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Free NBA Pick Saturday

#547 San Antonio Spurs +3.5 over Los Angeles Clippers 9:35 PM CT

The Clippers moved to 21-14 late last night with a ‘road’ win over the rival Lakers, and despite the 11-point final margin it was a tight game most of the way. A Clippers team that has been short-handed most of the month got a big game from Lou Williams who recently returned from injury while Marcin Gortat also played a few minutes as the team is getting its roster back to full strength. This could be a challenging turnaround given the magnitude of last night’s game however.

The Spurs and Clippers have split a pair of meetings this season with the host winning both games though the Spurs are +33 in scoring in those games. Despite the lesser record the Spurs have the stronger average scoring differential and San Antonio has more quality wins. San Antonio played last night in Denver and had a hard-fought three-point loss vs. the Western Conference leaders, after beating Denver in San Antonio on Wednesday. San Antonio is on an 8-3 run with all three losses in that span coming very narrowly and the Spurs are undervalued as a team that is climbing its way back to Western Conference relevance. With both teams playing in second-straight games after big games last night, the points are appealing.

Nelly’s is on an outrageous 14-1 NBA run while 22-6 in basketball picks since Dec. 6. We have won our Saturday Basketball 2/3 Offer in back-to-back weeks going 6-0 on those picks. Get a NBA pick and two college picks for Saturday for $25 in today’s 2/3 offer.


Also check out bowl and NFL picks on the site this weekend with several big plays from Nelly’s and the featured handicappers.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#632 Georgia +3 over Arizona State 5:00 PM CT

Bobby Hurley’s Arizona State squad has started 7-1 but the team enters the season’s very first road game off a loss to highly ranked Nevada last weekend in a six-point game. The Sun Devils have a big week on tap with non-conference road games vs. SEC teams Saturday and Monday before hosting top ranked Kansas next Saturday. The seven-wins have included narrow quality wins over Mississippi State and Utah State in Las Vegas but also close calls at home vs. Cal-State Fullerton and Texas Southern. Arizona State went just 3-6 on the road in Pac-12 play last season and the Sun Devils are a risky road favorite in this game.

Georgia is just 5-3 with no wins of substance but this is a transition season for Tom Crean who looks to rebuild the program in Athens. Turnovers have been an issue but the statistical profile is encouraging for the Bulldogs and this will be a big opportunity at home for the team with by far the biggest non-conference home date on this season’s schedule. Georgia has one of the better defensive effective field goal rates in the nation and the team had had more than a week to prep for this opportunity.

Nelly’s is 8-2 in our last 10 Basketball picks – don’t miss a Saturday 2/3 offer!

Big E is on a 7-2-2 run in College Basketball Biggies

Bobby Dalton is 12-6 so far in December hoops! 

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Conference Championship Notes

Conference Championship Notes

Playing for a championship is the goal of every program and eight conference champions will be decided on Saturday. College Playoff berths are not likely on the line in the Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West games but all four contests will be rematches to fill out the championship Saturday schedule. One of these teams should also get called for the top Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Venue: At Johnny Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 1:30 PM ET, CBSSN

Line: Middle Tennessee State -1, Over/Under 44½

Last Meeting: November 24, 2018 at Middle Tennessee State (+3) 27, UAB 3

UAB wasn’t playing football two years ago and after a successful bowl season in last year’s re-boot the Blazers look to take another step this season with a division title and a shot a the conference title. Middle Tennessee State is also in the Conference USA Championship for the first time looking to keep a run of four consecutive championships for the East division champion going.

Bill Clark stayed with UAB through the two-year hiatus after coaching the Blazers for his first season in 2014 following one year at Jacksonville State. UAB was perfect at home this season in a 9-3 campaign though the team enters this game off back-to-back losses, falling 41-20 to Texas A&M and then in last week’s game in Murfreesboro. Senior quarterback A.J. Erdely miss three November games before returning last week with freshman Tyler Johnston filling in with similar numbers as both could see the field this week.

Rick Stockstill won a Sun Belt title in his first season with the program in 2006 and this will be his first trip back to a championship game, leading mostly successful results over now 13 seasons with an 87-76 record and no losing seasons in Conference USA play. Last year’s team had a lot of potential but his son Brent was injured most of the year. Back as a senior quarterback the younger Stockstill has posted terrific numbers this season and he missed most of the one conference game the Blue Raiders lost at Florida International.

These schools are only about 200 miles apart as a good crowd should be expected even with some potential rain in the forecast for Saturday.

Regular Season Meeting: These teams met just last week on the same field. The incentives were vastly different however as Middle Tennessee State needed to win to get to this game and shortly after kickoff knew that Florida International had lost to make it a win-and-win-the-division-title game. UAB had already clinched its division and had little at stake last week and it showed, ultimately posting only 89 net yards of offense and not scoring again after taking a 3-0 lead on the opening drive in an eventual 27-3 result.

