Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | June 4

Nelly’s is off to a 2-1 start to June – we had a winning MLB June in 2025!

#912 Minnesota Twins (Morris) +105 over Kansas City Royals (Lugo) 6:10 PM CT

The Twins had a tough day Wednesday losing 8-0 at home to the White Sox. Minnesota did win the first two games of that series, and the Twins are 17-15 at home on the season. While the lineup was shutout yesterday, the Twins have scored five or more runs nine times in the past 17 games and over the past five games Minnesota is batting .291 with 6.4 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching. The Royals have hit just .212 in that span vs. right-handers while Kansas City is just 9-21 in road games. The Royals are just 2-7 in the past nine games even with a win on Wednesday in Cincinnati. Kansas City has featured one of the worst bullpens in MLB this season and the Royals have allowed at least four runs in eight of the past 10 games. Seth Lugo has a 3.55 ERA this season but after a 1.7 HR/9 in 2025, Lugo has a 0.5 HR/9 in 12 starts this season. Lugo had a nice April but in May his ERA was 4.59 and, in his career, he owns a 7.29 ERA at Target Field. Kansas City has a 7.96 bullpen ERA with a 2.15 WHIP in the past 10 games as the late innings may continue to be a challenge. Rookie Andrew Morris has mostly pitched out of the bullpen for the Twins and he won’t be much more than an opener on Thursday. This will likely be a true bullpen game for the Twins as there isn’t an obvious candidate for a primary role but that should allow for favorable pitching matchups most of the way against a struggling Kansas City lineup.