Free Pick | MLB | Friday | July 18

Join Nelly’s for 2nd Half Baseball following a strong 1st Half of the season!

#961 Baltimore Orioles (Morton) +110 over Tampa Bay Rays (Bradley) 6:35 PM CT

Charlie Morton has been a disappointment as a key pick-up to lead the starting rotation for the Orioles this season. While Morton has marginal numbers in 2025, his FIP is significantly lower than his 5.18 ERA and since June 1 Morton has a 2.72 ERA with a 10.7 K/9 while going 4-0 in decisions. The Orioles are likely to be sellers at the break and Morton could be among those moved. The Orioles did have a winning month of June and are 6-5 in July as the team hasn’t mailed in the season and is just 7.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, though they would need to pass seven teams in the race. Baltimore has a talented offense and could be a threat to have success in the short term out of the break. The Rays are much closer to an AL playoff position, but it is hard to envision the Rays being aggressive at the trade deadline. 24-year-old Taj Bradley has seen his results go in the other direction in recent weeks and he was shelled against the Orioles in June, allowing seven runs while getting four outs, though the Rays came back and won that game. Bradley has a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts with a strikeout-to-walk ratio below 2:1. The Tampa Bay bullpen has been in a rough patch in recent weeks including a 5.40 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP in the past 10 games while a 2-8 run before the break with the offense slumping doesn’t put Tampa Bay in a great position to start the 2nd half strong. Baltimore is 4-3 vs. Tampa Bay on the season and the Orioles are attractively priced Friday night with a more proven starting pitcher.