Series History: UAB won last season’s meeting 25-23 while Middle Tennessee State has won four of seven meetings since 1995 with a 3-2 ATS run in lined games since 2000.

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AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: Memphis Tigers at Central Florida Knights

Venue: At Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida

Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 3:30 PM ET, ABC

Line: Central Florida -3, Over/Under 65

Last Meeting: October 13, 2018, Central Florida (-4½) 31, at Memphis 30

This will be the fourth meeting in two seasons for these programs with UCF looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 25 games with a second straight conference title. The storyline however will be the absence of quarterback McKenzie Milton who was injured for UCF in last week’s win over South Florida.

In last year’s championship game these teams put on a show with Milton helping to deliver a 62-55 win in double-overtime with both teams eclipsing 700 yards of offense in a game with several big swings. UCF has won the regular season meetings the past two years as well, getting a lopsided home win last year and this year winning in Memphis by one-point with a second half comeback.

The Tigers are one of the nation’s top rushing teams with Darrell Henderson posting 1,699 yards so far and Memphis posting 6.4 yards per carry for nearly 276 yards per game. Replacing a highly productive quarterback, junior Brady White has been effective in his first season after transferring from Arizona State. Freshman Darriel Mack will start at quarterback for UCF with Milton out. Mack did play in entire game in the win over East Carolina but that has been his only meaningful action this season. He is much bigger than Milton and a serious rushing threat but likely not nearly the same caliber performer in the passing game at this point in his career.

Regular Season Meeting: In a highly anticipated rematch of the 2017 championship game Memphis took command early with a 30-14 edge until just before halftime. UCF trimmed the deficit to just six points in the third quarter and then took a one-point lead in the fourth. Memphis fumbled twice in the second half to wind up shut out in the second half at home and losing despite a 281-165 rushing edge.

Series History: Central Florida has won S/U 12 meetings in a row in this series going back to 2005 with the last win for Memphis coming in 1990 when UCF was not playing at the top college football level. Memphis has gone 4-2-1 ATS in the seven meetings going back to 2010.

 

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SUN BELT CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers

Venue: At Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina

Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN

Line: Appalachian State -18, Over/Under 59

Last Meeting: October 2, 2018 at Appalachian State (-25½) 27, UL-Lafayette 17

The Sun Belt split into two five-team divisions this season and will join the Championship Weekend with the inaugural title game this weekend after often featuring a full regular season schedule in this final weekend in previous years. There was great drama in determining the division champions this season with last week’s results meaningful and the heavy Sun Belt favorite to open the season, Arkansas State, did not make it.

Scott Satterfield led a 4-8 FCS squad in his first season in Boon in 2013 but has had a winning season every year since the program jumped to the FBS level in 2014. The Mountaineers are 3-0 in bowl games the past three years and 39-11 the past four years combined while going 28-4 in Sun Belt play in that span. Expect Satterfield to field interviews from prominent openings if he so chooses as he has done a remarkable job. This year may have been his best work as the roster appeared to be in a major transition with the loss of several key players from last season.

The one game in Sun Belt play that Appalachian State lost came without quarterback Zac Thomas at Georgia Southern and the numbers were dominant for the Mountaineers with a 255-108 scoring record in going 7-1 in league play. Appalachian State went 5-0 at home on the season and nearly upset Penn State in the opening week on the road.

Louisiana started the season 1-3 but losses at Mississippi State and at Alabama certainly are forgivable. The Ragin’ Cajuns beat Arkansas State at home 47-43 and last week earned this spot by besting rival UL-Monroe on the road 31-28. The Ragin’ Cajuns played both Appalachian State and Troy on the road for a difficult crossover draw and lost both games by 10 points in lower scoring games. In going 5-3 in Sun Belt play Louisiana outscored foes by just 24 points while being outscored overall on the season despite being 7-5.

Regular Season Meeting: As a massive home favorite Appalachian State led just 17-10 at the half before pulling away. The final score was 27-17 but Louisiana scored with 63 seconds to go to make the final margin tighter, though the yardage edge for the Mountaineers was modest at 372-328. The ground game was the key with a 266-140 rushing advantage for the Mountaineers at home.

Series History: These teams have met each of the last five years with five straight wins for Appalachian State, going 3-2 ATS including 2-1 in the home meetings.

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MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERNCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos

Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho

Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 7:45 PM ET, ESPN

Line: Boise State -2½, Over/Under 50½

Last Meeting: November 9, 2018, at Boise State (+2½) 24, Fresno State 17

These teams met in the Mountain West title game last season with a 17-14 win for Boise State with a 90-yard touchdown drive for the lead late in the fourth quarter. That was after Fresno State defeated Boise State at home the previous week to close the regular season. These teams also met in the 2014 MWC Championship, also a win but missed cover for Boise State.

The stakes are potentially higher this season as if UCF loses to Memphis now playing without its star quarterback, the victor of this game could be the highest rated Group of Five squad in line for a New Year’s Six bowl bid. Boise State is currently 22nd while Fresno State is 25th in those rankings. UCF is 8th and could potentially hold the highest ranked spot with a loss though that would be an unusual precedent to set as they wouldn’t be a conference champion and would likely look like a much less promising team without Milton.

