Free Pick | MLB | Weds. | June 17

Nelly’s has had two rainouts in the past three days but we are 6-1 since June 10th for a hot early June run on the diamond.

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#953/954 OVER 9 Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at Philadelphia Phillies (Painter) 12:05 PM CT

The Phillies have been a disappointing offensive team this season given the star power in the lineup, but the recent returns offer some promise as the Phillies have scored five or more runs six times in the past nine games, including totaling 15 runs the past two days in this series for back-to-back wins. In the past five games the Phillies have scored 6.3 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching and Sandy Alcantara hasn’t had a lot of success in this ballpark with a 4.76 career ERA at Citizens, while he is 6-11 in career decisions vs. the Phillies. Alcantara hasn’t been the same pitcher since his Cy Young season in 2022 and this season he has an average 4.25 ERA while his K/9 of just 6.6 is the lowest of his career. Alcantara has this season and throughout his career been a much stronger pitcher at home and his road ERA in 2026 is 5.24 with opponents batting .299. The Miami bullpen has been a strength this season, but three relievers were needed yesterday ahead of a quick turnaround to today’s early start contest. The Philadelphia bullpen has a marginal 4.82 ERA in the past five games despite the team allowing only two runs so far in this series. Andrew Painter has greatly struggled for the Phillies, and he owns a 6.43 ERA on the season with 12 home runs allowed in just 63 innings of work. Painter has been a bit better in his home innings but still has a 5.91 ERA in Philadelphia while his ERA in June so far is 10.24. He took a loss against the Marlins in May and Miami has been a productive offensive team of late with a .262 team average and 4.7 runs per nine in the past 10 games even after being mostly shut down the past two days. The Marlins are a combined 1-17 the past two days with runners in scoring position as there have been opportunities and Painter is not the same caliber starter compared to Jesus Luzardo and Zach Wheeler. Conditions for this day game will also favor offense with a steady wind moving to left field and warm mid-day conditions in Philadelphia.

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