Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | May 21

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#959 Arizona Diamondbacks (Burnes) +120 over Los Angeles Dodgers (May) 9:10 PM CT

The Dodgers slipped past Arizona last night as a 1-1 game through nine innings wound up as a 4-3 win for Los Angeles, after Arizona won 9-5 at Dodger Stadium Monday to open the series. The Dodgers lead the NL West, while Arizona is in fourth place, but only four games separate these teams. Arizona has a 13-10 road record, and the Diamondbacks have played well in the ultra-tough NL West with a 7-5 division record so far, and only two of those wins were against the Rockies. The Dodgers remain the team to beat in the NL, but Los Angeles is .500 so far in May and just a modest 22-19 since an 8-0 start to the season. It is hard to believe that Dustin May has only 236 innings in his career in the regular season as he has been a fixture on the Los Angeles pitching staff since 2019. After missing all of 2024, May’s comeback has provided marginal results so far with a 4.43 ERA and an 8.2 K/9, well below his best stretches. Arizona beat May on May 10, and May has allowed 20 runs and 33 hits in his last five starts with the Dodgers 1-4 in those games. Corbin Burnes provides a high-ceiling starter for Arizona with Burnes being one of MLB’s best starters in recent years with remarkable consistency. His strikeout rate is below his best seasons so far in 2025, but Burnes has good road splits even while pitching against some of MLB’s best teams on the road already this season. His career track record at Dodger Stadium offers some concern but it is a very small sample size. With both teams having extended bullpen efforts last night, Burnes is a far more reliable option to provide a deep outing having pitched at least six innings in five of his last six starts. Both teams have endured disastrous bullpen results in recent games as the advantage in the starting role could prove pivotal to wrap up this series before the Dodgers head to New York and Arizona heads to St. Louis. While the Dodgers have elite potential at the plate, in the past five games Arizona has hit .266 while scoring 6.4 runs per nine vs. right-handers compared to the Dodgers batting .221 in that timeframe. Los Angeles has been held to four or fewer runs five times in the past 10 games while Arizona has scored at least six runs in five of the past seven games. This is an appealing underdog price on Burnes for a Diamondbacks team that has proven it can handle the Dodgers, going 3-3 this season and 8-7 in the past 15 meetings.