Marcus McMaryion and Brett Rypien are both in the nation’s top 12 in QB Rating and both seniors are coming to the close of excellent seasons and careers. They have combined to throw only 10 interceptions in nearly 800 attempts. Defense has been the key for Fresno State however, second nationally allowing just 13.5 points per game with a significant edge in pass defense relative to Boise State. The Broncos are 119-7 S/U at home since 1999 for truly the toughest home field edge in the nation however.

Regular Season Meeting: As a rare home underdog Boise State fell behind 17-3 early in the third quarter. The Broncos rallied to win in the fourth taking a 24-17 edge while Fresno State had a missed field goal while getting stopped on downs in Boise territory on its final two possessions. Boise State had a 448-390 edge in yards and committed the only turnover in the game.

Series History: Boise State is 15-4 S/U in this series since 1996 with a 13-5 ATS record however Fresno State has covered in four of the past five meetings. This will be the MWC Championship matchup for the third time in the last five years with a 28-14 win for Boise in 2014 and a 17-14 win over Boise last season with the Broncos hosting all of those games. Fresno State did win S/U hosting Boise State in the regular season in 2013 and 2017 but has not won in Boise since 1984.

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Free NCAA Pick Early Saturday

#204 Baylor +5.5 over Texas Tech 11:00 AM CT

Texas Tech has won by double-digits the past two seasons in this series after losing five in a row from 2011 to 2015. A season that has featured many promising moments comes down to this game for Kliff Kingsbury however. Both teams are 5-6 as a spot in the postseason is on the line in what feels like a critical season for Kingsbury.

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Baylor failed in a great opportunity at home last week with the Bears now losers of four of the past five. Texas Tech has much better scoring numbers in league play but has lost four in a row and the offense just hasn’t been as successful without Alan Bowman at quarterback including posting only 181 of offense last week at Kansas State.

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Baylor was burned by three turnovers last week to lose hosting TCU but the previous week the Bears posted over 500 yards of offense against one of the best defenses in the Big XII in a 28-14 loss at Iowa State. The Bears also have wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State while competing very well at Texas with the only lopsided losses on the season coming at Oklahoma and at West Virginia. Texas Tech got to host those games as the Bears drew one of the tougher schedules in the conference.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#393 Bowling Green +7 over Akron 2:30 PM CT

Bowling Green is just 2-8 this season but two of the past three losses have come by just seven points each. The Falcons played a difficult non-conference schedule and the MAC West draw featured two of the better teams in that division. This is the road finale for the Falcons after a win at Central Michigan last week, dominating with a 320-166 yardage edge. Jarret Doege has been a productive quarterback with 24 touchdown throws while the team got running back Andrew Clair back from injury last week with the sophomore posting 5.8 yards per carry the past two seasons.

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Akron was in the MAC Championship last season and beat Northwestern earlier this season. The Zips are on a 2-5 run since however and the offense has really struggled since having to turn to Alex Ramart at quarterback. Kato Nelson missed the last game and is a question mark this week for Akron and Ramart has one of the worst season lines one will ever see, 28 percent completions, 1.9 yards per attempt, one touchdown, and six interceptions.

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Akron is a lousy rushing team posting 3.2 yards per carry and Nelson was a big piece of that ground production. Akron is technically alive in the bowl hunt at 4-5 but they will be heavy road underdogs the next two weeks as this home finale isn’t likely to bring great fanfare. The three FBS wins for Akron this season have come by five, one, and seven points and last season Akron had a comeback win at Bowling Green despite getting out-gained with the Falcons committing four turnovers, including a 4th quarter interception returned for a touchdown.

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Don’t miss the next 20* Conference Game of the Year from the Big E on Saturday – just $20.94 with a 21-7-1 run in 20* & higher picks live! Nelly’s has won our NCAA 2/3 five of the last seven Saturdays – get 2/3 today for $25! Point Train has a guaranteed 6-unit play while Maximum has his 7* Game of the Week for big Saturday picks with both turning in huge NCAA returns this season. Keep posted for Bobby Dalton releases Saturday as well!

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4th Quarter Covers NCAA Week 11

4th Quarter Covers – NCAA Week 11

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 11th college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Boise State (+2½) 24, Fresno State 17: As a rare home underdog Boise State trailed 17-3 just after halftime hosting Fresno State in Friday’s big Mountain West contest. A long touchdown drive put the Broncos back within seven late in the third quarter and then the Broncos defense forced a punt. The Broncos then posted another long touchdown drive to tie the game early in the fourth quarter. The defense got a big third down stop near midfield and then for the third consecutive possession went the distance against Fresno State’s great defense to lead 24-17 with nine minutes to go. Fresno State had a 50-yard field goal blocked on its next possession but was able to get the ball right back. The Bulldogs had a new set of downs at the Boise State 28-yard line in the final minutes but took a 3rd down sack and failed on 4th-and-long as Boise State held on.

