Point Train Free Pick | Nov. 7

POINT TRAIN NCAAF
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina – 1:00PM ET
PICK: COASTAL CAROLINA -6.5
RATING: Free Pick

• This is an old-school efficiency handicap. Old Dominion’s offense is one of the worst in the country at 4.26 yards per play (dead last or near it in multiple efficiency metrics) and is averaging just 16.3 points per game. Coastal Carolina sits at a perfectly average 5.86 YPPL and 26.8 PPG while playing at home.

• Common-opponent numbers favor the Chanticleers. Coastal beat Georgia State 31-20; Old Dominion lost to the same Panthers 10-42 and was outgained badly. Coastal beat Marshall 27-21; ODU lost to Marshall 23-36. Against Georgia Southern both teams lost, but the underlying yards-per-play gap still favors Coastal.

• Old Dominion has been shut out or held to single digits in multiple games this season and ranks near the bottom nationally in offensive success rate, first downs, and yards per game (268). Coastal’s defense is not elite, but it doesn’t need to be against an offense that consistently fails to sustain drives.

• QB Deuce Bailey has been the difference-maker for Coastal (nearly 1,950 passing yards and 19 TDs). ODU’s quarterback play and offensive line have been a mess all year, with high sack totals, fumbles, and an inability to run the ball effectively (2.7 yards per rush).

• Situational spot: Coastal is at home for Homecoming coming off a solid road win at Georgia State. ODU is 1-8 ATS on the season and has lost three straight, including a shutout at Louisiana Tech

• Bottom line: we have Coastal favored by roughly a touchdown on a neutral field before factoring in the home field and ODU’s historically bad offense. Getting -6.5 with the better efficiency team at home is the play.