Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | July 1

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#906 Pittsburgh Pirates (Oviedo) +120 over Milwaukee Brewers (Burnes) 3:05 PM CT

The Pirates have won four straight games just as it looked as if the team had collapsed fully from its great start to the season. Pittsburgh is only 4.5 games out of the NL Central lead and the Pirates and Brewers are only nine runs apart in season scoring differential. Pittsburgh is 22-19 at home and the Pirates are 28-24 vs. NL teams this season. Corbin Burnes is a recent Cy Young winner but the 2023 numbers don’t offer a big advantage over Johan Oviedo’s season line. Oviedo has kept the ball in the ballpark and has a steady 3.85 FIP this season. Quietly Oviedo has four quality starts in his past four tries despite not picking up a win and he has a 3.75 home ERA while posting a 3.23 ERA in June. Burnes still commands the price of a top tier NL starter, but his K/9 is just 8.5 this season compared to 12.6 in his 2021 Cy Young season. His walk rate is nearly double his 2021 rate as well and his FIP is 4.33. Burnes had a 4.99 ERA in June and he has allowed 23 hits and 15 runs in his past three starts. Milwaukee no longer has an elite bullpen and the Pirates own a 1.06 bullpen ERA in the past five games. Against right-handers Pittsburgh is batting .301 in the past five games compared to Milwaukee batting .246. Burnes only has three wins in 10 career starts at PNC Park and the Pirates have some momentum after beating the Brewers with a ninth inning rally last night. Pittsburgh does have a few relievers that will likely be unavailable today after back-to-back outings for a possible concern in the late innings, but Milwaukee is 8-8 in Burnes starts and he can’t justify this road favorite price in his current form.