Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Sep. 13

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#455 Cleveland Browns +9 over Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 PM CT

Home favorites of 7 or more points in Week 1 are just 9-13-1 against the spread since 2015. Week 1 lines are built on incomplete information with no in-season film, uncertain chemistry, unclear roles, and not surprisingly the market has a documented tendency to overprice big favorites in these spots. With Jacksonville sitting at -9 to -9.5, this line falls squarely in that historically vulnerable range. Jacksonville’s 13-4 breakthrough under first-year coach Liam Coen was genuinely one of the best turnaround stories in the league, and Trevor Lawrence looked like an entirely different quarterback in his system. But that success naturally raises the price of backing Jacksonville. Cleveland’s own Week 1 history is far worse in the raw numbers going 3-23-1 S/U in 27 years as a Week 1 team but the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 openers, as Cleveland has found ways to keep these specific games competitive against the number as a team that usually has a pessimistic season forecast. The obvious concern is Deshaun Watson, making his first start since October 2024 after one of the more dramatic career collapses in recent NFL memory. New head coach Todd Monken presumably won’t ask him to do too much, and a Cleveland team built to lean on defense and limit mistakes fits the profile of a team that can hang around even without much offensive juice. With a low total both sides expect a grinding, low-scoring affair rather than a Jacksonville blowout. Between the historically shaky record for large Week 1 home favorites and Cleveland’s recent ATS success in openers, this line looks priced more for Jacksonville’s 2025 breakout than for Week 1 reality.