Texas A&M (-13½) 38, Mississippi 24: After a 96-yard fumble return touchdown Ole Miss led 21-14 in the third quarter but the Aggies tied the game and early in the fourth quarter went up by three with a long field goal. The Rebels missed a tying kick with seven minutes to go from just 22 yards and Texas A&M made it a 10-point game a few plays later. Ole Miss got back within seven with a field goal just after the two-minute mark to seemingly seal the underdog cover but on a short field after the failed on-side kick attempt, Travyeon Williams broke free for a 46-yard touchdown run to put A&M up by 14. Ole Miss would reach the Texas A&M 22-yard-line in the finals seconds but came up empty.

Iowa State (-17) 28, Baylor 14: The Bears wound up out-gaining Iowa State 505-355 and didn’t have a turnover yet they had just seven points entering the fourth quarter, with two early missed field goals a factor. After a third quarter brawl that led to key players on both sides getting ejected, Baylor would add an early fourth quarter touchdown to get within the spread. The Bears couldn’t get any closer as they were stopped on downs inside the 20 on two different late possessions.

Eastern Michigan (-13) 27, Akron 7: After a scoreless third quarter Eastern Michigan led Akron just 10-7 but with the Zips pinned deep the Eagles scored on a short interception return touchdown to lead by 10 and then following another interception, scored seconds later to fly past the favorite spread. Eastern Michigan added another field goal for the 20-point final in a game where Akron wound up with only 90 net yards on offense.

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Indiana (-1) 34, Maryland 32: Indiana led 31-15 halfway through the third quarter but Maryland made a valiant comeback, ultimately taking the lead 32-31 with about five minutes remaining and failing going for two after the second touchdown after successfully converting a two-point conversion late in the third quarter. Indiana did just enough to get into field goal range with Logan Justus hitting from 42 yards to give Indiana a two-point edge as a very slight favorite. Maryland crossed midfield on its final possession but fumbled on a sack as the Hoosiers held on.

Duke (-8) 42, North Carolina 35: Both teams had big production in this game but after a high scoring first half Duke settled in defensively and took a 42-28 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Tar Heels were stopped on downs at the Duke 31 but were able to get the ball back and eventually completed a 16-play touchdown drive to climb within seven with just over a minute remaining. The on-side kick failed and Duke was on the edge of field goal range and opted to go for it on 4th-and-12, ultimately winding up with an interception to give the Tar Heels another shot. North Carolina reached the Duke 39-yard-line before running out of time.

Alabama (-22) 24, Mississippi State 0: This line fell from as high as -26 but Alabama led by just 21 at the and failed to add points in the third quarter. On back-to-back drives Mississippi State went for it on 4th downs near midfield and came up short, handing Alabama good field position and the Tide eventually added a field goal to go up 24-0. With just over a minute to go Alabama had the ball back inside the Mississippi State 10 but ultimately failed to add points going for it on 4th-and-goal.

Air Force (-14) 42, New Mexico 24: A defensive score put the Lobos back in the game trialing by 11 entering the fourth quarter. Air Force fumbled on its next possession to give New Mexico the ball right back but the Lobos couldn’t take advantage. Air Force eventually added a touchdown with 10 minutes remaining to slip past the favorite spread and New Mexico didn’t threaten late.

Florida Atlantic (-17½) 34, Western Kentucky 15: A lot of points were left off the board by Florida Atlantic who led just 17-9 through three quarters despite ultimately posting nearly 600 yards of offense. In the fourth the Owls took control of the game with 10 early points to lead by 18 with this spread at -18 or -18½ much of the week before closing at -17½. Western Kentucky would score with about six minutes to go to close to within 12, missing on the two-point conversion. The Owls broke a late 77-yard run to go back up by 19 to pass up the favorite spread.

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Old Dominion (+15½) 34, North Texas 31: The Mean Green stormed out to a 28-0 lead in this game, favored by -14 most of the week before a late rise. The Monarchs managed 10 points in the final three minutes before halftime to stay in the game however. Old Dominion scored first in the second half but North Texas hit a field goal to go back up by 14. Old Dominion kept the pressure on with a quick touchdown drive. Then on the next two possessions North Texas had a fumble and then after an Old Dominion field goal trimmed the lead to four points, the Mean Green failed going for it on 4th-and-1 just short of midfield. With 15 seconds to go the Monarchs found the end zone to complete the comeback for a stunning upset.

UL-Lafayette (-13½) 36, Georgia State 22: This was a two-point game through three quarters but the Ragin’ Cajuns scored three touchdowns in the first eight minutes of the fourth quarter to lead 36-14, going for two on the third score up by 22 and unable to get it. The spread on this game opened at -13 and reached as high as -14½ before settling at -13½. With just over four minutes to go Georgia State completed a 75-yard touchdown drive and down 16 opted to go for two in an important play for many. Aaron Winchester hit Diondre Champaigne for the conversion for a 14-point final margin.

