Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | June 7

Nelly’s has won three in a row in MLB the past three days including a nice underdog win Friday!

Check out Saturday’s pick or join for a subscription!

#925 Chicago Cubs (Taillon) -120 over Detroit Tigers (Holton) 12:10 PM CT

The Cubs have feasted on left-handed pitching this season, scoring 5.3 runs per nine on the season vs. southpaws but lefty Tarik Skubal shut Chicago down yesterday. Skubal has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season and lasts season, while Detroit surprisingly has MLB’s best record at this point in the season. The Cubs had a 9-8 edge in hits yesterday despite the 3-1 defeat at Comerica Park as Detroit won while only going 1-5 with runners in scoring position, getting two solo home runs in the late innings. Chicago used just 10 pitches from its bullpen on Friday and Jameson Taillon has been a solid option for Chicago with a 3.76 ERA in 12 starts. Taillon’s home run risk should be minimized in this ballpark, and he has quietly turned in four consecutive quality starts while having a quality start in six of his last seven starts. Detroit has scored three or fewer runs in six of the past 10 games despite going 7-3 and the recent offensive splits would be quite poor if not for one 13-run effort vs. the struggling White Sox on Monday. Tyler Holton has a good big league track record with a 2.45 ERA in 217 innings, but he has made only 11 career starts and just one this season. That start was back on May 13 and was just an opening five-out showing, just as today’s outing is likely to be only an opening effort. Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe both recently hitting the IL has put great strain on Detroit’s pitching staff as Keider Montero presumably will serve as Saturday’s primary pitcher while another bullpen game is likely tomorrow. Montero has a 5.8 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9 and his FIP is nearly a full run higher than his 4.02 ERA. The Cubs are one of baseball’s top offensive teams this season, including posting a .780 team OPS in the past four weeks as the lineup should be able to have success in a pairing where they will see a lefty and right-hander. Chicago has a .047 bullpen ERA with a 0.71 WHIP from its bullpen in the past 10 games to best even the strong numbers for the Tigers in the late innings and as good as Detroit has been this season, the Cubs have only three fewer wins with a stronger run differential and an 8-2 record vs. the American League.