Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | July 12

Nelly’s is 10-3 in Saturday MLB picks this season – check out today’s selection as the All-Star Break approaches!

#961 Seattle Mariners (Kirby) +110 over Detroit Tigers (Mize) 12:10 PM CT

Seattle took out some frustration from a few recent narrow losses with a 12-3 win in Detroit last night, beating 2024 Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and putting a dent in his 2025 repeat chances. Seattle has scored 26 runs on this road trip despite being 1-3 and this is a big start for George Kirby as the Mariners weigh how to approach the upcoming trade deadline. Seattle is the first team outside the current AL Wild Card positions, but it is a crowded picture with seven teams within 4.5 games for the final two spots. Kirby has been a reliable starter for the Mariners since 2022 with some of the best command figures in baseball but his abbreviated 2025 season through only nine starts has provided marginal returns. After two rough outings in May, Kibry has been quite good however, including pitching well on the road and allowing only 10 hits and two runs over his last 18+ innings. Casey Mize is 9-2 but he has modest strikeout numbers and has benefited from an ultra-high strand rate of over 86 percent so far this season. Mize has a FIP more than a run higher than his excellent 2.63 ERA and he has faced mostly weak offensive teams in his recent home starts to pad the numbers. Detroit owns an amazing home record at 32-16 to command this price but the Tigers are just 8-7 in the past 15 home dates and Detroit’s AL-leading record is built on crushing its AL Central foes with an 18-9 record against the four losing teams in the division. Seattle has gone 6-15 vs. AL East teams but is 43-30 vs. everyone else including going 13-8 vs. AL Central teams. The Detroit bullpen is struggling right now with a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.54 ERA in the past 10 games and Seattle has the second most road wins in the AL so far this season.