Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | March 5

Nelly’s has a 7* top play tonight – 67% this season on 7* picks and 67% so far in March college basketball!

#779 South Florida -6.5 over Memphis 8:00 PM CT

South Florida has a seven-game winning streak to lead the AAC at 13-3. The Bulls have a 7-1 AAC road record this season and the only loss came by one-point in late January. The two home losses for South Florida in conference play both came in overtime and all five non-conference defeats came against quality teams away from home. South Florida has a profile that will give them a chance to be an at-large NCAA Tournament team, but they cannot afford a third loss outside the nation’s top 100. South Florida cruised past Memphis in mid-February with an 87-66 home win and while the recent revenge spot might be alluring for a home underdog in some situations, this is a Tigers team that hasn’t offered much fight lately. Normally a top AAC contender and an NCAA Tournament candidate, Memphis has lost six in a row to slide to 12-17 for the season and 7-9 in AAC play. That includes four home losses this season and on the current losing streak the average defeat margin is more than 14 points per game. South Florida is the #1 defense in the AAC but the gap between these teams is most dramatic on offense. Memphis has the worst turnover rate in the conference and struggles with rebounding while rarely getting to the free throw line. In the first meeting South Florida only shot 30 percent from 3-point range but still led by as many as 23 points in the second half while posting a 52-39 edge on the boards. Memphis is still one of the highest profile teams in the AAC as this is a matchup that will always be alluring for visiting foes, particularly with Memphis being on a 7-2 S/U run in this series. This is a big adjustment from four games ago as South Florida was -8.5 at home, but the Tigers have shown no signs of waking up from an 0-6 S/U and 0-6 ATS slide in a lost season for Penny Hardaway. In contrast, the Bulls have a lot at stake the next two weeks looking for the program’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 2012 as the program has renewed itself with a breakthrough season after the extremely challenging situation with Amir Abdur-Rahim’s tragic death forcing the program to now have four head coaches in four seasons.