Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | May 4

Nelly’s is on a 10-3 run in MLB while hitting 60% in the 2024 season!

#977 Baltimore Orioles (Means) -110 over Cincinnati Reds (Abbott) 5:40 PM CT

Against left-handed pitching this season the Orioles have hit .274 while the Reds have hit .209. Baltimore shut out Cincinnati 3-0 yesterday with a 9-2 edge in hits and Cincinnati had to use five pitchers last night. Andrew Abbott has a 3.27 ERA but with a 4.56 FIP and his strikeout counts that were tremendous in the minors and good last season haven’t translated this season, with a 7.4 K/9 through 33 innings. The Reds have a 4.76 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games as well, in contrast to Baltimore’s 1.87 bullpen ERA. John Means will be making his first start of 2023 after very limited innings the past two seasons. He was a reliable starter in 2019 and 2021 and Cincinnati’s offense is struggling right now, held to four or fewer runs in six of the past eight games.  Baltimore owns an 8-4 record vs. left-handed starters this season and these teams are 29 runs apart in scoring differential. Baltimore is 9-4 on the road and still looks like one of baseball’s best teams despite catching modest pricing on Saturday.