Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Aug. 21

Nelly’s is on a 12-6 MLB run as another great August Baseball run is underway!

#922 Boston Red Sox (Gray) -1.5 +125 over San Francisco Giants (Webb) 6:10 PM CT

Not surprisingly Boston’s historic winning pace has stalled but the offense has posted four or more runs in seven of the past eight games. The Red Sox are batting .288 with 5.3 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching. San Francisco’s lineup continues to disappoint with 3.8 runs per nine in the past 10 games. The Giants scored a combined total of four runs in the first series on this road trip and San Francisco has topped three runs just three times in the past 10 games with two of those instances vs. the challenged Rockies pitching staff. Logan Webb remains a solid starting option, but his current 7.1 K/9 would be the worst of his career. Webb has a career 3.91 road ERA as his success has been built almost entirely by pitching most of his innings in favorable conditions in San Francisco where his ERA is nearly a full run lower. San Francisco has a 4.25 bullpen ERA for the season in contrast to Boston’s elite 2.95 bullpen ERA. Sonny Gray has been a consistent force in the rotation for the Red Sox with a 15-3 record and a 2.65 ERA. Gray rarely allows home runs and has excellent command and in seven of his last 10 starts he has allowed one or zero runs while pitching at least six innings in nine of those 10 starts. Six of San Francisco’s last seven losses have come by at least two runs, and the bullpen is in rough shape getting 11 combined innings from starters in the last series. 14 of Boston’s last 17 wins have come by two or more runs as the run line is worth a look in what some might view as an even starting pitching matchup.