Ohio State (-3) 26, Michigan State 6: The final score looks like a blowout but Ohio State led by just 7-6 late in the third quarter before getting nine points on defense with a safety and a fumble return touchdown in the span of just two minutes bridging the start of the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes added a field goal to go up 19-6 and then scored a touchdown with just over a minute to go to create a misleading 26-6 result.

Clemson (-18) 27, Boston College 7: Boston College scored on an early punt return touchdown to lead 7-3 but Clemson only trailed for a few minutes, getting back in front 13-7 by halftime. The Tigers added a touchdown early in the third quarter and then in the fourth got a punt return touchdown of their own to lead by 20, slipping past the heavy favorite spread.

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Utah (-6) 32, Oregon 25: The Utes relied on kicker Matt Gay for five field goals to lead 22-17 through three quarters. The Ducks took a 25-22 lead halfway through the fourth following a blocked punt. Utah would answer as freshman quarterback Jason Shelley led a quick touchdown drive to put Utah up by four, short of the closing number on a spread that climbed from -3 to -6 during the week. Oregon had to go for it on 4th down just past midfield and Utah did enough for Gay to add one more field goal for a seven-point win and favorite cover.

Georgia (-13½) 27, Auburn 10: Auburn led 10-6 late in the second quarter but with a few big breaks Georgia scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes before halftime to lead 20-10 at the break for a huge swing. That edge would hold through a scoreless third quarter before Auburn hit on a 77-yard run to go up by 17. On a meaningless late possession Auburn reach the Georgia 35-yard-line and threw to the end zone on 4th-and-4, getting a pass interference call but the flag was surprisingly picked up and ruled an uncatchable pass to end the game.

Texas (-2) 41, Texas Tech 34: The Longhorns led by seven at the half and by 17 though three quarters and after an exchange of touchdowns Texas still led by 17 halfway through the fourth quarter. Texas Tech added a field goal to get back within two scores and then got an on-side kick and made the most of the opportunity with a touchdown to suddenly trail by only seven. The Red Raiders forced a 3-and-out and scored again in just five plays to tie the game. With still nearly two minutes remaining Sam Ehlinger used his arm and legs to get Texas to the edge of field goal range and with 21 seconds left Lil’Jordan Humphrey made a leaping catch and dove into the end zone for the Texas win.

LSU (-13) 24, Arkansas 17: LSU managed to pull away in the third quarter to take a 24-3 lead but Arkansas climbed back in the game late with an early fourth quarter touchdown and then a score to cut the margin to just seven with still more than five minutes remaining. LSU managed to burn the entire remaining clock and ultimately took a knee at the Arkansas 1-yard-line after Nick Brossette was stopped just short of the goal line.

Stanford (-25) 48, Oregon State 17: The Beavers scored twice right before halftime to trail just 34-17 and they clung to the underdog cover trailing 41-17 through three quarters. The Cardinal added a fourth quarter touchdown to go up by 31 after Oregon State missed a field goal. Oregon State had a late shot to get back within the closing number but failed on 4th down from the Stanford 25-yard-line in the final minute.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#183 New Mexico +13 over Air Force 2:30 PM CT

New Mexico is jut 3-6 but the numbers have been decent if you take out the games vs. the two division leaders in the Mountain West with lopsided losses to Utah State and Fresno State. The Lobos led San Diego State in the fourth quarter last week and three of six losses have come by fewer than 10 points this season. Air Force has a matching 3-6 overall and 1-4 MWC record but the Falcons certainly deserve to be favored in this game with several competitive results through a tough schedule.

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This could be a difficult spot on the schedule after cross country travel last week in a heated rivalry game with Army. Air Force only has two FBS wins this season and just a six-point win over UNLV certainly looks like a suspect result at this point with New Mexico winning by 36 at UNLV. The Lobos will have a good comfort level defending the option and have won S/U in four of the last five meetings in this series while covering in six meeting in a row.

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Air Force hasn’t won by double-digits in this series since 2011 and after playing three of the best MWC teams in succession New Mexico could find better results this week. The prospects of winning out to reach 6-6 and a bowl game are more favorable for Air Force but the Falcons are tough to trust as a heavy home favorite in this game riding a 15-24 ATS run in the home favorite role since 2010.

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Big E is 9-1 the past 5 years in 25* NCAA Picks – his 25* College GOY goes today! Point Train won a pair of 7-unit Top Play last week, don’t miss his Total of the Year! Nelly’s went 4-1 last Saturday and won last night in college football – get our next 3* Top Play! Maximum Sports went 6-1 in his 7-Up offer last Saturday! Bobby Dalton is already 3-0 in football this week!

