Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | June 22

Nelly’s is having a great 2025 MLB season including back-to-back wins the past two days!

We’re also 7-3 in our last 10 NBA Playoff picks heading into Game 7 tonight!

#979 Kansas City Royals (Lugo) -110 over San Diego Padres (Vasquez) 3:10 PM CT

The strikeout numbers aren’t great, and his early career track record didn’t suggest this path was likely, but Seth Lugo has undeniably been one of the best pitchers in the AL since joining the Royals last season. He has dominated in three June starts allowing only 10 hits and three runs and his strikeout rate is climbing upward in recent starts with 17 strikeouts over those three June outings. Lugo had a good season pitching for the Padres in 2023 that reestablished him as an MLB starter and he has solid career numbers at Petco Park. Randy Vasquez has a similar profile to Lugo, lacking great strikeout potential but finding ways to be effective. Vaquez has a 5.53 FIP this season sitting next to a respectable 3.70 ERA as he has been very fortunate with a .241 BABIP while stranding nearly 83 percent of his baserunners. Vasquez has allowed eight walks and five home runs in his last four starts as his current season pace is starting to crater. These teams have split the past two days, and the Royals have had an edge in at-bats with runners in scoring position in both games despite not cashing in with a 5-1 loss on Saturday, as a three-run, two-out home run in the 7th inning the difference for the Padres. San Diego is just 6-11 since June 4 as this team hasn’t lived up to its season results lately, particularly on the mound with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP from the bullpen in the past 10 games. Kansas City has won four of its last five games and has gone seven games in a row without allowing more than five runs. With Lugo and a bullpen that rested most of its top options yesterday, Kansas City is a viable threat Sunday to take this series.