Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | July 8

Nelly’s won our 7* on Friday as we look to deliver in the final weekend before the All Star break – check out our early pick Saturday!

Bobby Dalton went 2-0 last night and is 29-11 in his last 40 MLB selections!

#969 Seattle Mariners (Woo) +120 over Houston Astros (Valdez) 6:15 PM CT

Seattle is only four games behind Houston for second place in the AL West, recently passing up the Angels while climbing above .500 with a 6-1 start in July. Starting pitching has been a strength for the Mariners and while rookie Bryan Woo will have his innings kept in check this season, he has made the leap to the MLB level with impressive results, posting a 12.2 K/9 in six starts. His ERA is 4.08 but his FIP is nearly a run lower than that and since a rocky MLB debut he has posted a 2.36 ERA in his last five starts. Houston has scored only two runs in the first two games of this series, now just 1-4 vs. the Mariners on the season since eliminating Seattle from the playoffs last October. Framber Valdez has good numbers this season, but the Astros are only 9-7 in his starts. Valdez allowed four runs in his last start and has a 3.46 ERA in his past four outings while taking two losses. Seattle owns a winning record vs. left-handed starters this season and in the past 10 games has averaged 5.3 runs per nine vs. left-handers. Seattle’s pitching staff has surrendered only four combined runs in the past four games, posting a 1.93 bullpen ERA in the past five games compared to Houston’s bullpen featuring a 4.82 ERA in that span. Hunter Brown gave Houston only three innings last night as five relievers needed to pitch at least an inning on Friday to put the Astros in less than ideal shape for the weekend. A low-scoring game is expected, and Woo has proven to have a high-ceiling and could have a slightly longer leash ahead of the All-Star break. These teams are only 15 runs apart in season scoring differential while Houston is only 24-21 at home this season compared to going 55-26 at home in the 2022 championship season as the Astros are clearly not at the same level so far this season.