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4th Quarter Covers – NCAA Week 10

4th Quarter Covers – NCAA Week 10

11/04/2018

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the 10th college football weekend to start November. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Buffalo (-8) 51, Miami, OH 42: The home favorite spread grew from -6½ to -8 by kickoff and the result would come down to the wire in Tuesday’s high scoring MAC contest. Buffalo extended its lead to 35-21 early in the second half and maintained a 14-point edge late in the third quarter but Miami scored twice in the final three minutes of the quarter to tie the game, successfully recovering an on-side kick to set-up the second score. Buffalo answered with about nine minutes remaining in the game but the PAT was missed to leave the underdog Redhawks in position to cover. The Bulls stopped Miami on downs near midfield and then added a field goal to slip past the favorite spread with a nine-point edge. Down two scores Miami continued to move the ball effectively but a sack on the edge of the red zone led to the game’s only turnover. Buffalo wasn’t able to run out the clock as Miami would have another opportunity to spoil the favorite cover but needing to throw down the field, the Redhawks ended with four straight incomplete passes.

Kent State (-1½) 35, Bowling Green 28: The Flashes led by eight through three quarters closing as a slight favorite in this battle at the bottom of the MAC. Following a fumble Bowling Green made a late charge completing a 4th-and-7 and eventually scoring a touchdown to get within two with about five minutes remaining. The two-point conversion was successful to tie the game and both teams followed with 3-and-out possessions. Kent State got the ball back in good field position and broke a 34-yard run to sit in field goal range with fewer than two minutes remaining. The Flashes scored on the next play with an 18-yard rush for a seven-point edge. Bowling Green lost big yardage on a fumble on its final drive but retained possession facing 2nd-and-28 and then 3rd-and-12, with the Flashes sealing the game with an interception.

Toledo (-21) 45, Ball State 13: Toledo jumped out to a 21-0 lead in Wednesday’s MAC game with a defensive score on one of 10 turnovers these teams combined for in the game. Up 28-7 at halftime Toledo was even with the closing spread before adding a field goal in the final seconds to close the third quarter. Ball State scored a touchdown in the fourth but failed going for two, trailing by 18 on a spread that opened at -17 and closed at -21 for the Rockets. It wound up not mattering as Eli Peters threw two more touchdown passes in the fourth quarter as Toledo pulled away for a 32-point win despite only out-gaining Ball State by 94 yards.

Northern Illinois (-6½) 36, Akron 26: The Huskies managed 10 points in the final six minutes of the first half to lead by 14 at the break but Akron rallied in the third quarter, seemingly tying the game with a touchdown to trail 27-26. The PAT was blocked and returned the other way for two points as Northern Illinois took a three-point edge in the final quarter. Jalen McKie who had the PAT return score, would then intercept a pass for a touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Huskies added seven more points and wound up with the narrow favorite cover without scoring on offense in the final 26 minutes of the game.

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Central Florida (-10) 52, Temple 40: The Thursday night TV game in the American generated a lot of interest and the line wobbled all over the place, opening at -12 falling to -10½, climbing back to as high as -13 before crashing all the way back down to -10. Temple had its way offensively in this game and led 34-28 at the half with the ‘over’ cleared in just two quarters. Looking to keep the nation’s longest winning streak going UCF scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to lead by eight with Temple having an interception and a missed field goal. The Owls picked up an interception early in the fourth quarter and would add six points with about 10 minutes remaining in the game, trailing by two, with that margin holding after a failed two-point conversion bid. The Knights went 75 yards in six plays to go up by nine and Owls backers could feel the sting coming as Temple had to work to move down the field, reaching the UCF 20-yard-line on a 10-play drive but taking a sack and forced to go for it on 4th-and-20, coming up with an incomplete pass. With still five minutes to go the Knights couldn’t lay off the gas but UCF was stopped on 3rd-and-3 after Temple exhausted its timeouts just past the two-minute mark. UCF opted to kick the field goal from 32 yards, enough to earn the cover for many on the favorite with the middle possible as well.

Middle Tennessee State (-13½) 29, Western Kentucky 10: The Hilltoppers hit a 46-yard pass play late in the third quarter to enter the final frame down 23-10. Western Kentucky held the Blue Raiders to a short field goal early in the fourth to remain within two scores but falling outside the underdog cover. With a chance to get back within the number the Hilltoppers had a field goal blocked and then later in the fourth was forced to go for it on 4th down in their own territory. Middle Tennessee State added another short field goal to lead by 19 and a last effort from Western Kentucky ended in an interception.

Arizona (-3) 42, Colorado 34: Arizona had a big yardage edge but it was a two-point game at half-time and the Wildcats led just 35-34 through three quarters Friday night. Early in the fourth Arizona hit a 57-yard pass for a touchdown to lead by eight and Colorado couldn’t answer, opting to go for it on 4th-and-9 rather than kick a field goal with 10 minutes remaining. The Buffaloes got another shot after an Arizona interception with Colorado reaching the 18-yard-line before also being intercepted near the goal line and Arizona was able to run out the remaining five minutes of game clock.

