Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Oct. 18

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#278 LA Rams -12.5 over Arizona 3:05 PM CT

Sean McVay is 16-3 S/U & 15-4 ATS vs. the Cardinals since taking over the Rams in 2017. The Rams are on a short week after hosting Buffalo on Monday as a grueling early season schedule continues, even if the expected level opposition takes a step down this week. In McVay’s 16 wins vs. Arizona the Rams have been a double-digit favorite only three times and just once since 2018, last season’s Week 18 home meeting. The Rams have fared well off a loss under McVay and with the preseason favorites now just 2-3, with the 49ers pacing the NFC West at 5-0, this is a critical game to not miss in. The Rams have a great schedule in the next month to climb closer, and three defeats have come against top competition as the Rams shouldn’t be downgraded despite the record. Arizona is 1-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog going back to 2023 though this will Mike LaFleur’s first opportunity. Beating the Chargers in Week 1 no longer carries much value and allowing the Rams offense to face the league’s worst scoring defense could get ugly as this may be a situation where the heavy favorite price is justified. NFL favorites of 12 or more are 16-8 ATS since the start of last season and those teams at home off a S/U loss are 13-7 ATS since 2021.