Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Sep. 15

Nelly’s has posted back-to-back MLB wins the past two days while profitable in 5 of the past 6 weeks!

#979 Baltimore Orioles (Baz) + over New York Mets (Manaea) 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore held off the Mets 2-1 last night in a game that didn’t need to be that close, as the Orioles went just 1-9 with runners in scoring position while having three times as many at-bats with runners in scoring position as the Mets in that game. Baltimore remains alive in the AL Wild card race sitting three games out of the final spot but also needing to pass three teams. It has been a tough 4-9 September following winning months of July and August, but the Orioles are 4-3 in the past seven games and Baltimore has scored five or more runs six times this month. Shane Baz has a 6-15 win/loss record but a 3.54 FIP. In his last 20 starts his ERA is 3.52 with a 3.17 FIP with only eight home runs allowed. The Orioles have far better recent bullpen splits with a 10-game ERA of 3.22 compared with the Mets holding a 5.50 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP for relievers. Sean Manaea has allowed four or more runs in five consecutive starts as he has not been able to match his past success. His Citi Field ERA is 4.84, and his ERA is 5.09 since the All-Star Break with opponents batting .280 against him. The Mets have had a few high-scoring outcomes in the last week, but New York has just one run the past two days while in the past five games Baltimore is batting .364 with 10.6 runs per nine vs. left-handed pitching.