Free Pick | MLB | Aug. 13

#918 Toronto Blue Jays (White) -115 over Cleveland Guardians (McKenzie) 2:07 PM CT

This is a good buy-low price in a big bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays. Jose Berrios has struggled all season and he was hit hard last night in an ugly 8-0 loss for Toronto to start this series. It was a flat spot after two off days while being the first game back at home after a three-city road trip. Toronto has now dopped five of six, but they had scored at least three runs in six straight games until last night. The team has been in a bit of a slump at the plate but still owns a .766 team OPS for the season vs. right-handers and Toronto is 34-22 at home. The Guardians now lead the AL Central while riding six straight wins with dominant pitching results, allowing a combined total of eight runs in those games. Triston McKenzie is having a terrific season, but he looks like an overachiever as his ERA estimators are all about a run higher than his 3.16 ERA. He has had incredible fortune with a .226 BABIP and a nearly 80 percent strand rate. His numbers have been worse on the road, and he has been erratic of late as he has four scoreless outings in his last nine starts but also four starts in which he allowed four or more runs. He has not faced a playoff threat on the road since allowing six runs in Minnesota in June and only two of his last six road starts have been quality starts. Mitch White was a decent fill-in starter for the Dodgers, and he had a solid outing despite taking the loss in his Toronto debut. He has posted a 2.87 ERA since the All Star break and Cleveland has the second worst home run rate in MLB to take some risk away from White this afternoon. Toronto was a bigger favorite in May against McKenzie in Cleveland with Ross Stripling on the mound and last night the Blue Jays were priced around -160 to start this series even with Berrios being one of the worst AL pitchers this season as this is a discounted number on a team that still has a lot of potential.

Bobby Dalton is 12-2 in his last 14 MLB picks including another 3-0 sweep in last night’s Trips-2-Win offer. He has now won 12 of his last 13 Trips-2-Win 2/3 offers with the picks going 29-9!

Nelly’s was 2-0 in baseball yesterday and we have a 7* pick for Saturday’s schedule!