Free Pick | MLB | Friday | April 24

Nelly’s is on a roll in the NBA with an 8-1 start to the postseason!

#974 Cincinnati Reds (Abbott) +115 over Detroit Tigers (Valdez) 5:40 PM CT

While the season splits are similar for these lineups against left-handed pitching, in the past five games the Reds have scored 7.2 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching for a big recent boost. Detroit played a tense game on Thursday, getting a 5-4 win hosting Milwaukee ahead of this series while needing to use three key relievers even in a Tarik Skubal start. Cincinnati had Thursday off for an advantage ahead of this series and the Reds have won three series in a row with a 7-2 run in the past nine games. Cincinnati has allowed four or fewer runs in seven of those nine games and Andrew Abbott has pitched better than his 5.84 ERA suggests. Abbott has a more respectable 4.32 FIP in five starts and he was an All-Star last season. So far this season he has allowed a .349 BABIP for an elevated result that will come down as the sample size grows. Abbott had a 2.39 ERA at home last season, and this can be a tough ballpark for opposing pitchers. Framber Valdez was signed by the Tigers to have another top option in the rotation, and he has pitched well in 30 innings with Detroit for a 3.30 ERA. His strikeout rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career, as is his groundball rate, and his current home run rate that is exceptionally low is not likely to last. Valdez has also never pitched at the Great American Ballpark, typically a strong hitting field. Cincinnati has a negative run differential this season with a 16-9 record, but the bullpen has been outstanding to help the Reds win many close games. In a pairing of similar caliber starters, the late innings should favor Cincinnati coming off an off day, while the Detroit bullpen has a 7.94 ERA with a 2.24 WHIP in the past five games.