Free Pick | MLB | Monday | Aug. 24

Nelly’s is on a terrific 15-6 MLB run with three straight winning weeks to add to a great August history!

#956 San Diego Padres (Rays) -105 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Ashcraft) 8:40 PM CT

San Diego holds the final wild card spot in the National League following a sweep of Minnesota over the weekend. The Padres are 15-6 in August while going 13-2 at home since the All-Star Break. Pittsburgh was swept in Los Angeles on the first leg of this west coast trip and while it has been a breakthrough season for the Pirates on offense overall, the lineup has cooled, now held to four or fewer runs in each of the team’s past five games. Pittsburgh is 29-37 in road games and 12-29 vs. left-handed starters. Robbie Ray has posted a 3.20 ERA this season even while not matching the typical strikeout levels of most of his career. Since July 1 his ERA is 2.79 and he has pitched well in three consecutive Petco Park outings, including his last start while pitching for the Giants before the trade. Braxton Ashcraft has been Pittsburgh best starter this season with a 9.6 K/9 and a 3.68 ERA. He has been less reliable in recent weeks with a 4.83 ERA in his last seven starts and nine home runs allowed. The bullpen advantage for the Padres in both the season and recent splits is substantial and while the Pirates are a top five team wOBA squad for the season, Pittsburgh is 26th since August 1 while the Padres have featured a top five offense. Over the past five games the Pirates have hit .150 with 1.6 runs per nine vs. left-handers while the Padres are scoring 5.5 runs per nine vs. right-handers as San Diego’s momentum can carry into the new week, even vs. one of the NL’s better starters this season.