Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | July 4

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#921 Tampa Bay Rays (Rasmussen) EVEN over Houston Astros (Brown) 6:10 PM CT

Tampa Bay has won nine games in a row, and the pitching staff has not allowed more than four runs in any of those games. Houston managed only three hits last night and Drew Rasmussen has pitched at a high level this season, including a dominant run since June 1st, with a 0.82 ERA and a 1.78 FIP, allowing just 16 hits and three runs in 33 innings of work. The bullpen for the Rays has been erratic on the season, but the unit is in great recent form with a 1.72 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP in the past five games. The Rays don’t have an overwhelming offense but vs. right-handed pitching Tampa Bay is batting .277 with 4.8 runs per nine in the past five games, in contrast to the Astros batting just .199. Houston is only 21-24 at home this season and while the Rays are only a .500 road team, they have won four in a row on this road trip. Hunter Brown had a terrific 2025 season, but he has made just five starts in 2026 and only three since March as he was on the IL for all of April and May. Brown has allowed nine hits in nine innings in his past two starts and it may take some time for him to find his form. Houston has scored four or fewer runs in six of the past nine games and the AL leaders are wroth a look at near-even pricing going for 10 straight wins.