Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | July 23

Nelly’s is 5-1 in our last six in MLB – play Wednesday night in AL action or join for August!

#924 Arizona Diamondbacks (Pfaadt) –115 over Houston Astros (Walter) 2:40 PM CT

Brandon Walter has a solid 3.66 ERA but the Astros are just 1-4 in his last five starts and Walter has a 4.97 ERA in that five-start run. His command has been excellent but while Walter has fewer than 70 MLB innings to his name, he is 28 and a former 26th round pick of Boston on a journeyman arc and not a top prospect that has jumped through the Astros system. Houston has won three in a row to shake off a slide surrounding the All-Star Break as Houston has started to face some pressure in the AL West race with Seattle and Texas playing well. Houston’s bullpen used seven relievers in Sunday’s extra-innings loss to the Mariners and Houston has had to use top bullpen options the past three days as well as the workload has been significant heading into this afternoon game. Arizona’s bullpen has been a weak spot all season but in the past 10 games the bullpens for these teams have had similar numbers. Arizona is 4-2 in the past six games and while the Diamondbacks are likely to move a few players in the coming days this remains a formidable offensive team that has posted 5.2 runs per nine in the past 10 games. Brandon Pfaadt has 10 wins this season and he owns a 3.51 FIP since early June with a nice seven start run. Pfaadt has an extreme contrast between his home and road splits this season as he has been a far better pitcher at home with only three home runs allowed in over 53 innings. Arizona went 2-12 with runners in scoring position last night for plenty of missed opportunities in the 3-1 defeat and Houston’s bullpen edge should be downgraded Wednesday given the pitch counts this week for the unit.