Free Pick | MLB | Monday, Aug. 9

Nelly’s split last night and has a 2-for-1 offer for Tuesday night looking to go 2-0.

Bobby Dalton is 6-0 the past three days and 20 games above .500 the past two months for a huge MLB season!

FREE PICK TUESDAY: #915/916 OVER 8.5 Toronto Blue Jays (Manoah) at Baltimore Orioles (Bradish) 6:05 PM CT

Alek Manoah is a very promising young starter but he has been a huge overachiever this season. His xFIP is 3.91 next to his 2.45 ERA and his CSW% is 27.4 percent for the season and just 25.9 percent in the last month. He did have a great start vs. the Orioles in June but his numbers have gone in the wrong direction in the past several weeks, going 4-4 with a 3.51 ERA in his last nine starts despite finding his valuation growing in the marketplace. Just looking at ERA this looks like a mismatch as Kyle Bradish has a 6.55 ERA. He owns an xFIP lower than Manoah however at 3.88. His K/9 is much better at 9.3 as well. Bradish is a major home run risk however with a 1.9 HR/9 this season. He allowed nine hits and five runs vs. Toronto in June and he has not shown a preference for pitching at home. Bradish has more potential than the numbers suggest but he’ll face a Blue Jays lineup with a season OPS of .770 vs. right-handers. Baltimore can keep up however as the Orioles quietly have a .747 team OPS in the past two weeks. There were 21 hits last night in Baltimore’s 7-4 win even with only three hits with runners in scoring position. Incredibly there were five double plays turned last night as well as it was a game filled with base runners and the scoring could have been even higher. These teams have combed for 59 runs in five meetings and tonight’s total is posted a full run lower than last night based on the flawed perception of Manoah as a top tier starter.