Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | Aug. 2

After a great July, Nelly’s started August 1-0 last night!

Nelly’s is 7-1 since July 25 and 13-3 since July 13 in MLB picks, while + over 80* on the season.

We have had great results in series 2nd games this season including a 12-3 Saturday record – get tonight’s pick!

#926 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) EVEN over Detroit Tigers (Skubal) 3:05 PM CT

Tarik Skubal is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young award in consecutive seasons, and his presence brings the Tigers a road favorite price, even with the Phillies 34-19 at home this season. The Phillies won 5-4 last night to open this series with all five runs coming in the seventh and eighth innings after falling behind 3-0. Jhoan Duran picked up a clean save in his first appearance with the Phillies while Philadelphia needed only 16 pitches combined from relievers to get through the game compared to the Tigers using four different relievers. Skubal has allowed four runs twice in his last six starts for a bit of recent inconsistency and he has never pitched at Citizens Bank Ballpark. The Phillies lack a great record vs. left-handers but on the season Philadelphia is batting .270 with 4.8 runs per nine vs. lefties at home. Zack Wheeler is on pace to be a runner-up in the NL Cy Young race yet again, but he is having arguably his best MLB season. His K/9 of 11.6 would be a career high while his FIP is just 2.70, second best of his career. He owns a 2.00 ERA at home including six straight quality starts at home with a combined five earned runs allowed in his last 40 home innings. The bullpen has been a potential weak spot for both championship contenders, but Philadelphia made significant moves to improve that situation and Duran should be available again today after making just four pitches on Friday. Detroit has a 6.06 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP from its bullpen in the past 10 games. There should remain some skepticism about Detroit’s overall potential as the great 64-47 record has been built on dominating the AL Central with four mediocre or worse teams in the division below Detroit. Detroit is 15-8 in one-run games for some great fortune while only two games above .500 on the road. While the Phillies have been locked in a tight race in the NL East, Detroit has the largest lead of any division and is just 5-13 since July 9 as the Tigers have not been playing well even though the impact in the playoff picture has been minimal. The Phillies offense has been more reliable in recent weeks while Wheeler is capable of matching Skubal on the mound.