Free Pick | MLB | Monday | Sep. 8

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#953 New York Mets (McLean) -120 over Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) 5:45 PM CT

Aaron Nola has had a fine career, but he is not a useful option for the Phillies right now. Nola has a 6.55 ERA in 33 home innings this season and he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last six starts. He was hit hard at Citi Field in a Phillies loss to the Mets in April and since his return from the IL in August he has an 8.38 ERA. The Mets are 7-2 vs. the Phillies on the season. The Phillies are seven games better than the Mets overall this season while 45-23 at home while the Mets are 31-40 on the road as this price must be kept near-even despite a starting pitching mismatch. Nolan McLean has dazzled for the Mets in four starts and there aren’t many red flags in the numbers. His K/9 is 9.6 while his walk and home run rates are low. He didn’t allow a run vs. the Phillies in eight innings in late August, and his four MLB starts have all come against dangerous lineups and he has handled it extremely well. New York is 4-0 in his starts, and the Mets have scored 34 runs on this long road trip despite being just 3-3. Philadelphia is back at home after playing in Miami yesterday with a difficult 5-4 defeat Sunday and the top bullpen options for the Phillies pitching, which could level the late innings potential against the lesser Mets bullpen.