Free Pick | MLB | Friday | May 10

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#958 Milwaukee Brewers (Gasser) -115 over St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) 7:10 PM CT

The pitching plan for Milwaukee Friday isn’t perfectly clear but we know what we’re getting with Lance Lynn and the Cardinals on the mound. Lynn has delivered a nice career since starting with the Cardinals in 2011 but last season was one of his worst MLB seasons and in 2024 is strikeout numbers are his worst since 2017 while also featuring one of the highest walk rates of his career. Somehow his ERA is only 3.28 this season but with a FIP of 4.57 that looks more realistic. Lynn does have good career numbers in Milwaukee, but the Brewers are 4-0 in this series in 2024 and 9-1 in the past 10 meetings going back to last fall. The Brewers are drawing a near-even price at home against the last place Cardinals with a difference in run differential of 66 runs between these teams. St. Louis has lost five straight games and Robert Gasser looks likely to get the call for Milwaukee on the mound. This will be Gasser’s MLB debut, but he had a tremendous AAA season last year and has posted big strikeout numbers in his minor league career. The Cardinals have hit .184 with a .571 team OPS vs. left-handers this season and the lineup is now without Willson Contreras who has been by far the team’s best hitter as the only player on the roster with an OPS above .750.