Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | May 2

Check out our Game 7 pick in the NBA Playoffs – over 71% this postseason:

#957 Philadelphia Phillies (Painter) +110 over Miami Marlins (Meyer) 3:10 PM CT

The Phillies have had a miserable 13-19 start to the season with the worst run differential in MLB right now at -44. The Phillies recently fired Rob Thomson and it has had the immediate desired effect with the Phillies winning four games in a row under Don Mattingly. The past three wins have all been one-run results for some good fortune, but this is not a team that should be expected to finish at the bottom of the NL and the Phillies will likely remain a play-on team in the near future. Miami has gone only 15-17 as Atlanta has dominated the NL East so far. After winning back-to-back games in Los Angeles the Marlins lost 6-5 last night and it was a 6-1 game until late scoring in the final two innings for the Marlins. Philadelphia had far more at-bats with runners in scoring position and three of Miami’s five runs came with two outs. Philadelphia did use four relievers last night, but the Marlins covered more innings from relievers and the bullpen for the Marlins is struggling. Miami has a 6.62 bullpen ERA with a 1.58 WHIP over the past five games. Rookie Andrew Painter has a 5.25 ERA but a 3.34 FIP in 24 innings of work as he has looked like a capable option to continue to make starts and his pedigree as a 2021 1st round pick suggests great potential. Max Meyer has good numbers in 30 innings for Miami but compared to the past two seasons it is difficult to believe it is a sustainable pace. Over the past five games the Phillies are batting .254 vs. right-handers compared to .185 for Miami with Philadelphia having a scoring edge as well. The recent momentum for Philadelphia can continue into the weekend and by season’s end, Miami being this significant of a favorite over the Phillies could look out of place. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck. We are 13-5 in the NBA postseason – check out our Game 7 pick tonight.