Free Pick Monday, Aug. 1

Nelly’s has a TOTAL for Monday night MLB as we look to start 1-0 in August.

Bobby Dalton closed July at 25-16 for a great month! Join him for August at a discount!

Free Pick Monday: #919 Arizona Diamondbacks (Davies) +140 over Cleveland Guardians (Quantrill) 6:10 PM CT

Cleveland could be a team to fade Monday as this is the first home game since the All Star break with a taxing 11-game road trip concluding yesterday with a big win over Shane McClanahan. Cleveland is 10-9 behind Cal Quantrill but he lives dangerously allowing 9.2 hits per nine. His xFIP is 4.65 despite a more respectable ERA at 3.97 and his CSW% is among the lowest of all American League starters at 24.0 percent, while dropping to 23.5 percent in the past month. Quantrill has allowed three or more runs in four of his past six starts. Zach Davies has a solid 27.4 percent CSW% this season, and he had a great month of June with a 2.56 ERA before missing July with a shoulder injury. He can be counted on for a solid return outing and his risk of home runs allowed will be minimized in this matchup with Cleveland featuring the third worst home run rate in MLB. Arizona won five of six out of the break with great offensive numbers before a tough series in Atlanta over the weekend. Arizona lost all three games and was outscored 12-4 but the Diamondbacks had more at-bats with runners in scoring position in each of those three games vs. the Braves. Arizona has a 2.54 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games and Cleveland had a bullpen game yesterday as the Diamondbacks should be in better shape in the late innings. These teams are only 50 runs apart in scoring differential despite the Guardians being a serious playoff threat while Arizona is a last place NL West squad and this is an appealing underdog price to fade Quantrill, who continues to beat his ERA estimators with great fortune.

Football starts this week with the NFL Hall of Fame Game!

Green Sheet Issue #5 will be out this week – it was delayed with some issues we had with our website transition.