Purdue (-2) 38, Iowa 36: Purdue led by 12 entering the fourth quarter but Iowa scored two touchdowns in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter with an interception leading to the second score as suddenly the slight underdog Hawkeyes were in front by one. After trading punts Purdue got the ball back near midfield and managed to waste the rest of the clock and line up a 25-yard field goal for the win, though for most Iowa still had enough to cover priced at +2½ most of the week before bouncing in between +2 and +1½ in the hours before kickoff.

Georgia Tech (-4) 38, North Carolina 28: The Yellow Jackets allowed an early defensive score but rallied to lead 21-10 at the half and 28-20 through three quarters. Early in the fourth North Carolina found the end zone and went for two, successfully tying the game. Georgia Tech was in position to quickly answer but fumbled inside the 10-yard-line but North Carolina would return the favor with an interception. Georgia Tech converted a 4th down play and then added a touchdown with three minutes remaining and then after another Tar Heels interception sealed the game with a field goal.

 

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Memphis (-11) 59, East Carolina 41: This game was tied halfway through the third quarter and Memphis led by just four well into the fourth quarter. The Tigers scored two touchdowns in the span of just over four minutes to pull ahead by 18 as a toxic against the spread season for a productive East Carolina team continued. The Pirates got back within 11 briefly but after a failed on-side kick East Carolina allowed an aggressive Memphis offense to get down the field. The Tigers opted to go for it on 4th-and-goal in a huge play for the spread outcome and succeeded to create the 18-point final margin. East Carolina had its own 4th down attempt in the final minute inside the 10-yard-line but the pass was broken up.

West Virginia (-1) 42, Texas 41: The Longhorns were a 3-point favorite early in the week before dipping to -2 or -1½ and in the hour before game time the number flipped as the Mountaineers closed as a slight favorite. Texas led by one at the half and by four through three quarters, adding a field goal to lead by seven in the fourth quarter. West Virginia completed an 11-play touchdown drive to tie the game with about six minutes remaining but Texas hit a 48-yard pass to lead by seven with just over two minutes to go. West Virginia didn’t face a 3rd down and connected for a 33-yard touchdown with just 16 seconds left on the clock to seemingly force overtime. The Mountaineers declined that opportunity and went for the win with Will Grier getting into the end zone for the one-point victory.

Army (-4½) 17, Air Force 14: Air Force had a few tough breaks in the first half to trail 14-0 but took advantage of a short field late in the third quarter to finally get on the board but the PAT failed, leaving the Falcons down eight with a spread that was +7 most of the week before sliding Friday night and Saturday morning. Army turned in a long drive and managed a field goal to lead by 11 but Air Force put together its best drive of the day to add a touchdown with about five minutes remaining. Down five the Falcons went for two and got it on a play that loomed large for the closing spread of 4½. Army had to punt as the Falcons were a threat to tie the game, eventually reaching the Army 38-yard-line before failing on 3rd and 4th down runs.

South Carolina (+2) 48, Mississippi 44: Ole Miss pulled ahead 44-34 in the first minute of the fourth quarter but South Carolina answered with a touchdown three minutes later to get back within three. The Gamecocks held the Rebels to back-to-back 3-and-outs and then broke a 69-yard run on 1st down, getting in the end zone a few plays later to take the lead. Ole Miss would reach midfield on a late possession but the Gamecocks held on.

 

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Auburn (-3½) 28, Texas A&M 24: The Aggies dominated the box score in this SEC West battle and led 24-14 through three quarters on the road. Early in the fourth Texas A&M missed a short field goal and then later in the fourth the Aggies had an interception at the edge of field goal range to keep the margin at 10. Auburn got back in the game going 71 yards in only two minutes to climb within three with about five minutes remaining in the game. Texas A&M reached midfield but had to punt and a strong return set Auburn up near midfield for the two-minute-drill. It didn’t take long for the Tigers to deliver going 58 yards in two plays as Auburn suddenly was leading and in front of the closing spread. Three penalties thwarted the final drive for Texas A&M as Auburn escaped with a very fortunate result.

Baylor (+6½) 35, Oklahoma State 31: A blocked punt return put Baylor up at halftime but two touchdowns late in the third quarter put Oklahoma State in front by 10. Baylor had a 75-yard rush to answer to trail by three going into the fourth quarter. Justice Hill scored with nine minutes to go as Oklahoma State was back in front by 10 but the Bears would answer with an 86-yard touchdown drive with fewer than six minutes remaining. Up by three the Cowboys would face a decision just past the two-minute mark, facing 4th-and-2 from the Baylor 36-yard-line. Oklahoma State went for it and took a sack setting up the Bears with great field position. Baylor wasn’t content to play for the tie and wound up in the end zone for the upset with seven seconds to go.

