Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | May 7

 Posted on May 7, 2026 by

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Nelly’s is 4-1 the past five days in MLB action – Bobby Dalton is 8-3 in his last 11 – check out MLB action Thursday:

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#903 Pittsburgh Pirates (Keller) +105 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Gallen) 2:40 PM CT

Pittsburgh and Arizona have traded shutouts the past two days to start this series. The Pirates have scored just once in those games but for the season, Pittsburgh has scored 5.0 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching with an even better scoring average while batting .263 over the past 10 games, while batting .285 with 6.8 runs per nine in the past five games. The shutout loss Tuesday came vs. a left-hander but Arizona will start right-handed Zac Gallen Thursday afternoon. Gallen was a Cy Young contender in 2022 and 2023, but he didn’t have a good 2025 season, and his numbers have been alarming this season. Gallen has a career 9.4 K/9 but this season his K/9 is only 5.6. Gallen has a marginal 4.45 ERA in just over 32 innings this season even with what would be a career low HR/9. Gallen has been a much stronger pitcher at home this season and in his career, though he had a marginal 4.56 ERA in nearly 99 home innings last season and he has only one quality start at home in 2026. Arizona has lost five of the past six games with the nine-run outburst on Tuesday an outlier performance. In the past five games Arizona has been batting just .194 as a team vs. right-handed pitching. Mitch Keller pitched much better than his 6-15 win/loss record indicated last season and with better support this season he is on pace for a career year. Keller has a 2.85 ERA with a 2.89 FIP and he has pitched better on the road than at home. The Pirates should be a threat to win Thursday afternoon at an appealing price.

New arrivals

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