Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Aug. 1

Nelly’s is 6-1 in our last seven while on a 12-3, 80% run since July 13 in MLB picks as a terrific 2025 MLB season continues!

#963 Minnesota Twins (Ryan) +110 over Cleveland Guardians (Williams) 6:10 PM CT

The Twins have had a depressing week with Carlos Correa and Jhoan Duran dealt away. Joe Ryan was not traded however, and Ryan has been a consistently successful starter this season as one of the best pitchers in the American League. Ryan wasn’t his best in his last start but has allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 20 starts and his road ERA is 2.51 while his career ERA at Progressive Field is 1.46 in four starts. The trade deadline passing is likely a relief for both teams, with Cleveland also selling even while only three games out of a wild card position and the Guardians posting a winning month of July. Gavin Williams has a 3.51 ERA but his FIP is 4.57 in 21 starts and walks have been a huge problem with his 4.9 BB/9 among the highest walk rates of any regular starter in MLB. Minnesota beat Williams in Cleveland earlier this season and Minnesota should still have a capable lineup against right-handed pitching. Cleveland’s bullpen has better numbers but the difference with both teams coming off an off day is not likely enough to bridge the gap between Ryan and Williams, which is far larger than a simple ERA comparison suggests. After a tense few weeks with everyone on notice about possibly being traded, Minnesota could surprise with a capable team playing as a potential spoiler in many upcoming AL Central games in August.