Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | May 1

Nelly’s is having a great week – going 2-0 each of the past three days overall with a 3-0 NBA run and a 3-0 MLB run!

We’re actually on a 5-0 MLB run since Saturday while on an amazing 16-3 run since April 9 for a tremendously profitable start to the season.

Join us for May Baseball for just $199 – just over $6 per day – or check out tonight’s pick for $20!

#968 Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios) -110 over Boston Red Sox (Houck) 6:07 PM CT

Boston is one of the top scoring teams in baseball and the Red Sox still scored six runs in yesterday’s loss, now having scored at least three runs in 12 consecutive games. Boston is only 17-15 this season however as the pitching staff has struggled. Tanner Houck has been at the forefront of those problems. Houck had a 3.12 ERA In 30 starts last season providing to be a reliable option in the rotation. This year he has a 7.58 ERA and Boston has lost in five of his six starts. Houck did have a good start in a loss to Toronto in early April but that was a home start, and Houck has a 2.13 ERA at home and an 11.65 ERA on the road with opponents slugging .645 against him away from Fenway Park. Toronto is 9-6 at home and the Blue Jays are looking to bounce back with a tough 2-8 stretch to close April. While he has been erratic in much of his time with Toronto, Joe Berrios is having a decent 2025 so far following a good 2024 season. While it hasn’t been the case so far in the small sample in 2025, Berrios has typically had much stronger splits at home including going 28-14 in decisions with a 3.50 ERA in 58 starts at the Rogers Centre. A comeback win battling back from being down 6-0 yesterday might be the spark the Blue Jays need to play well in early May after slipping below .500 in the last week. Despite the extra-innings final, the Blue Jays outhit the Red Sox 10-7 on Wednesday and new acquisition Eric Lauer helped the bullpen considerably by getting through four innings. Boston used its top three relievers yesterday to leave some strain heading into the final game of this road trip and Boston’s pitching staff has allowed the third most runs in the American League so far this season with Houck unlikely to improve those numbers.