Free Pick | MLB | Friday | May 23

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#952 Pittsburgh Pirates (Skenes) -125 over Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) 5:40 PM CT

Milwaukee was coy with its pitching plan yesterday as Aaron Civale came off the IL to give the Brewers four solid innings in a starting role, as the 2025 debut of Carlos Rodriguez came later in the game. Rodriguez barely held down the lead for the Brewers and Milwaukee got a big break as Pittsburgh’s momentum was zapped with a rain delay of nearly two hours in the sixth inning when the Pirates had two runners on and appeared poised to tie the game. Pittsburgh had an 11-6 edge in at-bats with runners in scoring position last night and the Brewers have used Trevor Megill in back-to-back days and four of the past five days as their closer is almost certainly unavailable Friday. Pittsburgh has Paul Skenes on the mound and Skenes is no longer getting overpriced to the extreme measure he was early in the season. Skenes has offered some concern with reduced velocity and strikeout counts relative to his amazing rookie season, but he is still pitching at a high level. Milwaukee’s lineup is one of the weakest in the NL and owns a .624 team OPS in the past four weeks, which levels the matchup with Pittsburgh’s lineup that has been near the bottom of the NL for the season with similar numbers. Freddy Peralta is the ace of the Milwaukee staff, but his FIP is more than a run higher than his 2.59 ERA and his K/9 is on pace to be a career worst. Peralta also has a .234 BABIP in his 10 starts this season alongside an 86 percent strand rate, with both figures well off his career averages. Peralta’s season is built on a dominant 0.75 ERA in home innings and mediocre results on the road. Peralta also has just two career wins in nine starts at PNC Park. Four of the last five starts for Skenes have been on the road vs. top NL contenders and he has still pitched well, as this should be his most favorable matchup in over a month.