Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | March 9

Free Pick Thursday: #787 Cal Poly SLO +10.5 over UC Santa Barbara 8:00 PM CT

Cal Poly scored a major upset on Tuesday night to start the Big West tournament, winning by 20 as a 10-point underdog against Long Beach State. Some might expect a crash landing after such a big win, but this has been a more competitive team than the brutal 1-18 record in Big West play suggests. Cal Poly shot 50% from 3-point range in win over Long Beach State despite being below 30% on season but having a second game in this building while it is the first game for #2 seed UC Santa Barbara could be an advantage. UCSB was a below average team in most defensive categories in the Big West and these team are less than a point apart in defensive scoring average in conference play. UCSB is 8-4 in the past 12 games but six of those wins came by 10 or fewer points while 12 of the 18 losses in Big West play for Cal Poly came by 10 or fewer points including two overtime results. Only once in the past eight games has Cal Poly lost by more than 11 points. Cal Poly also has played tough against UCSB losing by 5 and 6 in the regular season holding the Gauchos to 62 and 68 points. These are both slow pace tempo teams making the underdog points more valuable and in the regular season wins for UCSB they had a 55-24 edge in free throw attempts despite the close final scores. Cal Poly gets a 48-hour turnaround after the big upset Tuesday unlike most teams in that situation this week and another competitive result is possible for the Mustangs in Henderson.

Nelly’s is on a 20-10 run the past 13 days. Dalton is on a 30-20 run the past 21 days and Big E is on a 75% run in conference tournament picks! Check out options for Thursday or join for March Madness!