Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Aug. 28

Nelly’s Baseball is on a red hot late August run going 18-7 in our last 25 picks!

#957/958 OVER 7 Pittsburgh Pirates (Jones) at St. Louis Cardinals (Mathews) 7:15 PM CT

It has been a low-scoring run for the Pirates in the past week, but the last road trip came in pitching ballparks in San Diego and Los Angeles, often facing top tier starters from two NL contenders. The Pirates are still one of the top scoring teams for the season, and this should be a favorable matchup for the lineup to bounce back. St. Louis used six pitchers yesterday and the Cardinals have a 7.59 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games. Quinn Matthews had big strikeout counts in his minor league climb but in 15 MLB innings his K/9 is just 8.4 with a 4.5 BB/9. His ERA is 6.43 and while Matthews has future promise, he can’t expect to have immediate success. Jared Jones has provided a 4.76 ERA in 15 starts after missing all of 2025. Jones has worse home splits this season and a 7.88 ERA so far in August. St. Louis pitching has allowed five or more runs in each of the past eight games and the recent low-scoring splits for the Pirates are matchup driven. Neither starter should be counted on for a long outing and overall, these have been unreliable bullpens on the season.