colts have some momentum with four straight wins to reach 5-5 but they beat teams that are a combined 13-27 in that run while getting to face a back-up quarterback last week against a Titans team that provided the highest quality win for the Colts in that run. Ryan Tannehill is set to return for Miami this week as they won’t again get to face a backup quarterback but some rust is possible for the Miami offense. It is the Colts that will be shorthanded on offense however with Center Ryan Kelly ruled out to shake up the offensive line while only two healthy tight ends are available this week for Indianapolis.

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While the Colts held the Titans to just 10 points last week allowing 28 to the Raiders and 26 to the Jaguars presents some concern for the Indianapolis defense and Tannehill had very capable numbers this season before his injury. 5-5 on the season, the Dolphins are still in the AFC Wild Card picture and Miami enters this critical game off a bye week for a potential advantage. Miami is only 1-4 on the road but they have had to face the Patriots, Bengals, Texans, and Packers in those road losses as this is likely the most favorable road game for the team since a Week 2 win over the Jets.

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The Colts haven’t been a favorite of more than seven points in four years going back to November of 2014 as this is an inflated price to give with a Colts defense that has surrendered 25 points per game through what rates as the second weakest schedule in the league. The Colts have the seventh most passing attempts in the league but Miami has the far superior pass defense in this matchup with the Colts allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of throws this season, the second worst mark in the league only ahead of Tampa Bay’s historically bad pass defense. Those marginal pass numbers have come against Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold in the past five games as while Tannehill isn’t a star quarterback he compares very favorably with that grouping.

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Nelly’s went 3-0 in the NFL last Sunday while 11-5 the past five weeks – get Sunday’s 2/3 for $25! Bobby Dalton went 4-0 Saturday and is on an 8-1 run in football totals while going 12-7 in NFL 10* picks this season – get a 10* total as part of a High Five Offer for NFL Week 12 for $39.99. Maximum Sports has a guaranteed 5-Pack with a 60% guarantee Sunday coming off cashing his 10* Game of the Month yesterday with Ohio State. Point Train has 5-unit Total for Sunday night, coming off a 5-unit winner last night. Big E also has his next 10* Biggie coming off winning his Game of the Month last Sunday!

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ELIMINATOR FINAL 2

A successful Eliminator Contest featured great carnage in Week 10 with seven of nine contestants bounced from the contest!

2011 Eliminator Champion Weekly Wizard was the only handicapper to win his DOUBLE PLAY last week and he leads the contest with 7 points. BB Documented Plays is still in the running with 9 points looking to sweep this week to take the title in his first season participating in the contest!

Check out the current standings and this week’s SINGLE PLAYS! 

You can purchase the DOUBLE PLAYS for just $9 in what could be the final week of the contest. The Double Plays have collectively gone 80-63-5 this contest season for great results! All the contest picks are in the NFL this week for Sunday, Nov. 25.

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*Nelly’s 2019-20 Green Sheet Newsletter Subscription

The Green Sheet had a mildly disappointing season in 2018-19 to end a run of seven straight winning seasons with…

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*Nelly’s Green Sheet Off-Season Issue #3

Our third Green Sheet issue takes a look at the five power conferences in college football with a brief schedule…

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Nelly’s Green Sheet Off-Season Issue #2

Our second Green Sheet issue dives into the 2019 NFL schedule with nearly 3,000 words of analysis plus schedule numbers…

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