Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | Aug. 9

Nelly’s is on a 16-6 MLB run since July 13 – we are also 12-4 on Saturdays!

#974 Minnesota Twins (Ober) +115 over Kansas City Royals (Cameron) 6:10 PM CT

The Twins had a lot of negative headlines with the fire sale at the trade deadline, but the pitching staff remains capable, and the new-look lineup has offered some promise. The Twins are 31-24 at Target Field for the season and Bailey Ober has more potential than his season line suggests. Ober struggled before hitting the IL in June to erase good returns from the first two months of the season. His first start back was a solid outing last week and while his home run rate has been extremely high this season, the Royals have the third fewest home runs in MLB this season. After a good July the Royals are 3-4 on the current road trip with 37 runs allowed. Kansas City has much worse recent bullpen splits than the solid season average for the team while rookie Noah Cameron has a FIP more than a run higher than his 2.68 ERA in 15 starts. The Twins have hit lefthanded pitching with success in recent games including averaging 5.8 runs per nine in the past 10 games while for the season Kansas City is one of baseball’s least successful lineups vs. right-handers, averaging just 3.8 runs per nine. Even with Seth Lugo starting the Royals needed a significant bullpen workload last night as the Twins had 14 hits and 13 at-bats with runners in scoring position, posting a third straight win.