Free Pick | MLB | Friday | July 11

Nelly’s is 3-0 the past three Fridays in MLB picks as a strong first half enters the final series before the All-Star Break.

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#929 Arizona Diamondbacks (Nelson) -115 over Los Angeles Angels (Anderson) 8:38 PM CT

Arizona went 1-10 with runners in scoring position last night as they added just one run to an early 2-0 lead and wound up losing 4-3 to split a four-game series in San Diego. The Diamondbacks are sitting at 46-48 just a series away from the All-Star Break, buried in fourth place in the NL West for grim prospects for a team that was in the 2023 World Series and expected to contend this season. The good news is that the Arizona bullpen that has struggled all season has turned a corner and has a 1.82 ERA in the past 10 games. The bullpen for the Angels has a 4.95 ERA in that span with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP for the season. Wild card hopes for the Angels are also fading with a 2-5 run over the past two series and Los Angeles received a total of fewer than 11 innings combined from its starters the past three games to put strain on the bullpen heading into this series. Tyler Anderson has been a marginal starter this season, unable to match the success he had in 2022 or 2024. Anderson has been much better in his Anaheim starts, but his ERA is 5.55 since June 1 and the Angels have lost four of his last six starts. Arizona has scored 5.2 runs per nine this season on the road vs. left-handers and Diamondbacks pitching has allowed four or fewer runs in six straight games. Ryne Nelson has been used in a variety of roles this season with solid results, including allowing just five combined earned runs in five straight starting efforts since June 13. While these teams have similar overall records, Arizona sits 71 runs better than the Angels in season run differential.