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#953/954 UNDER 9.5 Pittsburgh Pirates (Keller) at Washington Nationals (Griffin) 5:45 PM CT

These are both strong ‘over’ teams for the season but that means a rather high total even in a stretch where neither offense has been at its best. The Pirates have scored just 2.6 runs per nine vs. left-handers in the past five games and for the season Pittsburgh is just 5-16 vs. left-handed starters. Washington in contrast is much better offensively vs. left-handers as neither lineup will face their preferred side Saturday. Washington just won four of six on its last road trip and the pitching staff allowed four or fewer runs in five of those six games. Foster Griffin is having a breakout season in his first year back from Japan and he has impressed with a 2.93 ERA and a solid strikeout rate for a big improvement from his first MLB appearances in 2020 and 2022. Griffin has delivered five straight starts of at least five innings with only one run allowed as since June 1st, he has a 1.15 ERA with a 9.5 K/9. Mitch Keller has been a stable option in the Pittsburgh rotation and his FIP of 4.08 looks more realistic than his 4.87 ERA. Keller has preferable road splits this season and while he had a disappointing June, the matchups played a role, facing the Braves, Athletics, and Dodgers in consecutive starts. Both teams have good bullpen splits in the past five games with Pittsburgh allowing just one run yesterday, while Washington had an off day. Conditions in D.C. will be quite warm but with minimal wind impact and less humidity than in other parts of the country tonight, yet the ‘over’ trends for both teams keeps tonight’s total elevated even in a solid starting pitching pairing.