Massachusetts (+2) 62, Liberty 59: UMass led by seven entering the fourth quarter but Liberty scored three touchdowns in the first four minutes of the final frame to suddenly lead by 14. Massachusetts would answer to get back within seven and then forced a punt. The Minutemen converted a 4th down to keep hopes alive and eventually ran into the end zone with 25 seconds remaining. Liberty had a shot late but threw an interception at the 5-yard-line as time expired. It took three overtimes but starting the third session Liberty converted a 4th-and-1 rather than kicking a field goal but then two plays later lost the ball with an interception. Massachusetts did enough to get the game-winning field goal for the narrow win and cover for most, though Massachusetts did open at -3.

Notre Dame (-9½) 31, Northwestern 21: Notre Dame posted nearly double the yardage against Northwestern but had trouble pulling away with a 7-7 halftime score. Notre Dame scored twice late in the third quarter and pushed the lead to 24-7 early in the fourth. Northwestern hit a few big plays to climb back within 10, with a spread that opened at just -7 but briefly went as high as -10½ before settling back below -10. A blocked punt handed Northwestern great field position and suddenly the Wildcats were back within three after getting in the end zone on a 4th down rush. Notre Dame went 89 yards for a touchdown with about three minutes remaining to put the margin back at 10 where the final ended.

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USC (-15½) 38, Oregon State 21: USC had a 21-0 edge halfway through the second quarter but Oregon State climbed back in the game with two touchdowns before halftime. The seven-point margin held into the fourth after an exchange of touchdowns in the third quarter but USC broke a 62-yard run in the fourth to go back up by 14 following Oregon State failing going for it on 4th down in USC territory. The Beavers would wind up punting on the next two possessions while USC added a field goal that was critical to the spread outcome.

Washington (-8½) 27, Stanford 23: The Huskies went up 21-0 early in the second quarter in this Pac-12 North clash and that score held at halftime. Stanford battled back in the second half and closed to within seven with a field goal early in the fourth quarter. Washington responded in kind to lead by 10 with five minutes remaining on a spread that was -10 much of the week but slipped to -8½ by kickoff Saturday night. Stanford hit a 33-yard touchdown pass with three minutes remaining but missed the PAT. Washington wasn’t able to add points to get back in front of the number, pinning Stanford at the 15-yard-line. The Cardinal made a late threat but wound up intercepted in the end zone in the final seconds but Stanford had done enough in the second half to cover.

 

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#393 Louisiana Tech +23.6 over Mississippi State 6:30 PM CT

This figures to be a dangerous game for Mississippi State coming off a nice win over Texas A&M that went down to the wire and with Alabama next on the schedule. Louisiana Tech picked up its sixth win last week and the program has played power five schools tough in recent years under Skip Holtz, going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 attempts including a competitive showing in Baton Rouge earlier this season.

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They trail UAB in Conference USA West with a long shot to catch them and with a bowl eligibility reached this is the biggest game left on the schedule. Last season Louisiana Tech lost 57-21 in this matchup but that was an early September game, not a contest tucked in-between huge SEC West affairs for Mississippi State as this timing should favor the heavy underdog to at least give a scare to the SEC squad in this game. The yardage in that game as well as a 2015 meeting between these programs was close and this is a lot of points to offer from a team that has been held to 31 or fewer points in six of seven FBS games this season and averaging only 22 points per game vs. FBS competition.

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Louisiana Tech offers a capable run defense allowing only 4.0 yards per rush on the season and opposing quarterbacks have completed fewer than 55 percent of passes against Louisiana Tech, with the defense allowing just 22 points per game on average. LSU only reached 38 points hosting Louisiana Tech while the underdog out-rushed LSU by 131 yards. LSU has proven to be an elite national contender at this point in the season yet Mississippi State is favored by five more points than LSU was hosting this matchup just over a month ago, with the gap between the spreads these teams faced in Baton Rouge being just 14 points. Louisiana Tech has won at Florida Atlantic and at North Texas this season as playing on the road hasn’t been a problem, actually 4-1 ATS on the road for the season.

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#156 UTEP +16 over UAB 6:30 PM CT

The Blazers are 4-0 in Conference USA to lead the West division, getting a comeback win over North Texas in a key game last week. UAB has outscored foes 127-35 in league play but the Blazers aren’t the same team away from home, including suffering a 47-24 defeat at Coastal Carolina earlier this season.

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UTEP is 0-7 after going 0-12 last season but the past four games have all been decided by nine or fewer points and the Miners have played close with two of the better Conference USA teams in the past two games, actually out-gaining Louisiana Tech on the road last week in a game that was tied well into the fourth quarter.

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Junior Brandon Jones provided a spark in his first action at quarterback and could get the nod this week as the Miners could be a threat to keep this game competitive. Despite being winless, UTEP has won ATS three games in a row as this isn’t likely going to be the nation’s worst team by season’s end.

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Don’t miss Nelly’s NCAA 2/3 offer Saturday – a winning package four straight Saturdays! Bobby Dalton has a 4-Game offer today coming off 10* wins Thursday & Friday to start the week. Maximum has released his 15* College Game of the Year riding a 36-23 start to the NCAA season. Point Train has a 5-unit offer in AAC action, while Big E has a 20* in the ACC, winning five of his last six 20* picks!